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Iraq's Future after the U.S. Leaves: Dictatorship, Civil War, or Regional Conflict?
New Paper from NYU’s Center of Global Affairs Presents Fresh Analysis and Three Scenarios from Foreign Policy Experts
NEW YORK July 19, 2007―While the U.S. troop "surge” carries on, amidst continuing calls for a complete troop drawdown, the aftermath in Iraq and the Middle East is the topic of vigorous debate. That Iraq reverts to dictatorship, succumbs to civil war, or becomes an active battleground for the region’s state and non-state rivals are among the most plausible outcomes according to CGA Scenarios: Iraq Post-2010,a new paper released today by the NYU Center for Global Affairs (CGA) at New York University’s School of Continuing and Professional Studies.
One of these scenarios―not mentioned often, if at all, in this public debate―is that Iraq reverts to rule by a dictator sufficiently independent of the external players to unify and stabilize the country. This outcome, say the authors of Iraq Post-2010, may best serve America’s long-term interests.
Iraq Post-2010 reports the results of a recent daylong workshop among a mix of foreign policy scholars and regional experts. Led by Michael Oppenheimer, an associate professor of international affairs at CGA, this group created and debated the consequences of several future scenarios that might follow a vastly diminished U.S. presence in Iraq, expected by 2010 if not sooner.
Oppenheimer said, "The best idea we were able to generate―a National Unity Dictatorship―is the only plausible route to stability in both Iraq and the region, and one we can make more likely if we choose to. This would, of course, represent the failure of democratization in Iraq, at least in the short term.”
The scholars who convened at the Iraq Post-2010 workshop were: Richard Bulliet,professor of history, Columbia University; Steven Cook, Douglas Dillon Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Paul Cruickshank, fellow, NYU School of Law; Gregory Gause, associate professor of political science, University of Vermont; Terree Haidet, Federal Executive Fellow, The Brookings Institution; Toby Jones, Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Swathmore College; Gideon Rose, managing editor, Foreign Affairs; Gary Sick, senior research scholar, Middle East Institute, Columbia University; and Steven Simon, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies, Council on Foreign Relations.
Oppenheimer is a well-known expert in scenario development and foreign policy analysis who has conducted similar workshops and conferences for such entities as the National Intelligence Council, Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Departments of State and Defense.
Explaining the process of the CGA Iraq futures workshop, Oppenheimer said, "We were searching for big ideas that might enable us to think our way out of the Iraqi conundrum.
"The idea was to systematically work through the alternate possibilities, without the wishful thinking or politically motivated predictions of catastrophe that have characterized the political debate. Likelihood was not a criterion, since in my experience such considerations limit creativity and suppress new policy options,” he continued.
The three scenarios detailed in Iraq Post-2010 are:
National Unity Dictatorship: Stable Iraq, Stable Region. A nationalist leader emerges from the chaos of Iraq, a leader who is su
fficiently independent of external players―the U.S., Iran, Al-Qaeda, Arab governments―to establish internal credibility as a unifying figure.
Contained Mess: Unstable Iraq, Stable Region. As Iraq disintegrates into all-out civil war, the neighboring countries, understanding the potential for contagion, radicalization and the threat to their regimes, manage to act collectively to avoid a worst-case regional conflict, even as they pursue proxy war on Iraqi territory.
Contagion: Unstable Iraq, Unstable Region. Iraq’s civil war spreads to adjoining states through refugee flows, growing radicalization of Arab populations, escalating terrorism and the deliberate efforts of regional rivals to destabilize each others’ governments.
A full copy of CGA Scenarios: Iraq Post-2010 is available for download at http://scps.nyu.edu/docs/pdf/scenarios.pdf.
EDITORS: Professor Michael Oppenheimer is available for interview, to discuss the Iraq Post-2010 paper. Please contact Ken Brown at ken.brown@nyu.edu or 212 998-9119.
About the NYU Center for Global Affairs
The NYU Center for Global Affairs, within the University’s School of Continuing and Professional Studies, is located in the school’s state-of-the-art facility in the Woolworth Building ? one of downtown New York’s architectural treasures. The Center encompasses a graduate program in Global Affairs and myriad continuing education courses in international affairs, and presents provocative and timely public events regarding the latest topics in world affairs (formerly held at the NYU Vernon Center for International Affairs).
