敢甘冒风险的人将是07年加拿大联邦大选的赢家
万维读者网 2007-01-11 16:12:33
http://news.creaders.net/headline/newsViewer.php?id=700937&dcid=10
万维读者网记者林孟编译报道：加拿大联邦大选很可能在今年春季举行。谁将赢得这次大选？是目前执政的保守党少数政府，还是刚选出新党领，正蓄势待发的自由党？
政治评论员格怀因(Richard Gwyn)日前在全加销量最大的报纸《多伦多星报》(Toronto Star)着文指出，今年大选的赢家，将是甘冒风险，敢於向选民讲真话的政治领袖。
格怀因说，虽然根据民调显示，多数加拿大人反对军事介入，哪怕是非常小规模的介入阿富汗。但唯一明确反对我国卷入阿富汗事务的联邦新民主党，在民调中的成积却最差。
这似乎暗示，加拿大选民一旦遇到原则问题时，过於瞻前顾後。有人猜测说，新民主党给人的印象是希望从阿富汗完全撤军，而加拿大选民似乎还不想这样做，所以该党在民调中受到挫折。
的确，一个很明显的原因是，我们自己的军人对阿富汗的任务感到骄傲，并不想撤离那里。不容忽视的是，加拿大人为自己的士兵自豪：这些战士们正布署在阿富汗的街道上，而那是多年不见的值得庆贺的事情。
所以，有关加拿大出兵阿富汗的民调，结果是矛盾的，这表明全国对这个问题颇费思量。
在今年春季可能到来的全国大选，也可能成为长期以来最有趣的大选之一，那是因为这场选战将是一次政治上罕见的意念之争。实际上保守党少数政府总理哈珀和联邦自由党领袖迪安这两个主要对手，和现今任何工业化民主体制的政治对手一样，都是非常明智的。
他们两人都对特定的事务有较深的认识，如迪安对环境事务的深入了解，哈珀对小政府的理念等。在某些政治气候下，可以设想他们实际是会按照自己认为对的方向去做，而不只是为了当总理。除了前总理特鲁多(Pierre Trudeau)之外，其他近代加拿大领袖多不具有这种信念特质。
我们的领导人的这些不寻常的特质，加上选民们瞻前顾後，才导致大家对加拿大在阿富汗的角色出现矛盾心态，并使其成为联邦大选中隐藏的的少见伤脑筋的议题。对哈珀和迪安来说，这是挑战公众的问题，而对公众本身来说，则是挑战自己的问题。
在目前的政治气候下，已经有一个对哈珀、迪安、公众来说都具有挑战性的现成议题那就是环境问题，尤其是气候改变问题。最近，几乎每一个人都认为，需要关注全球气候变暖问题。而哈珀在加拿大人应当如何履行《京都议定书》方面，完全判断失误。他不仅没有承诺如何进一步履行该协议，而且还撤回了前政府的承诺。
然而，全球气候变暖是我们面临的最严峻的问题之一，这正是真正的挑战。更重要的是，通常建议的补救措施，如调高冷气度数、以巴士和有轨电车取代私人小汽车作为代步工具等固然有效，但并不能真正解决问题。全球暖化正在改变我们的生活，我们不得不改变我们的生活来适应。
为此，从增加苛捐杂税、制定更多规章条例、降低生活标准(虽然不会低於任由全球气候暖化导致的生活水平下降)等，每一样事情都将受到影响。
迪安对所有有关环境的议题，非常小心地绝不谈及。因为他作为前自由党政府的环境部长，在达到《京都议定书》减少温室气体排放的目标上，是完全失败的。他没有胆量和选民谈这个议题。
哈珀则在阿富汗驻军、入息税信托、承认魁北克是加拿大“国中之国”地位等方面，实际上已经作好了充份准备， 要在大选中谈及这些问题。
对任何政客来说，讲实话都要冒极大的政治风险，但是实话实说，正是一场联邦大选意义之所在。
不管大选实际何时发生，哈珀和迪安这两位领导人必须说实话，而选民也必须认准这一点，并在听到政客说实话之後给予回报。所以从政治意义上来说，2007年或许会是非常有趣的一年。
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Richard Gwyn
Truth might be a winner in 2007
http://www.thestar.com/article/167212
Powered by Delicious
January 03, 2007
Richard Gwyn
According to the polls, most Canadians oppose our military involvement in Afghanistan, even if only very narrowly. Just one party is opposed unambiguously to our involvement in Iraq. That's the NDP. Yet the New Democrats are doing the worst of all the parties in the polls.
What this seems to suggest is that there is a considerable amount of thoughtfulness going on among Canadian voters as they consider the principal issues facing them.
The New Democratic Party is being hurt, it can be guessed, because it has given the impression they it wants to cut and run from Afghanistan. Canadians, it seems, don't want to do this.
One reason, surely, is that it's clear that our own soldiers are proud of their mission and have no desire to be pulled out. No less important is that Canadians are proud of our own soldiers: Those in uniform are being stopped in the street and congratulated in a way that hasn't happened in years.
