地产经济公司终承认：明年加拿大房价将下降zt, 渥太华将基本维持291,000元

[yzulo]

地产经济公司终承认：明年加拿大房价将下降zt
地产经济公司终承认：明年加拿大房价将下降 zt


多伦多信息港 http://www.1tor.com 2009年01月07日

多伦多信息港(记者赵琳报道)：据皇家地产有限公司(Royal LePage Real Estate Services)周二报告，今年加拿大房屋销售持续降温，房屋均价极有可能以3%幅度下降。

报告预计，全国居民住宅转售交易量将下降3.5%(尽管全国最大的地产经销商认为房屋转售交易仍会是个热点)。据初步统计房屋销量已下降1.1%，但在一年前，房地产公司曾预计全国房屋均价将有3.5%的增长。

据皇家地产公司分析，当前经济及政治的不稳定性对消费者信心的打击是影响房屋销量的重大因素。然而，2009年下半年在政府的经济刺激措施及低利率的政策推动下，房屋销售将再次迎来可喜局面。

然而，据布鲁克菲尔德地产服务基金公司(Brookfield Real Estate Services Fund,代号TSX:BRE.UN)预计“房价将只可能做适当调整和修正”，而不会是全面崩盘。预计在全国范围内，房屋均价将从2008年的304,000元下降至295,000元。皇家地产公司报告显示，部分地区的房屋销售及房价还是可圈可点：一些低于全国均价的中等城市，像里贾纳(Regina)和温尼伯(Winnipeg)的房价将有望适度增高；而房价过高的城市，像温哥华等城市将会调低房价。

据皇家地产公司预计，2009年，加拿大大部分城市：哈利法克斯(Halifax)将增长1%至234,300元；蒙特利尔(Montreal)下降1%至254,400元；渥太华将基本维持291,000元；多伦多下降4%至364,800元；温尼伯(Winnipeg)增高4%至204,900元；里贾纳(Regina)增长6%至243,300元；卡尔加里(Calgary)增长1%至402,000元；埃德蒙顿(Edmonton)价格基本保持在333,000元；而温哥华将下降9%至540,100元。

行政总裁菲尔苏帕 (Phil Soper)在一次采访中表示，加拿大房价自2008年早期就已进入一个“循环修正周期”，而不是美国式崩盘。在信贷紧缩及房产抵押率下降的前提下，市场将有望获得改善。另外他还积极的认为，此次房价调整将会让一些滥竽充数的房产代理商退出房产市场，达到优胜劣汰

 

[Hainiu]

渥太华的情况不太一样。看看行家最新的评论

Ottawa Business Journal

News Story UPDATE: Ottawa housing prices to hold steady

By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Tue, Jan 6, 2009 10:00 AM EST

Ottawa's housing market will continue doing what it does best in 2009 - bucking the national trend, that is - according to a report released Tuesday by Royal LePage.

The report said strong job security and strengthening consumer confidence will continue to stimulate the real estate market, adding that Ottawa's market is "unique" in that it has not seen the extreme price fluctuations witnessed in other major Canadian markets. "Instead, the city maintains slow and steady price appreciations, leading to a more sustainable trend line, positioning Ottawa to outperform other markets in 2009," read the report.

Royal LePage said Ottawa's average house price is expected to hold steady at $291,000 in 2009. The number of homes sold in the new year is expected to decrease, however, by five per cent to 13,110 units.

"Looking ahead, Ottawa's real estate market will remain strong and stable through 2009," said Pierre de Varennes, a broker/owner at Ottawa's Royal LePage Performance Realty, in a statement. "Ottawa has not seen the exuberant increases over the past couple years that other markets such as Calgary and Edmonton have experienced.

"Ottawa's house price appreciation trend line is more sustainable and shelters the city from the nervousness of consumers and negative fluctuations felt in other areas of the country."

Meanwhile, Canadian housing market will avoid a U.S.-style crash in prices in 2009, according to a national report from Royal LePage, though the brokerage said prices will continue to fall across the country in the new year.

........

 

[ccc]

没看出有什么区别。两条消息，基本一致。

 

[yycivang]

渥太华的情况不太一样。看看行家最新的评论

Ottawa Business Journal

News Story UPDATE: Ottawa housing prices to hold steady

By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Tue, Jan 6, 2009 10:00 AM EST

Ottawa's housing market will continue doing what it does best in 2009 - bucking the national trend, that is - according to a report released Tuesday by Royal LePage.

The report said strong job security and strengthening consumer confidence will continue to stimulate the real estate market, adding that Ottawa's market is "unique" in that it has not seen the extreme price fluctuations witnessed in other major Canadian markets. "Instead, the city maintains slow and steady price appreciations, leading to a more sustainable trend line, positioning Ottawa to outperform other markets in 2009," read the report.

Royal LePage said Ottawa's average house price is expected to hold steady at $291,000 in 2009. The number of homes sold in the new year is expected to decrease, however, by five per cent to 13,110 units.

"Looking ahead, Ottawa's real estate market will remain strong and stable through 2009," said Pierre de Varennes, a broker/owner at Ottawa's Royal LePage Performance Realty, in a statement. "Ottawa has not seen the exuberant increases over the past couple years that other markets such as Calgary and Edmonton have experienced.

"Ottawa's house price appreciation trend line is more sustainable and shelters the city from the nervousness of consumers and negative fluctuations felt in other areas of the country."

Meanwhile, Canadian housing market will avoid a U.S.-style crash in prices in 2009, according to a national report from Royal LePage, though the brokerage said prices will continue to fall across the country in the new year.

........

