anti-satellite weapons, ASATs
Jeffrey Lewis 相关方面的问题专家，其主要CONCERS之一是：
Chinese ASAT Likely Made Massive Debris（太空垃圾）
这是一个“相当好”的反对理由。
Chinese Test ASAT?
posted Wednesday January 17, 2007 under china, outer space by jeffrey
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1359/chinese-test-asat
I noticed this blurb on SEESAT today:
I’ve been hearing murmurings around the community here in Washington that there may have been an extremely energetic event (satellite break-up?) in the last week or so in the LEO altitude range (700-1000 KM). “An enormous amount of debris” in the range of 1000 pieces may have been created.
I’ve been hearing the same murmurings―and my sources tell me that a major defense publication is working on the story. So, I suppose it is time to mention what is now an open secret inside the US defense community. Massive breakups are unusual. There are pretty much two causes of satellite break-ups: a debris strike or an anti-satellite test.
The defense publication is said to be said to report that this was a Chinese ASAT test.
Taking a look at the Russian and Chinese satellites in that orbit (The two states are most likely to conduct an ASAT test), I see only half a dozen candidates that might have been shot down and one stands out: The FY-1C, an obsolete Chinese meteorological satellite launched in 1999.
Looking at the data at Heaven’s Above, NORAD hasn’t updated the orbital elements for FY-1C since Friday―all the other candidate Russian or Chinese satellites have been updated since then.
(Oh, and if you look at the SPACETRACK data, there are lots more reasons to think this is the one. But that is about all I can say on that subject.)
My guess is that when NORAD updates the data again, we are going to seeing LOTS of debris. (Keep checking Heaven’s Above.)
I spoke with a couple of wonky types who tell me that one of the passes on Thursday―before the satellite dramatically changed orbit―would have taken the satellite over central China during what was early evening on the US east coast―about the same time a visible murmur ran through the Forum on Space and Defense in Colorado Springs.
That, by the way, would be near several of China’s satellite launch centers, which might also host a direct ascent ASAT program.
Guess that is why GoogleEarth blacks out the Xichang Satellite Launch Center.
早前，我已经警告过，中国也许将要发展ASAT，既然美国正在发展空间导弹防护体系
In my forthcoming book, Minimum Means of Reprisal, I warned that China might move toward ASATs as a counter to the development of US missile defense and conventional strike capabilities―although I thought we might have more time than this. (To be precise, I argued it would happen for internal Chinese reasons, rather than as an action-reaction spiral, something I thought might be a slow process).
Although I’ve been skeptical about the quality of our intel on whether China had a direct ascent ASAT program (though not the capability), over the past six months (and especially since the reported laser tracking of a US satellite), lots of not-crazy folks have been saying China’s ASAT work seemed to have been ramping up.
早先，我就希望布什政府出台有关禁止“卫星反制实验”的政策，即使只是出台一些初步的法规原则，也是好的。
但是，布什同志们，认为这是没有必要的，因为“那里根本就没有空间武器竟赛”。
If China has conducted an ASAT test, this is extremely bad. I had been hoping that the Bush Administration would push for a ban on anti-satellite testing, either in the form of a code of conduct or some rules of road. The Bush folks, however, have been fond of saying that wasn’t necessary, because “there is no arms race in space.”
好了，现在有了，短视的中国政府进行实验了。
这种实验也将引发空间垃圾问题。
Well, we have one now, instigated by an incredibly short-sighted Chinese government. (I suspect this test will have also created a massive debris problem).
The United States and other space-faring states should demarche the Chinese government for what is a stupid, clumsy and short-sighted decision.
Although this idiotic move by the Chinese government will demonstrate why we don’t want hit-to-kill ASAT testing in orbit―that will be a long-term recognition. In the short-term, the Chinese will simply not be credible partners in efforts to keep space peaceful. Moreover, other countries could follow suit with their own anti-satellite programs, including the United States.
This is a very disappointing day.
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
An ageing Chinese weather satellite would have been blasted into 40,000 pieces, roughly half of which would stay in orbit for more than a decade (Image: iStockphoto)
4000片太空垃圾
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
FY-1C was struck by a direct ascent ASAT launched from Xichang Space Center at 5:28 p.m. EST on January 11. The satellite was approximately 850 km in altitude and 4 deg. west of the Xichang Satellite Launch Center.
