低利率会长期维持吗? 现在房市繁荣是虚幻的吗?

[小珊瑚]

市政府对此有详尽有据的分析。 虽然没人能预计未来，有数据总比没数据强。

http://www.city.ottawa.on.ca/residents/statistics/new_growth/projections/index_en.html

看完后 感受：
1. 买自住房，无法Timing, 在现有市场找最佳deal。
2. 渥太华房价很难降下来，不全是因为政府，而是这里的居民的确投资方面很保守。不妨打听一下周围有房的同事朋友，多少比例是房贷全部付清的。我知道的，如果这两年没有换大房的，多数都已付清，利率跌涨其实与他们无关。房子住就是了。不想搬迁的话，失业率也没啥关系。

 

[ccc]

市政府对此有详尽有据的分析。 虽然没人能预计未来，有数据总比没数据强。

http://www.city.ottawa.on.ca/residents/statistics/new_growth/projections/index_en.html

看完后 感受：
1. 买自住房，无法Timing, 在现有市场找最佳deal。
2. 渥太华房价很难降下来，不全是因为政府，而是这里的居民的确投资方面很保守。不妨打听一下周围有房的同事朋友，多少比例是房贷全部付清的。我知道的，如果这两年没有换大房的，多数都已付清，利率跌涨其实与他们无关。房子住就是了。不想搬迁的话，失业率也没啥关系。

您说的房贷全部付清的人，是中国人还是洋人，大概什么背景（买了多少年了，或者在政府工作。。。）？

 

[ccc]

任何地方都没有直升不降的道理。东京，香港，都是政府所在地。有过跌破一半的历史。华盛顿，也是政府所在地。在美国房价下降也没幸免。房价现在没降不等于永远不降。房价主要是就业和需求支撑着。如果经济不能恢复，政府能撑多久？如果经济恢复了，利率也会上涨。买太贵的房子如果不能负担，肯定得出手。因此要量力而行。

另外，我是买了房子的，断线看涨，长线看跌。

这属于冷静的思维。渥太华的房价有过下跌的历史。

如果是仅仅有自用房，不炒卖，涨跌无关紧要。对于准备买房的人，是个严峻的问题。

 

[小珊瑚]

您说的房贷全部付清的人，是中国人还是洋人，大概什么背景（买了多少年了，或者在政府工作。。。）？

中国人，洋人都有。俺认识好几个土生洋人，比中国人节俭的多，比如两口都挣十来万年薪，还只开一辆又小又旧的车，另一方乘公车。。当然大多数是在前些年房价较低时买了第一个房。 这些人支撑着resale market，不会有急售的现象。

大多数都不在政府工作。 只能说，Ottawa 有些人不差钱。

 

[Mikejia]

When could I pay all morgage back? it will be a long story

 

[hooper]

endless debate....... whatever......

 

[norstarcfc]

For those who believe most Canadians had paid off their mortgage I have some interesting numbers extracted from CMHC web site:

CMHC insured mortgages by year

1987....$456,103,938.17
1988....$773,187,552.37
1989....$1,939,920,245.24
1990....$2,102,644,809.58
1991....$3,187,404,499.02
1992....$5,959,419,219.49
1993....$6,579,821,541.24
1994....$3,719,673,067.01
1995....$1,557,252,819.43
1996....$1,722,701,047.37
1997....$6,948,969,696.26
1998....$9,075,660,693.05
1999....$12,853,778,237.46
2000....$11,013,867,855.64
2001....$8,906,429,112.61
2002....$22,643,674,837.53
2003....$32,702,162,429.44
2004....$37,713,498,784.14
2005....$46,001,515,493.69
2006....$58,446,930,419.30
2007....$85,672,903,553.22
2008....$144,972,174,910.62
2009....$189,000,000,000.00 EST

 

[bzb]

佛曰，一切皆空，当然所有的东西都是虚幻的啦。如果有足够长命，等一切都变尘埃，不就全部免费了吗?

 

[yycivang]

For those who believe most Canadians had paid off their mortgage I have some interesting numbers extracted from CMHC web site:

CMHC insured mortgages by year

1987....$456,103,938.17
1988....$773,187,552.37
1989....$1,939,920,245.24
1990....$2,102,644,809.58
1991....$3,187,404,499.02
1992....$5,959,419,219.49
1993....$6,579,821,541.24
1994....$3,719,673,067.01
1995....$1,557,252,819.43
1996....$1,722,701,047.37
1997....$6,948,969,696.26
1998....$9,075,660,693.05
1999....$12,853,778,237.46
2000....$11,013,867,855.64
2001....$8,906,429,112.61
2002....$22,643,674,837.53
2003....$32,702,162,429.44
2004....$37,713,498,784.14
2005....$46,001,515,493.69
2006....$58,446,930,419.30
2007....$85,672,903,553.22
2008....$144,972,174,910.62
2009....$189,000,000,000.00 EST

There are always exceptions.

Your number shows majority of the new buyers are taking a bigger and longer mortgage.

 

[lifeisfun]

Ottawa is special because the Federally government generally maintain its level of employment during recession, increase its deficit level during recession, and only reduce its workforce at the the economic recovery and deficit is becoming unmanageable..

Is the recession ending? is the deficit growing too big?

You may not live in Ottawa long enough. Fed government may not lay off people in recession, but it will when the economy is getting better. Don't you see that the government is running high deficit now, How come it will maintain the same level of government all the time. In early 90s, liberal government lay off 40,000 government employees if I was not mistaken.

So I don't think Ottawa is a special case.

