今天开始每天盘前盘后一贴，抛砖引玉?
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lazycatcat
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Hope more focus on insights. Reading charts are a bit like reading tea leaves ... Maybe you have more insights and positive experiences here...
Hope more focus on insights. Reading charts are a bit like reading tea leaves ... Maybe you have more insights and positive experiences here...
Lazycatcat, great to see your post and encouragement.
I am true believer of charts. For little player, what do u have except charts? We do not have insider's info at all.
作为小散户，我们没有内幕消息，只能从图上看到蛛丝马迹。诚然图也会骗人，但从
我数年风雨博杀的经验看，大盘和大股(AAPL，NFLX，PCLN，AMZN等等)我看还是按
图走的，我们除了按图索骥外还有什么办法呢。我最喜欢MM的交易，特别是GS超过
500-1000口的大交易。花旗基本都是做错，高位入货站岗放哨，低位斩仓割肉。我
曾经大亏过，最近好像学到点心得，很想让大家一起少亏钱。呵呵。机构非常狡猾，
特别高盛极其狡猾，华旗笨的可爱，基本没做对过几次，呵呵!!!!!!!!!!
我觉得看图顺势操作，不猜底，不猜顶，控制仓位，严格坚决挺损是我用血的代价悟
到的不亏宝典，呵呵!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am true believer of charts. For little player, what do u have except charts? We do not have insider's info at all.
作为小散户，我们没有内幕消息，只能从图上看到蛛丝马迹。诚然图也会骗人，但从
我数年风雨博杀的经验看，大盘和大股(AAPL，NFLX，PCLN，AMZN等等)我看还是按
图走的，我们除了按图索骥外还有什么办法呢。我最喜欢MM的交易，特别是GS超过
500-1000口的大交易。花旗基本都是做错，高位入货站岗放哨，低位斩仓割肉。我
曾经大亏过，最近好像学到点心得，很想让大家一起少亏钱。呵呵。机构非常狡猾，
特别高盛极其狡猾，华旗笨的可爱，基本没做对过几次，呵呵!!!!!!!!!!
我觉得看图顺势操作，不猜底，不猜顶，控制仓位，严格坚决挺损是我用血的代价悟
到的不亏宝典，呵呵!!!!!!!!!!!!
lazycatcat
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The issue with charting is that everyone knows about it. Plus, the guys with Bloomberg terminals know it even better. So, there is really no advantage as far as I can see.
An interesting idea is on monetizing risk position. This is a bit long topic ...
An interesting idea is on monetizing risk position. This is a bit long topic ...
lazycatcat
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Taking ZST, 3 x bear of silver, as an example. If you get in the right direction, it works fine. However, there are two questions:
1. What happen if you are wrong ?
2. How large a position you are able to commit ?
If answer to either of these two questions is not positive, then any gain is rather limited.
Now, taking another angle. Say you are long on silver and thus build a sizable position. On the other hand, you are not sure of short term direction of silver. Then, ZST is useful as a hedge.
Now, if ZST position is static, the hedging is probably meaningless. If fully hedged, summary result is zero. If partially hedged, it is just an offset of volatility. Therefore, the question is if ZST can serve as a hedge AND a trade position, to a certain degree.
Obviously, any 3 x bear has high volatility and thus high premium for calls. One potential way is to sell off money covered call positions. This way you get some profits while waiting for the raging bull to come back.
Silver is not exactly a good example since it is unknown if long-term bull is true or not. S&P 500 probably is a better example. Or better yet, some specific industries that are being beaten down....
Now, you can build a trade position that probably makes some sense and with controlled risks. The bottom line of such position is a commitment in something ...
While doing this regular trading, one probably can spend time on financial reports of companies and probably will gain insight one day on great companies like apple in its early stage ...
1. What happen if you are wrong ?
2. How large a position you are able to commit ?
If answer to either of these two questions is not positive, then any gain is rather limited.
Now, taking another angle. Say you are long on silver and thus build a sizable position. On the other hand, you are not sure of short term direction of silver. Then, ZST is useful as a hedge.
Now, if ZST position is static, the hedging is probably meaningless. If fully hedged, summary result is zero. If partially hedged, it is just an offset of volatility. Therefore, the question is if ZST can serve as a hedge AND a trade position, to a certain degree.
Obviously, any 3 x bear has high volatility and thus high premium for calls. One potential way is to sell off money covered call positions. This way you get some profits while waiting for the raging bull to come back.
Silver is not exactly a good example since it is unknown if long-term bull is true or not. S&P 500 probably is a better example. Or better yet, some specific industries that are being beaten down....
Now, you can build a trade position that probably makes some sense and with controlled risks. The bottom line of such position is a commitment in something ...
While doing this regular trading, one probably can spend time on financial reports of companies and probably will gain insight one day on great companies like apple in its early stage ...
lazycatcat
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I don't understand your mentioning of GS. I don't think it is possible for anyone to understand risks inside GS or Citi.
Just pull out a 10-K and read it. Then ask if you can really gain any insight.
On the other hand, take a look at Costco, trp or enb and ask the question again.
In US bank sector, WFC and USB are heavily owned by Berkshire and Fairfax Financials. The key is not whether they will rise or fall. The key is commitment by these two great investors probably removes qualitative risks of these banks. In other words, there are probably no huge skeletons in their cupboard ...
Just pull out a 10-K and read it. Then ask if you can really gain any insight.
On the other hand, take a look at Costco, trp or enb and ask the question again.
In US bank sector, WFC and USB are heavily owned by Berkshire and Fairfax Financials. The key is not whether they will rise or fall. The key is commitment by these two great investors probably removes qualitative risks of these banks. In other words, there are probably no huge skeletons in their cupboard ...
