低利率会长期维持吗? 现在房市繁荣是虚幻的吗?

[baseline]

大家讨论一下,利率上涨后会出现房市泡沫破裂吗? 现在50万的房子在5年以内有可能变成40万吗? 现在入市有机会接到最后一棒??????

 

[BigBang]

别的城市不敢说，Ottawa的房价不存在任何泡沫,反而一直相对偏低,所以决不可能大跌.

 

[ConStanTine]

别的城市不敢说，Ottawa的房价不存在任何泡沫,反而一直相对偏低,所以决不可能大跌.

:smokin:

 

[yycivang]

大家讨论一下,利率上涨后会出现房市泡沫破裂吗? 现在50万的房子在5年以内有可能变成40万吗? 现在入市有机会接到最后一棒??????

The bank of Canada governor promised to keep the bank rate at its current level of 0.25 til June 2010, it is 7 months away. Those wanted to buy a house to take advantage of the low rate already bought one, those who are start thinking, it is a bit too late. for the next little while, house price, interest rate, and personal bankruptcy all will continue to go up. You never know you 接到最后一棒 until no one takes it from you.

The volume of consumer bankruptcies rose 47.4 per cent from a year earlier, while increasing 29 per cent from September over August.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...al-bankruptcies-still-soaring/article1371181/

 

[规矩方圆]

别的城市不敢说，Ottawa的房价不存在任何泡沫,反而一直相对偏低,所以决不可能大跌.

何以见得?

渥太华的CONDO价格最近三年里上涨30%,已经赶上多伦多了.

 

[牛爸2009]

anyway，自住的房子，管他升降。

 

[yycivang]

It really depends on who you ask. As an old Chinese saying, "Everyone has his own wisdom".

 

[Consciousness]

现在加拿大的房地产在经济危机的时候反升不降就是因为低利息。现在利息在底部，未来几年经济恢复了，通货膨胀了，利息就要升。利息升高，RENEW的时候MORTGAGE PAYMENT也会升高。除非收入和就业率跟着利息同步升高，不然房价只会跌，或者不升。

 

[阿搜]

现在加拿大的房地产在经济危机的时候反升不降就是因为低利息。现在利息在底部，未来几年经济恢复了，通货膨胀了，利息就要升。利息升高，RENEW的时候MORTGAGE PAYMENT也会升高。除非收入和就业率跟着利息同步升高，不然房价只会跌，或者不升。

Respectfully disagree. Ottawa is a special case.

 

[苦逼热狗]

其他城市可以那么说，渥太华真的是很特别的案例

 

[yycivang]

Respectfully disagree. Ottawa is a special case.

Ottawa is special because the Federally government generally maintain its level of employment during recession, increase its deficit level during recession, and only reduce its workforce at the the economic recovery and deficit is becoming unmanageable..

Is the recession ending? is the deficit growing too big?

 

[hooper]

I do think Ottawa housing price involves a little bubble; but it may never burst as "forced sale" would never be significant in Ottawa until Canada moves its capital to other city. Price may be deviating from the "fair value" for years; yet this is so-called "market".

My opinion is that you should always take the risk that you can control. You are benefiting from using your house, not trading it.

 

[不止]

现在加拿大的房地产在经济危机的时候反升不降就是因为低利息。现在利息在底部，未来几年经济恢复了，通货膨胀了，利息就要升。利息升高，RENEW的时候MORTGAGE PAYMENT也会升高。除非收入和就业率跟着利息同步升高，不然房价只会跌，或者不升。

agree

 

[阿土仔]

这是个老话题了。买了房的看涨，没买的看跌，很正常。阿土虽说夏天买了房，但感觉近期的房价有点儿离谱，超出了其本来价值，主要是低利率和HST所至。随着养房成本的升高，房价可能会得到抑制。

 

[sip]

任何地方都没有直升不降的道理。东京，香港，都是政府所在地。有过跌破一半的历史。华盛顿，也是政府所在地。在美国房价下降也没幸免。房价现在没降不等于永远不降。房价主要是就业和需求支撑着。如果经济不能恢复，政府能撑多久？如果经济恢复了，利率也会上涨。买太贵的房子如果不能负担，肯定得出手。因此要量力而行。

另外，我是买了房子的，断线看涨，长线看跌。