Ottawa Start date (Oct. 1999): $145,121
Peak (June 2008): $298,336
Current (Oct. 2008): $280,870
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $223,196

Dec. 2008. $272,192.

How low could they go? If Canadian prices follow U.S. trends, certain cities will experience a major slide in house prices - FP Magazine Daily

 

[Hainiu]

Ottawa Start date (Oct. 1999): $145,121
Peak (June 2008): $298,336
Current (Oct. 2008): $280,870
Predicted (Oct. 2009): $223,196

Dec. 2008. $272,192.

拿 12 月份的平均房价与同一年内的最高平均房价相比，除了可能误导读者以外，没有什么意义。任何一年内每个月的平均房价都有波动，而且淡季（冬季）的房价比旺季（夏季）低也很正常。拿 2008 年 12 月的房价与 2007 年12月的房价相比才能说明一些问题。如下所引述，渥太华 2008 年 12 月的房价与 2007 年12月的房价相比，降低 1.2%。依我愚见，百分之一点二，应该还在正常的波动范围之内，正常年景也会有这样的波动，用不着大惊小怪滴或喜形于色滴。

The Ottawa Real Estate board reported 467 residential units sold in December, a decrease of 18.8 per cent compared to the same month in 2007, when there were 575 units sold.

The average price of residential properties sold in December in the Ottawa area was $272,192, a marginal drop of 1.2 per cent over December 2007.

 

[yycivang]

拿 12 月份的平均房价与同一年内的最高平均房价相比，除了可能误导读者以外，没有什么意义。

it is to show a trend. June, Oct. Dec. Each month is lower than before, see that?

 

[youdianfan]

it is to show a trend. June, Oct. Dec. Each month is lower than before, see that?

agree with LZ. It just shows the trend, and it is clearly showing price decreasing. That is all we care.
即使price下滑1 or 2%算正常, 也毕竟好多年不见下滑0.0001%了. This tells all.

 

[大宋人]

只要不是买多套房进行房产投资，而只是买房自住的大部分人来说，房价下跌总的来说是有好处的。

city3年评估一次房价然后调整property tax吧？ 房价下跌，property tax就不会涨得太凶。对买房自住的大多数房主来说是有好处的。房价下降，对准备买房的人也是利好。

希望Ottawa的房价继续下跌！

 

[then]

假如房价跌到低于贷款额了，那偶的首付岂不是打水漂了。。。

 

[yycivang]

假如房价跌到低于贷款额了，那偶的首付岂不是打水漂了。。。

This the the same problem facing many Canadians who bought houses in the first six months of 2008..

the Globe and Mail reported last month that Canadian banks, trust companies, credit unions and other lenders issued an estimated $56-billion in 40-year mortgages with minimal down payments – seen by critics as being as risky as subprime loans – in the first six months of 2008. Banking and insurance sources told the newspaper that this represented more than half the total new mortgages advanced by the lenders during this period.

One senior Ottawa official said CMHC was such a significant underwriter of 40-year mortgage insurance polices that it currently accounts for two-thirds of the nearly $56-billion of 40-year mortgages that were approved by banks, trust companies, credit unions and other lenders during the first six months of 2008.

Warnings about risky mortgages ignored

 

[KIKI&COCO]

渥太华的情况不太一样。

........

全加拿大其他地区受影响的话，为什么渥太华还这么特别？

即使全体渥太华的居民都靠联邦政府发工资，而且工资还年年涨，那么，联邦政府的财政收入从哪里来？难道就靠渥太华一个城市的税收？或是联邦政府可以给自己印加元花？

 

[xiaoyoyo]

假如房价跌到低于贷款额了，那偶的首付岂不是打水漂了。。。

首付一般至少需要20%
渥太华的房价，特别是比较小的房子，价格还算是比较合理的，怎么样也跌不了这么多吧。
买房自住的人应该不会有太大影响

 

[Hainiu]

全加拿大其他地区受影响的话，为什么渥太华还这么特别？

即使全体渥太华的居民都靠联邦政府发工资，而且工资还年年涨，那么，联邦政府的财政收入从哪里来？难道就靠渥太华一个城市的税收？或是联邦政府可以给自己印加元花？

如果真到了你所担心的程度：联邦政府的财政收入没有了，税务局关门了，发不出工资了，政府也大批裁人了，...， 当然渥太华就会是另一番景象了。不过至少到目前为止，好像还没有多少人担心这种情况的出现。八字没有一丿的事，担心太多，活得太累，是不？

 

[SweetBunny]

Agree with Xiaoyoyo.

首付一般至少需要20%
渥太华的房价，特别是比较小的房子，价格还算是比较合理的，怎么样也跌不了这么多吧。
买房自住的人应该不会有太大影响

 

[SweetBunny]

Well, if you have already bought a new house, even if you worry a lot, you will not be able to change anything (nobody could hold back the wheel of history isn't it?) --- so why worry? Just stay carefree, do a good job at work, enjoy time with your family and take whatever might come with a SMILE.

If you have not bought a house yet --- well, who knows if this is good or bad? Good news is that you might have avoided some financial loss (well hard to say if this is true, because you are still paying your monthly rents for living in an apartment, while getting barely anything from this monthly spending), yet your family is not enjoying the big house convenience and comfort.

And for those who have bought a new big house and have to sell the current one --- I guess it is a townhouse to sell --- so? when economy is bad, the main impact will be on big single houses as their price will drop. But for small townhouses, how big could the impact be? You might have to lose a few thousands on selling the townhouse. Well take it as a fact and move on. Tomorrow is always another day.
Life is so much more than just money (though money is always one of the important things to deal with) --- there are so many more things to do and to think about... Take it easy......