The result is an ambivalence about our involvement in Afghanistan that bespeaks a national thoughtfulness.
The coming election, probably in the spring, has the potential to be one of the most interesting in a long time. This is because it may just be that political rarity ? an election about ideas.
Start from the fact that both of the principal opponents, Stephen Harper and Stéphane Dion, are unusually intelligent, as bright a pair of political opponents as exist today in any industrial democracy.
No less unusual, both of them care deeply about specific ideas ? the environment in the instance of Dion; smaller government in the case of Harper. It's possible to imagine each of them actually preferring under certain circumstances that they'd rather be right, as they see it, than become prime minister ? a quality of conviction possessed by no modern Canadian leader except Pierre Trudeau.
Combine these unusual characteristics among our leaders with the kind of hard thinking by voters that it takes to produce such ambivalence about our role in Afghanistan, and the potential exists for an electoral contest of quite uncommon intellectual content.
At the same time as Harper and Dion both have what it takes to challenge the public, the public itself is in a mood to challenge them right back.
By circumstance, a defining political issue exists that is going to challenge to the limit both Harper and Dion and the public at large. This is the issue of the environment, specifically that of climate change.
These days, almost everyone has become a believer in the need to address the issue of global warming. Harper made a crashing misjudgment in failing to recognize how deeply attached Canadians were to the Kyoto accord from which, effectively, his government has withdrawn.
All of this, though, is the easy part. The real challenge that global warming presents is one of the toughest we've ever faced.
The truth here is that the commonly proposed remedies, like turning down the thermostat and taking a bus or streetcar rather than the car, add up to little more than feel-good gestures.
They are useful, but they don't address the real problem.
Global warming is changing our lives. To deal with it, we're therefore going to have to change our lives.
Doing this is going to involve everything from higher taxes to more regulation to a lower standard of living (although not lower than one created by out-of-control global warming).
Dion, for all his convictions about the environment, has been careful never to say this.
Indeed, the reason the Liberal government of which Dion was a minister failed so completely to meet our Kyoto targets for greenhouse gas reduction was precisely because it lacked the nerve to tell voters any of this.
Harper ? on Afghanistan, on income trusts, and on Quebec as a "nation" ? has actually shown a greater readiness to tell it as it is.
Telling the truth, a terrible risk for any politician to take, is what an election of ideas is about.
And for such an election to ever actually happen, both leaders have to tell the truth and the voters have to recognize it, and reward it, when they hear it said.
That's why 2007 may be, politically, one of our most interesting years ever.
Richard Gwyn's column usually appears Tuesdays. gwynR@sympatico.ca.
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/columnists/94607
万维读者网 2007-01-11 16:12:33
http://news.creaders.net/headline/newsViewer.php?id=700937&dcid=10
万维读者网记者林孟编译报道：加拿大联邦大选很可能在今年春季举行。谁将赢得这次大选？是目前执政的保守党少数政府，还是刚选出新党领，正蓄势待发的自由党？
政治评论员格怀因(Richard Gwyn)日前在全加销量最大的报纸《多伦多星报》(Toronto Star)着文指出，今年大选的赢家，将是甘冒风险，敢於向选民讲真话的政治领袖。
格怀因说，虽然根据民调显示，多数加拿大人反对军事介入，哪怕是非常小规模的介入阿富汗。但唯一明确反对我国卷入阿富汗事务的联邦新民主党，在民调中的成积却最差。
这似乎暗示，加拿大选民一旦遇到原则问题时，过於瞻前顾後。有人猜测说，新民主党给人的印象是希望从阿富汗完全撤军，而加拿大选民似乎还不想这样做，所以该党在民调中受到挫折。
的确，一个很明显的原因是，我们自己的军人对阿富汗的任务感到骄傲，并不想撤离那里。不容忽视的是，加拿大人为自己的士兵自豪：这些战士们正布署在阿富汗的街道上，而那是多年不见的值得庆贺的事情。
所以，有关加拿大出兵阿富汗的民调，结果是矛盾的，这表明全国对这个问题颇费思量。
在今年春季可能到来的全国大选，也可能成为长期以来最有趣的大选之一，那是因为这场选战将是一次政治上罕见的意念之争。实际上保守党少数政府总理哈珀和联邦自由党领袖迪安这两个主要对手，和现今任何工业化民主体制的政治对手一样，都是非常明智的。
他们两人都对特定的事务有较深的认识，如迪安对环境事务的深入了解，哈珀对小政府的理念等。在某些政治气候下，可以设想他们实际是会按照自己认为对的方向去做，而不只是为了当总理。除了前总理特鲁多(Pierre Trudeau)之外，其他近代加拿大领袖多不具有这种信念特质。
我们的领导人的这些不寻常的特质，加上选民们瞻前顾後，才导致大家对加拿大在阿富汗的角色出现矛盾心态，并使其成为联邦大选中隐藏的的少见伤脑筋的议题。对哈珀和迪安来说，这是挑战公众的问题，而对公众本身来说，则是挑战自己的问题。
在目前的政治气候下，已经有一个对哈珀、迪安、公众来说都具有挑战性的现成议题那就是环境问题，尤其是气候改变问题。最近，几乎每一个人都认为，需要关注全球气候变暖问题。而哈珀在加拿大人应当如何履行《京都议定书》方面，完全判断失误。他不仅没有承诺如何进一步履行该协议，而且还撤回了前政府的承诺。
然而，全球气候变暖是我们面临的最严峻的问题之一，这正是真正的挑战。更重要的是，通常建议的补救措施，如调高冷气度数、以巴士和有轨电车取代私人小汽车作为代步工具等固然有效，但并不能真正解决问题。全球暖化正在改变我们的生活，我们不得不改变我们的生活来适应。
为此，从增加苛捐杂税、制定更多规章条例、降低生活标准(虽然不会低於任由全球气候暖化导致的生活水平下降)等，每一样事情都将受到影响。
迪安对所有有关环境的议题，非常小心地绝不谈及。因为他作为前自由党政府的环境部长，在达到《京都议定书》减少温室气体排放的目标上，是完全失败的。他没有胆量和选民谈这个议题。
