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记得在一个关于COMMODITIES的帖子里面提到过JIM ROGERS和他的那本HOT COMMODITIES的书。这几天没事儿的时候再次翻翻，想到这个帖子所以摘抄一段。先要说的是，他把家搬到了新加坡要自己的孩子学习中文，因此可以由此猜测他长期的投资VISION是怎样的。
摘抄如下：
WARNING No. 2! China has caused some of the gain - and will cause some pain
In the near future, you may see headlines reporting "China in Turmoil!" With an economy that's been growing at a phenomenal rate for a decade (more than 9% in 2006, which was at least three times faster than the U.S. economy), there are bound to be some problems. Mix a massive amount of new market capitalism into a centrally controlled communist system, and you generate enough confusion and inexperience for a hard landing or two.
When the political and economic shock comes, it will send waves throughout the world. Japan's current growth is dependent upon China, which is also importing massive amount of commodities from rest of the world. When the prime minister of China suggested in the spring of 2004 that the economy needed to be slowed down in order to stall inflation, the prices of copper, gold, and oil fell on the news-and so did shares on the Asian and U.S. stock exchanges.
I will take up China in more details in Chapter Five, but up front I want to be clear that when China Sneezes the rest of the world will be reaching for aspirin. In particular, commodity prices will fall, and a lot of investors will panic. You and I, however, will be buying more commodities, we know that history and simple economics are on our side: Supply and demand have conspired to create a historic bull market in commodities, and that means prices should continue to rise at least until 2015. Those 1.3 billion and still counting Chinese are not about to disappear. Buying more commodities cheap during those setbacks for the market is where you will make some real money.
敲字还是挺累的。嘿嘿。
摘抄如下：
WARNING No. 2! China has caused some of the gain - and will cause some pain
In the near future, you may see headlines reporting "China in Turmoil!" With an economy that's been growing at a phenomenal rate for a decade (more than 9% in 2006, which was at least three times faster than the U.S. economy), there are bound to be some problems. Mix a massive amount of new market capitalism into a centrally controlled communist system, and you generate enough confusion and inexperience for a hard landing or two.
When the political and economic shock comes, it will send waves throughout the world. Japan's current growth is dependent upon China, which is also importing massive amount of commodities from rest of the world. When the prime minister of China suggested in the spring of 2004 that the economy needed to be slowed down in order to stall inflation, the prices of copper, gold, and oil fell on the news-and so did shares on the Asian and U.S. stock exchanges.
I will take up China in more details in Chapter Five, but up front I want to be clear that when China Sneezes the rest of the world will be reaching for aspirin. In particular, commodity prices will fall, and a lot of investors will panic. You and I, however, will be buying more commodities, we know that history and simple economics are on our side: Supply and demand have conspired to create a historic bull market in commodities, and that means prices should continue to rise at least until 2015. Those 1.3 billion and still counting Chinese are not about to disappear. Buying more commodities cheap during those setbacks for the market is where you will make some real money.
敲字还是挺累的。嘿嘿。