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Hope more focus on insights. Reading charts are a bit like reading tea leaves ... Maybe you have more insights and positive experiences here...
是FA好还是TA更好，其实并不重要，重要的是能用好TA/FA能为你挣钱才是正道。
My understanding:
FA == What.
TA == When.
FA decides which one to be picked to short or long.
TA decides when you should long or short. TA is for timing.
Let's pick up NFLX and YOKU as example.
I have tols my friends to short YOUK during high, because we know the facts:A) YOKU will take 100 years to break even (夸张一下,别说我马后炮啊). B) 土豆上市，竞争者来了。C)报表没法看，真不知道高盛他们怎么算出60-80块的。
We concluded YOKU (DANG very similar) shortable.
But when? I would have to look at the chart.大家都会看图，我是初学者就不献丑了。呵呵。
FA == What.
TA == When.
FA decides which one to be picked to short or long.
TA decides when you should long or short. TA is for timing.
Let's pick up NFLX and YOKU as example.
I have tols my friends to short YOUK during high, because we know the facts:A) YOKU will take 100 years to break even (夸张一下,别说我马后炮啊). B) 土豆上市，竞争者来了。C)报表没法看，真不知道高盛他们怎么算出60-80块的。
We concluded YOKU (DANG very similar) shortable.
But when? I would have to look at the chart.大家都会看图，我是初学者就不献丑了。呵呵。
看你那么喜欢FA，家门口就有一个 DOL。TO（Dollarama） ，怎么不早点拿起来掰掰？
要是希腊Default或部分Default,首先欧洲银行遭殃，然后美国这些银行难道就受益？？不会受牵连？
约翰保尔森在2007至08年赌次按爆煲，大赚200亿美元，成为最赚钱对冲基金经埋兼获封为「沽神」。他去年透过炒金再赚50亿美元。不过，今年环球股市波动，金融股大跌，保尔森持有的美银等银行股暴跌，旗下两隻最大对冲基金今年均蚀超过两成，根据汇丰私人银行最新报告，其中一隻基金——Paulson's Advantage Plus截至8月底更蚀33.95％。
现时持有保尔森基金的投资者最迟要在10月底，决定是否在年底前赎回基金。《华尔街日报》引述知情人士报道，保尔森旗下基金的低迷表现，引起竞争对手关注他或承受巨大资金赎回压力，一些对冲基金与交易对手虎视眈眈，试图预测保尔森需要卖哪些资产来套现。
据报道，至少一家公司在最近以低于市价查询保尔森的基金是否有意出售雷曼兄弟的债券，但遭拒绝。虽然雷曼已经倒闭，但雷曼债券仍在市场进行买卖。保尔森的基金现持有现值20至30亿美元雷曼债券，若全数出售可套现5亿美元，仍高于当年保尔森的平均买入价。
对冲基金业当前确实面对巨大赎回压力。全球最大上市对冲基金Man Group昨宣布，过去3个月管理的资产劲缩60亿美元，跌幅超过8％，主要因为金融市场震盪引发投资者赎回资金潮及投资失利。Man Group股价昨天一度急跌22%。
根据Man Group公布的资料，它管理的资产由6月底的710亿美元缩少至目前的650亿美元，当中客户赎回26亿美元现金，行政总裁克拉克（Peter Clarke）称，有数名客户在9月分别赎回数亿美元的基金，「预计投资者会继续避险，相信要待投资市场明朗化，情就可以改善」。此外，基金投资失利蒙受15亿美元损失，加上美元转强，炒欧元及澳元额外输掉19亿美元。
From 约翰保尔森, did anyone learn the lesson? 他重仓BAC和高盛，按图BAC和GS到目前都不是做多的图，我不会在95时继续不依不饶地
空GS。但按趋势做的人未必COVER GS的空头!我喜欢拿中间的那一大段。呵呵。
现时持有保尔森基金的投资者最迟要在10月底，决定是否在年底前赎回基金。《华尔街日报》引述知情人士报道，保尔森旗下基金的低迷表现，引起竞争对手关注他或承受巨大资金赎回压力，一些对冲基金与交易对手虎视眈眈，试图预测保尔森需要卖哪些资产来套现。
据报道，至少一家公司在最近以低于市价查询保尔森的基金是否有意出售雷曼兄弟的债券，但遭拒绝。虽然雷曼已经倒闭，但雷曼债券仍在市场进行买卖。保尔森的基金现持有现值20至30亿美元雷曼债券，若全数出售可套现5亿美元，仍高于当年保尔森的平均买入价。
对冲基金业当前确实面对巨大赎回压力。全球最大上市对冲基金Man Group昨宣布，过去3个月管理的资产劲缩60亿美元，跌幅超过8％，主要因为金融市场震盪引发投资者赎回资金潮及投资失利。Man Group股价昨天一度急跌22%。
根据Man Group公布的资料，它管理的资产由6月底的710亿美元缩少至目前的650亿美元，当中客户赎回26亿美元现金，行政总裁克拉克（Peter Clarke）称，有数名客户在9月分别赎回数亿美元的基金，「预计投资者会继续避险，相信要待投资市场明朗化，情就可以改善」。此外，基金投资失利蒙受15亿美元损失，加上美元转强，炒欧元及澳元额外输掉19亿美元。
From 约翰保尔森, did anyone learn the lesson? 他重仓BAC和高盛，按图BAC和GS到目前都不是做多的图，我不会在95时继续不依不饶地
空GS。但按趋势做的人未必COVER GS的空头!我喜欢拿中间的那一大段。呵呵。
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