哈珀则在阿富汗驻军、入息税信托、承认魁北克是加拿大“国中之国”地位等方面，实际上已经作好了充份准备， 要在大选中谈及这些问题。
对任何政客来说，讲实话都要冒极大的政治风险，但是实话实说，正是一场联邦大选意义之所在。
不管大选实际何时发生，哈珀和迪安这两位领导人必须说实话，而选民也必须认准这一点，并在听到政客说实话之後给予回报。所以从政治意义上来说，2007年或许会是非常有趣的一年。
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Richard Gwyn
Truth might be a winner in 2007
http://www.thestar.com/article/167212
Powered by Delicious
January 03, 2007
Richard Gwyn
According to the polls, most Canadians oppose our military involvement in Afghanistan, even if only very narrowly. Just one party is opposed unambiguously to our involvement in Iraq. That's the NDP. Yet the New Democrats are doing the worst of all the parties in the polls.
What this seems to suggest is that there is a considerable amount of thoughtfulness going on among Canadian voters as they consider the principal issues facing them.
The New Democratic Party is being hurt, it can be guessed, because it has given the impression they it wants to cut and run from Afghanistan. Canadians, it seems, don't want to do this.
One reason, surely, is that it's clear that our own soldiers are proud of their mission and have no desire to be pulled out. No less important is that Canadians are proud of our own soldiers: Those in uniform are being stopped in the street and congratulated in a way that hasn't happened in years.
The result is an ambivalence about our involvement in Afghanistan that bespeaks a national thoughtfulness.
The coming election, probably in the spring, has the potential to be one of the most interesting in a long time. This is because it may just be that political rarity ? an election about ideas.
Start from the fact that both of the principal opponents, Stephen Harper and Stéphane Dion, are unusually intelligent, as bright a pair of political opponents as exist today in any industrial democracy.
No less unusual, both of them care deeply about specific ideas ? the environment in the instance of Dion; smaller government in the case of Harper. It's possible to imagine each of them actually preferring under certain circumstances that they'd rather be right, as they see it, than become prime minister ? a quality of conviction possessed by no modern Canadian leader except Pierre Trudeau.
Combine these unusual characteristics among our leaders with the kind of hard thinking by voters that it takes to produce such ambivalence about our role in Afghanistan, and the potential exists for an electoral contest of quite uncommon intellectual content.
At the same time as Harper and Dion both have what it takes to challenge the public, the public itself is in a mood to challenge them right back.
By circumstance, a defining political issue exists that is going to challenge to the limit both Harper and Dion and the public at large. This is the issue of the environment, specifically that of climate change.
These days, almost everyone has become a believer in the need to address the issue of global warming. Harper made a crashing misjudgment in failing to recognize how deeply attached Canadians were to the Kyoto accord from which, effectively, his government has withdrawn.
All of this, though, is the easy part. The real challenge that global warming presents is one of the toughest we've ever faced.
The truth here is that the commonly proposed remedies, like turning down the thermostat and taking a bus or streetcar rather than the car, add up to little more than feel-good gestures.
They are useful, but they don't address the real problem.
Global warming is changing our lives. To deal with it, we're therefore going to have to change our lives.
Doing this is going to involve everything from higher taxes to more regulation to a lower standard of living (although not lower than one created by out-of-control global warming).
Dion, for all his convictions about the environment, has been careful never to say this.
Indeed, the reason the Liberal government of which Dion was a minister failed so completely to meet our Kyoto targets for greenhouse gas reduction was precisely because it lacked the nerve to tell voters any of this.
Harper ? on Afghanistan, on income trusts, and on Quebec as a "nation" ? has actually shown a greater readiness to tell it as it is.
Telling the truth, a terrible risk for any politician to take, is what an election of ideas is about.
And for such an election to ever actually happen, both leaders have to tell the truth and the voters have to recognize it, and reward it, when they hear it said.
That's why 2007 may be, politically, one of our most interesting years ever.
Richard Gwyn's column usually appears Tuesdays. gwynR@sympatico.ca.
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/columnists/94607