About The NYU School of Continuing and Professional Studies
The School of Continuing and Professional Studies (www.scps.nyu.edu) is among the 14 colleges and schools that comprise New York University, one of the largest private universities in the United States. Founded in 1934, NYU SCPS each year educates some 4,200 undergraduate and graduate students and enrolls over 44,000 in its continuing education programs. A national leader in adult and professionally-oriented education, NYU SCPS programs span more than 125 fields, and include 14 industry-focused master’s degree programs, and fifteen undergraduate degree programs designed both for working adults and full-time students.
http://www.scps.nyu.edu/about/article.jsp?artId=10199
New Paper from NYU’s Center of Global Affairs Presents Fresh Analysis and Three Scenarios from Foreign Policy Experts
NEW YORK July 19, 2007―While the U.S. troop "surge” carries on, amidst continuing calls for a complete troop drawdown, the aftermath in Iraq and the Middle East is the topic of vigorous debate. That Iraq reverts to dictatorship, succumbs to civil war, or becomes an active battleground for the region’s state and non-state rivals are among the most plausible outcomes according to CGA Scenarios: Iraq Post-2010,a new paper released today by the NYU Center for Global Affairs (CGA) at New York University’s School of Continuing and Professional Studies.
One of these scenarios―not mentioned often, if at all, in this public debate―is that Iraq reverts to rule by a dictator sufficiently independent of the external players to unify and stabilize the country. This outcome, say the authors of Iraq Post-2010, may best serve America’s long-term interests.
Iraq Post-2010 reports the results of a recent daylong workshop among a mix of foreign policy scholars and regional experts. Led by Michael Oppenheimer, an associate professor of international affairs at CGA, this group created and debated the consequences of several future scenarios that might follow a vastly diminished U.S. presence in Iraq, expected by 2010 if not sooner.
Oppenheimer said, "The best idea we were able to generate―a National Unity Dictatorship―is the only plausible route to stability in both Iraq and the region, and one we can make more likely if we choose to. This would, of course, represent the failure of democratization in Iraq, at least in the short term.”
The scholars who convened at the Iraq Post-2010 workshop were: Richard Bulliet,professor of history, Columbia University; Steven Cook, Douglas Dillon Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Paul Cruickshank, fellow, NYU School of Law; Gregory Gause, associate professor of political science, University of Vermont; Terree Haidet, Federal Executive Fellow, The Brookings Institution; Toby Jones, Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Swathmore College; Gideon Rose, managing editor, Foreign Affairs; Gary Sick, senior research scholar, Middle East Institute, Columbia University; and Steven Simon, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies, Council on Foreign Relations.
Oppenheimer is a well-known expert in scenario development and foreign policy analysis who has conducted similar workshops and conferences for such entities as the National Intelligence Council, Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Departments of State and Defense.
Explaining the process of the CGA Iraq futures workshop, Oppenheimer said, "We were searching for big ideas that might enable us to think our way out of the Iraqi conundrum.
"The idea was to systematically work through the alternate possibilities, without the wishful thinking or politically motivated predictions of catastrophe that have characterized the political debate. Likelihood was not a criterion, since in my experience such considerations limit creativity and suppress new policy options,” he continued.
The three scenarios detailed in Iraq Post-2010 are:
National Unity Dictatorship: Stable Iraq, Stable Region. A nationalist leader emerges from the chaos of Iraq, a leader who is su
fficiently independent of external players―the U.S., Iran, Al-Qaeda, Arab governments―to establish internal credibility as a unifying figure.
Contained Mess: Unstable Iraq, Stable Region. As Iraq disintegrates into all-out civil war, the neighboring countries, understanding the potential for contagion, radicalization and the threat to their regimes, manage to act collectively to avoid a worst-case regional conflict, even as they pursue proxy war on Iraqi territory.
Contagion: Unstable Iraq, Unstable Region. Iraq’s civil war spreads to adjoining states through refugee flows, growing radicalization of Arab populations, escalating terrorism and the deliberate efforts of regional rivals to destabilize each others’ governments.
A full copy of CGA Scenarios: Iraq Post-2010 is available for download at http://scps.nyu.edu/docs/pdf/scenarios.pdf.
EDITORS: Professor Michael Oppenheimer is available for interview, to discuss the Iraq Post-2010 paper. Please contact Ken Brown at ken.brown@nyu.edu or 212 998-9119.
About the NYU Center for Global Affairs
The NYU Center for Global Affairs, within the University’s School of Continuing and Professional Studies, is located in the school’s state-of-the-art facility in the Woolworth Building ? one of downtown New York’s architectural treasures. The Center encompasses a graduate program in Global Affairs and myriad continuing education courses in international affairs, and presents provocative and timely public events regarding the latest topics in world affairs (formerly held at the NYU Vernon Center for International Affairs).
About The NYU School of Continuing and Professional Studies
The School of Continuing and Professional Studies (www.scps.nyu.edu) is among the 14 colleges and schools that comprise New York University, one of the largest private universities in the United States. Founded in 1934, NYU SCPS each year educates some 4,200 undergraduate and graduate students and enrolls over 44,000 in its continuing education programs. A national leader in adult and professionally-oriented education, NYU SCPS programs span more than 125 fields, and include 14 industry-focused master’s degree programs, and fifteen undergraduate degree programs designed both for working adults and full-time students.
http://www.scps.nyu.edu/about/article.jsp?artId=10199
