九月29日盘后，九月30日个人瞎猜计划

[nepean_01]

懒猫和真殴(oureal)，谢谢你们的帖子，说明还有人看。我的初衷是和咱们渥村与恶庄搏斗的
朋友们一起分享一点信息。虽然与恶庄搏斗数年，但我觉得自己好像刚刚上路，刚
刚开始明白怎么稳定赚钱，想与大家交流交流。当然这样也会逼我自己认真做功课。
另外还想与我外地的朋友一起切磋。我试过用GMAIL，但不方便上传图片。

懒猫，看看我今天CF的操作，您不能不信服图和盘面(看盘)是一切!!!!!!!!
让我为您分析一下:
1。我前一晚做完功课，定下计划: 132。20少量买入第一仓。可气的是，一开始只
成交了2股，不到10分钟强力反弹了2块，我看压力就在134-135，可惜只成交了2股，
没卖掉。
2。我看图，把当天的停损定在当时最低价减0。20的位置。在我小亏停损后，CF随
着大盘在收盘前狂泄。无论入场和出场，我严格按图索骥，这样我把损失控制在了
最低位。
3。我觉得想高盛，美林等大庄现在对股指期货的打压和拉抬都比以前要强烈，因为
他们要把空间拉出来才能盈利。高盛操盘赚钱已经是它最重要的业绩成分了。我见
过他们一个10000口的单(STRADDLE的多空双向的单)。这时长期投资可能是竹篮打水，
上下千点地拉，他们把钱都赚了，那所谓长期投资的还在原地踏步。

 

[nepean_01]

很多人认为我们小散是市场中最可怜的，我倒觉得我们其实要比JOHN PAULSON这样
的大基金好过多了，他重仓的BAC和GS都套在高位，他的多仓我看过5年都不一定
能回来了，当然他HEDGE的空头应该小赚了。我们啪啪屁股，说清仓，几分钟都清完了，
他们要出几个月吧? 呵呵。

 

[lazycatcat]

Thanks for sharing your experiences with all of us. Trading based on charts is not my style and thus it is good to follow your stories.

You are right that when hedge fund lose, they lose big. However, Paulson's style is probably mis-understood. His recent loss is trivial versus his win in 2008.

The key is not that he earned money in that crisis but how. He essentially spotted wrongly priced risk and took advantage of it. You could find the book named like largest gamble etc in library.

 

[lazycatcat]

For trading, I like hedged bet more. Taking Yahoo as an example - I am not doing this but just using it as an example.

Yahoo's closing price is $13.17 and Jan 2014 $10 put is at $1.95. Let's say I think Yahoo could be worth $20 in an acquisition and I want to play this possibility. What I will do will be something like this:

1. Buy 100 shares of Yahoo at $13.17 and buy Jan 2014 $10 put at $1.95. This gives a total cost of $15.13.

2. Sell Oct $16 call for $0.21 and continue to sell off-money monthly calls.

If Yahoo crashes below $10 to $5.00. Total loss is $3.17 + $1.95 = $5.13. Because the put is two years away, you can still sell calls at $11 albeit for a small premium to recover your loss...

For trading, I think it is essential to know two things:

1. Biggest potential loss.
2. Possible ways to recover loss.

 

[lazycatcat]

懒猫和真殴(oureal)，谢谢你们的帖子，说明还有人看。我的初衷是和咱们渥村与恶庄搏斗的
朋友们一起分享一点信息。虽然与恶庄搏斗数年，但我觉得自己好像刚刚上路，刚
刚开始明白怎么稳定赚钱，想与大家交流交流。当然这样也会逼我自己认真做功课。
另外还想与我外地的朋友一起切磋。我试过用GMAIL，但不方便上传图片。

懒猫，看看我今天CF的操作，您不能不信服图和盘面(看盘)是一切!!!!!!!!
让我为您分析一下:
1。我前一晚做完功课，定下计划: 132。20少量买入第一仓。可气的是，一开始只
成交了2股，不到10分钟强力反弹了2块，我看压力就在134-135，可惜只成交了2股，
没卖掉。
2。我看图，把当天的停损定在当时最低价减0。20的位置。在我小亏停损后，CF随
着大盘在收盘前狂泄。无论入场和出场，我严格按图索骥，这样我把损失控制在了
最低位。
3。我觉得想高盛，美林等大庄现在对股指期货的打压和拉抬都比以前要强烈，因为
他们要把空间拉出来才能盈利。高盛操盘赚钱已经是它最重要的业绩成分了。我见
过他们一个10000口的单(STRADDLE的多空双向的单)。这时长期投资可能是竹篮打水，
上下千点地拉，他们把钱都赚了，那所谓长期投资的还在原地踏步。

If your position is a bit large and you are not able to stop-loss, what can you do ?

 

[nepean_01]

Dear Lazycatcat,
Thanks for your sharing. The way you just described is what I usually do. I either do cover call on share i bought, or building up straddle (call and put) while the major event is coming, like FED meeting, normally will down a lot this year!!!!!!!!!

I do think the best trade is the SAFEST trade not the biggest possible gain trade!