Jeffrey Lewis 相关方面的问题专家，其主要CONCERS之一是：
Chinese ASAT Likely Made Massive Debris（太空垃圾）
这是一个“相当好”的反对理由。
Chinese Test ASAT?
posted Wednesday January 17, 2007 under china, outer space by jeffrey
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1359/chinese-test-asat
I noticed this blurb on SEESAT today:
I’ve been hearing murmurings around the community here in Washington that there may have been an extremely energetic event (satellite break-up?) in the last week or so in the LEO altitude range (700-1000 KM). “An enormous amount of debris” in the range of 1000 pieces may have been created.
I’ve been hearing the same murmurings―and my sources tell me that a major defense publication is working on the story. So, I suppose it is time to mention what is now an open secret inside the US defense community. Massive breakups are unusual. There are pretty much two causes of satellite break-ups: a debris strike or an anti-satellite test.
The defense publication is said to be said to report that this was a Chinese ASAT test.
Taking a look at the Russian and Chinese satellites in that orbit (The two states are most likely to conduct an ASAT test), I see only half a dozen candidates that might have been shot down and one stands out: The FY-1C, an obsolete Chinese meteorological satellite launched in 1999.
Looking at the data at Heaven’s Above, NORAD hasn’t updated the orbital elements for FY-1C since Friday―all the other candidate Russian or Chinese satellites have been updated since then.
(Oh, and if you look at the SPACETRACK data, there are lots more reasons to think this is the one. But that is about all I can say on that subject.)
My guess is that when NORAD updates the data again, we are going to seeing LOTS of debris. (Keep checking Heaven’s Above.)
I spoke with a couple of wonky types who tell me that one of the passes on Thursday―before the satellite dramatically changed orbit―would have taken the satellite over central China during what was early evening on the US east coast―about the same time a visible murmur ran through the Forum on Space and Defense in Colorado Springs.
That, by the way, would be near several of China’s satellite launch centers, which might also host a direct ascent ASAT program.
Guess that is why GoogleEarth blacks out the Xichang Satellite Launch Center.
早前，我已经警告过，中国也许将要发展ASAT，既然美国正在发展空间导弹防护体系
In my forthcoming book, Minimum Means of Reprisal, I warned that China might move toward ASATs as a counter to the development of US missile defense and conventional strike capabilities―although I thought we might have more time than this. (To be precise, I argued it would happen for internal Chinese reasons, rather than as an action-reaction spiral, something I thought might be a slow process).
Although I’ve been skeptical about the quality of our intel on whether China had a direct ascent ASAT program (though not the capability), over the past six months (and especially since the reported laser tracking of a US satellite), lots of not-crazy folks have been saying China’s ASAT work seemed to have been ramping up.
早先，我就希望布什政府出台有关禁止“卫星反制实验”的政策，即使只是出台一些初步的法规原则，也是好的。
但是，布什同志们，认为这是没有必要的，因为“那里根本就没有空间武器竟赛”。
If China has conducted an ASAT test, this is extremely bad. I had been hoping that the Bush Administration would push for a ban on anti-satellite testing, either in the form of a code of conduct or some rules of road. The Bush folks, however, have been fond of saying that wasn’t necessary, because “there is no arms race in space.”
好了，现在有了，短视的中国政府进行实验了。
这种实验也将引发空间垃圾问题。
Well, we have one now, instigated by an incredibly short-sighted Chinese government. (I suspect this test will have also created a massive debris problem).
The United States and other space-faring states should demarche the Chinese government for what is a stupid, clumsy and short-sighted decision.
Although this idiotic move by the Chinese government will demonstrate why we don’t want hit-to-kill ASAT testing in orbit―that will be a long-term recognition. In the short-term, the Chinese will simply not be credible partners in efforts to keep space peaceful. Moreover, other countries could follow suit with their own anti-satellite programs, including the United States.
This is a very disappointing day.
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
An ageing Chinese weather satellite would have been blasted into 40,000 pieces, roughly half of which would stay in orbit for more than a decade (Image: iStockphoto)
4000片太空垃圾
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
FY-1C was struck by a direct ascent ASAT launched from Xichang Space Center at 5:28 p.m. EST on January 11. The satellite was approximately 850 km in altitude and 4 deg. west of the Xichang Satellite Launch Center.
