十月二十日计划

[nepean_01]

很简单，做空! 现在要看1188附近能不能撑住。很关键!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

我明天开盘就买回WYNN和LVS的空头。银行的空头也会见好就收!!!!!!!

NFLX做多的意味浓厚! 见底的可能性大增!

US markets started turning down after investors started
reviewing news events and possibly after a reality check
of how likely the upcoming comprehensive plan
scheduled to be announced this Sunday is going to be
effective to contain the Greece contagion problem.
Late in the day Wednesday, headlines showed the
European Union talks stalled over bailout fund as quoted
by French minister Sarkozy. This is ahead of the EU
summit this weekend.
We are likely going to see more selling and volatility the
next few days and probably into next week as well and
this will help our short positions mature more profitably.
My whole assumption this past week has been that the
market is a little too optimistic on the Europe bailout
hopes and that reality will eventually come back into
investors’ minds causing selling in stock prices—and
that’s exactly what has started the last few days.
This is a critical time for the market to see if and how
much selling does return and how that affects our short
swing trade positions. My suggestion is to continue
holding short positions.
Repeat from last report: I still believe the indexes are setting up for
a pullback but it takes awhile for market to break down, especially
after a two week bull run like the one we just had. It is very typical
to see this push and pull type reaction with high volatility at the ends of these runs.
A surprising piece of economic news was a strong residential construction number of a 15% surge in housing starts in
September but after more indepth analysis, it could have been a catchup number from previous month. The market
discounted that good news within a few hours of the market open.
Consumer prices gained (CPI) but was no surprise after yesterday’s PPI number. We are getting some mixed earnings
numbers and any major earnings disappointments will cause more selling as the market sentiment returns back to
nervousness the last few days.

 

[lazycatcat]

See how market reacts no-agreement in Europe tomorrow...

 

[nepean_01]

Can you please provide detail of this news?

如果没有好消息大盘大概要低开了。

 

[nepean_01]

I sold most of long and covered most short. But took home FAZ and POT. This is my style of hedge. 呵呵。不会暴富但安全。

 

[nepean_01]

European Leaders Postpone Decision on Bailout Plan

Europe's efforts to solve its escalating debt crisis plunged into disarray Thursday after Germany and France could not bridge their differences in time for a summit Sunday, forcing them to call a second meeting.

Demonstrators shout slogans during a protest against plans for new austerity measures on October 19, 2011 in Athens, Greece.
Sunday's summit was supposed to deliver a comprehensive plan to finally get a grip on the currency union's debt troubles by detailing new financing for debt-ridden Greece, a plan to make Europe's banks fit to sustain worsening market turbulence and a scheme to make the euro-zone bailout fund more powerful.

The offices of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced they needed more time after it became clear that the currency union's two biggest countries could not agree on the main points of the plan.

Both governments said that all elements of the euro zone's crisis strategy would be discussed on Sunday, "so it can be definitively adopted by the Heads of State and Government at a second meeting Wednesday at the latest."

It also said that the two leaders would meet Saturday evening ahead of the summit in Brussels in the hope of making progress.

"The chancellor is confident that in this way, good, coordinated measures for the stability of the euro zone can be achieved," Merkel's spokesman, Steffan Seibert, told journalists in Berlin.

The announcement of a second summit is likely to increase concern over the euro zone's ability to stick together and stabilize the common currency. Sunday's summit had already been delayed from earlier in the week to give the leaders more time to agree on the key issues.


RELATED LINKS
Pisani: The EU Summit Roadmap'We Still Do Not Have a Euro Crisis': EconomistInvestors Can't Trust Anything From EuropeEU Bailout Fund Can Buy Sovereign DebtSarkozy in Last-Minute EFSF Talks
"The parochialism and procrastination that got us into this mess continues," said Sony Kapoor, managing director of economic think-tank Re-Define. "Unless EU leaders pull a rabbit out of their hat now, this will worsen the already deep politico-economic crisis that Europe is facing."

European officials said ahead of the announcement that the euro zone remained deeply divided on important parts of its strategy on debt-ridden Greece, banks and its bailout fund.

Germany and several other rich countries have been pushing for banks and other private investors to take steeper losses on their Greek bondholdings, before the euro zone can sign off on a second multibillion-euro rescue package for the struggling country.