Thanks again,
The One and Only one Proud Nepeaner

 

[nepean_01]

不过，我还要提一句，不看图怎么敢下单呢?怎么知道是卖出PUT LGE 或CALL LEG?
反正我看图。

呵呵。不过我还是很钦佩不看图，看盘，不看关键支撑和阻力位，敢下单的勇气。呵呵。真不是讽刺。

您说得对，他次贷豪赌赚的钱，够他再亏几年的了。我们跟他们不再一个层次上。
我们要操心的只是那点少得可怜的本金别丢给花街的狗吃了。不过，他再这么赌，总有一天被清盘吧。

我发现，我们交易的根本战略是一样的: 控制风险! 可能我胆子小点，非得卡住点
位，我一分都不多给的!

 

[nepean_01]

If your position is a bit large and you are not able to stop-loss, what can you do ?

这个真没想过，只有可爱的笨猪(MR。 BEN FROM FED) 不需要停损吧。

您尊敬的John Paulson还要在我们伟大祖国的骗子公司SINO ( I would say most Chinese companies are cheating on accoutning!!!!!!!!!)上停损。呵呵。这辈子我估计很难赶上这赌徒了。说老实话，他是个彻头彻尾赌徒，我一点看不上他的操作方式。

 

[nepean_01]

If I were fund manager, I will long CF,POT,NFLX, and shart GS and all banks, hehehe. I did tell my friend BAC is so weak last month, but look at at what level now? I felt guilty about my mistake! You and 99% of people would say BAC is dirty cheap at 6, right? But let me ensure, by my trading model, BAC,C,JPM,MS and GS are clearly a 100000% short that this level at this point. My model follows TREND! If trend gets changed one day, I think it will, my trading model will tell me to go back to long.

Hey, finding a trading model works for you is the most important thing. As for me, following the trend, control my positioning size (T1,T2,T3 on different price level), and setup tight stop lose is my model, and it seems work for me.

Again, thanks for being here.

真得很高兴能看到您的帖子。有胜于无啊。

 

[nepean_01]

懒猫，您也在渥村这小农庄吗?呵呵。

 

[Smile2010]

It is Buffett with two t's. I don't do short-term tradings except selling covered calls ...


For now, hedged trading with a pivotal point is probably pretty good. For example, holding good banks like wfc and usb while using faz for hedging and certain profit ...

I am not good at figuring out what will happen tomorrow etc ...

Are you sure your hedging modle works ? Have you done your homework about faz? I am 100% sure that your will lose money when you long good banks such as wfc ,usb ,aslo FAZ as hedging if big market keeps dropping.

Check FAZ and all your banks chart since year 2008? Btw , FAZ did reverse split after 2009.

 

[nepean_01]

Long term holding on FAZ/FAS,TNA/TZA will lose money significantly because of 时间衰减!!!!!!!

If you could short both of them, you will 100000% sure win!!!!


I never used FAZ as hedge of GS shares!!!!!!

The hedge play:
A. GS 1000 shares, at major resistant, I would do a covered call.
B. Before FED meeting on deciding QE3, buy FAS's same strike CALL and PUT. PUT LEG翻了三倍。CALL LEG worthless, who cares?

Is it clear? This is ABC.

我怀疑您是不是真玩OPTION。呵呵。得罪了。

 

[nepean_01]

请不清楚的别害人啊!!!!! 我很担心我好心的贴子误导别人赔钱。

我偶尔会疯狂一下，但贴出来的都是较安全的，呵呵。

 

[nepean_01]

从周线上看，对非常非常悲观，丝丝凉意从我家地下室直冒起。我空仓过周末。呵呵。

WEEKLY MACDs REMAIN QUITE BEARISH

By Tom Bowley

The weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has always been a favorite indicator of mine. It provides a "big picture" outlook of the market and helps me take a step back from the day to day swings of the market. With the Volatility Index (VIX) in the stratosphere and closing close to 43 on Friday, the whipsaw action is quite unnerving. Taking a step back and looking at the big picture helps to ease some of that daily stress and makes it easier to focus on an appropriate trading strategy. I realize the MACD is only one indicator, and it won't always be right, but it does increase the odds of a particular move and helps me determine when it makes sense to take on more risk.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 on a weekly basis for the past 5 years:

 

[lazycatcat]

If I were fund manager, I will long CF,POT,NFLX, and shart GS and all banks, hehehe. I did tell my friend BAC is so weak last month, but look at at what level now? I felt guilty about my mistake! You and 99% of people would say BAC is dirty cheap at 6, right? But let me ensure, by my trading model, BAC,C,JPM,MS and GS are clearly a 100000% short that this level at this point. My model follows TREND! If trend gets changed one day, I think it will, my trading model will tell me to go back to long.

Hey, finding a trading model works for you is the most important thing. As for me, following the trend, control my positioning size (T1,T2,T3 on different price level), and setup tight stop lose is my model, and it seems work for me.

Again, thanks for being here.

真得很高兴能看到您的帖子。有胜于无啊。

That is quite flattering !

Pauson is an M&A arbitrager and so he has deep roots.

Can you maintain discussion in one thread ?

You are right on FAZ, which is settled daily and is not good for long-term hedging. It is more like trading for some comfort money.

BAC at lower price may still be attractive but I am only focused on wfc and usb.

It would be more interesting to focus on company events and look for potential option mis-pricing.

Be careful of end-year reversal, although it is hard to know when.

The call premium of FAZ is just too high while out of money put too low. FAZ is probably good for tail risk betting. Imagine if overall market rises by 30%, it will fall 90% ...