 

[lifeisfun]

I do think Ottawa housing price involves a little bubble; but it may never burst as "forced sale" would never be significant in Ottawa until Canada moves its capital to other city. Price may be deviating from the "fair value" for years; yet this is so-called "market".

My opinion is that you should always take the risk that you can control. You are benefiting from using your house, not trading it.

The issue right now is that many people bought second house as investment, that is the bubble. In any case, I feel hosuing going up like this won't be good for everyone. 15 years ago, the housing in Ottawa is only half of the current price and the salary at that time is no worse than right now. So tell me if the skyrocketing housing is good or not for the society. Certainly, you could buy houses as investment but the condition is the price would go up but that is quite risky. I would rather see the housing market go down so that everyone could have affordable housing, but invest your money somewhere else.

 

[lifeisfun]

市政府对此有详尽有据的分析。 虽然没人能预计未来，有数据总比没数据强。

http://www.city.ottawa.on.ca/residents/statistics/new_growth/projections/index_en.html

看完后 感受：
1. 买自住房，无法Timing, 在现有市场找最佳deal。
2. 渥太华房价很难降下来，不全是因为政府，而是这里的居民的确投资方面很保守。不妨打听一下周围有房的同事朋友，多少比例是房贷全部付清的。我知道的，如果这两年没有换大房的，多数都已付清，利率跌涨其实与他们无关。房子住就是了。不想搬迁的话，失业率也没啥关系。

The issue is not the first house, but the second and the third ones. The issue also exist in the big houses, not small ones.

I feel there are two main reasons for housing increase, one is the upcoming HST, the second is low interest rate, the first factor drive many people to buy new big house (above 400,000), and the second drive many to buy second or third houses.

There is nothing wrong with investining in housing and buying big houese, but when everyone jump into that and the house sale inumber ncrease by almost 200% (The number from GTA), that should make you think twice, providing that such spiking occur after a 10-year housing booming and we are theoretically still in recession.

 

[ccc]

For those who believe most Canadians had paid off their mortgage I have some interesting numbers extracted from CMHC web site:

CMHC insured mortgages by year

1987....$456,103,938.17
1988....$773,187,552.37
1989....$1,939,920,245.24
1990....$2,102,644,809.58
1991....$3,187,404,499.02
1992....$5,959,419,219.49
1993....$6,579,821,541.24
1994....$3,719,673,067.01
1995....$1,557,252,819.43
1996....$1,722,701,047.37
1997....$6,948,969,696.26
1998....$9,075,660,693.05
1999....$12,853,778,237.46
2000....$11,013,867,855.64
2001....$8,906,429,112.61
2002....$22,643,674,837.53
2003....$32,702,162,429.44
2004....$37,713,498,784.14
2005....$46,001,515,493.69
2006....$58,446,930,419.30
2007....$85,672,903,553.22
2008....$144,972,174,910.62
2009....$189,000,000,000.00 EST

这些数字说明一个严重的问题，债台高筑，房奴越来越多。

这不仅仅意味着贷款年限长、贷款额高（房子大），也说明首期付款过少。

 

[ccc]

中国人，洋人都有。俺认识好几个土生洋人，比中国人节俭的多，比如两口都挣十来万年薪，还只开一辆又小又旧的车，另一方乘公车。。当然大多数是在前些年房价较低时买了第一个房。 这些人支撑着resale market，不会有急售的现象。

大多数都不在政府工作。 只能说，Ottawa 有些人不差钱。

我的同事，无论老外还是老中，付清房屋贷款的凤毛麟角，包括夫妇年收入高达20万上下的（房子买了１２年了，还需两、三年时间才能付清，总共１５年。当然，他们绝对不做房奴，生活开销较大。）。

 

[hooper]

The issue right now is that many people bought second house as investment, that is the bubble. In any case, I feel hosuing going up like this won't be good for everyone. 15 years ago, the housing in Ottawa is only half of the current price and the salary at that time is no worse than right now. So tell me if the skyrocketing housing is good or not for the society. Certainly, you could buy houses as investment but the condition is the price would go up but that is quite risky. I would rather see the housing market go down so that everyone could have affordable housing, but invest your money somewhere else.

非常有价值的看法。那你觉得这种借钱买第二处房产的行为对OTTAWA房市的影响是长期的还是暂时的？OTTAWA的房市会有大的起伏吗？近期还是远期？

另外，对于经济形式的判断，小处着手是必要的，但是也稍微宏观一些，几个邻居和认识的人不代表POPULATION，家庭年收入20多万的好象是很少数吧，茶余饭后的拖出来讲讲算是消遣，但是做为OTTAWA RESIDENTS的话，好象不太有代表性。话又说回来了，从亚洲过来的兄弟们在思想上早都习惯了做一辈子房奴，和北京东京香港相比，很多人还觉得这里的房子又大又便宜呢，所以有时候我也开玩笑的说，难怪本地人不喜欢我们，其实房价就是被我们给推上去的，呵呵呵呵。。。。。。

不过我倒是很高兴报复一下资本主义，昨天一个RADIO （CFRA 580）还说中国是COMMAND ECONOMY，既然他们加拿大自诩是OPEN MARKET，那他们的居民就得付出点代价，那天我老婆买月票的时候还有人说我们移民抢了他们工作之类的话，摆明了种族歧视，哼，我交的税养活的竟然是这么一群贱人，所以就算我破产也要把房价推上去，让这些贱人没房住，冻死他们。

晚上无聊才上来唠叨两句，对事不对人。