France and the European Central Bank have so far opposed forcing banks to write off more Greek debt, fearing that would destabilize the banking sector and worsen market turmoil.

But Greece's international debt inspectors warned earlier in the day that even under a rescue package tentatively agreed upon in July, the country's debts were not sustainable.

In their statements Thurday, Merkel and Sarkozy said that, based on the inspectors' report, Greece should immediately start negotiations with the private sector to reach a deal "that would improve this debt sustainability."

The euro zone is also divided on how to give its bailout fund more firing power, with the French wanting the ECB to help out, which Germany opposes.

A third point of contention is how to fund expensive capital injections into weak banks that might take losses on Greek debt and have already taken a hit from falling prices of other government bonds. France and several other countries are worried that bailing out their banks could hurt their credit rating and want the bailout fund to support lenders directly, rather than lending first to governments.

Ahead of the announcement, one European official, who was speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested that the need for more time may also have been caused by disagreement between Merkel's government and the German parliament, which felt decisions affecting taxpayer money were being taken over its head.



Seibert appeared to support that assessment, saying further changes to Europe's bailout fund would require the agreement of the Bundestag, the German parliament.

"A two-step summit allows for this to take place," Seibert said.

Merkel's address to parliament scheduled for Friday was canceled, and Seibert said it would take place next week.

Governments in rich and poor countries are finding it increasingly difficult to get their parliaments to support the common rescue efforts.

Greek lawmakers late Thursday barely passed a deeply resented austerity bill needed to get the next batch of rescue money and avoid a disastrous default next month.

But the vote further diminished the ruling Socialists' grip on parliament and triggered violent protests on the streets of Athens, leaving one person dead and dozens injured.

Tear gas choked the air in Athens' central Syntagma Square, as riot police tried to separate more than 50,000 peaceful protesters from smaller groups determined to wreak havoc with firebombs and stones. The scene degenerated into running battles between groups of protesters beating each other and between helmeted, heavily armed police and masked rioters.

One central Athens hospital said it had treated 74 people injured in the clashes. Some of the injured were covered in blood from head wounds.

 

[lazycatcat]

I sold most of long and covered most short. But took home FAZ and POT. This is my style of hedge. 呵呵。不会暴富但安全。

Good idea !

 

[lazycatcat]

Any updates ?

 

[cfcplayer]

Shorts are in trouble for several days.

 

[nepean_01]

US stocks continued to move up on Monday in
anticipation that the European plan to contain the debt
problem with Greece and other countries. Investors are
looking beyond the immediate problem and clear
uptrends are developing on market indexes.
The sentiment is shifting toward a bullishness to such an
extent that the market is likely to overlook any
undesirable details of the plan to be announced after
Wednesday’s European union Summit. We are also
getting some bullish influence from this earnings season
with over 70% of stocks reporting better than expected
earnings.
The market sentiment has clearly shifted from fear to
optimism even without any regard to the common sense
that there wouldn’t be enough money to bail out all the 4
countries lining up to fail.
The market indexes have hit new highs since early
August and are building on the rebound from the
October 4th lows. The uptrending chart pattern looks like
it will hold for now until the next set of news changes
this pattern at some point but it could continue for weeks
of trending upward.
Your short positions should have been stopped out anywhere from Friday to Monday and we suggested 4 long
position ideas on the last report.

The Dow30 was up 0.89%, Nasdaq Composite was up 2.35%, the S&P 500 was up 1.29%, and the Russell 2000 was up
3.31%. The CBOE Volatility Index which is a gauge used to measure fear in the market place was down 6.5%.

In earnings news, CAT, Caterpillar announced a 44% increase in earnings and closed up 5% Monday. KMB, KimberlyClark was down 4.5% after reporting earnings that were below expectations.

NFLX, Netflix reported weak earnings during after market hours Monday and shares dropped over 20% during after-market
trading.

 

[nepean_01]

Short is in big trouble!

I am long POT,CF,SODA,LULU,GMCR (in and out several times) and GS (close above 50 MA, first time for a while).

I built up some Chinese stocks as swing trade, such as BIDU,SINA,YOKU,DANG,QIHU. All of them wake up today.

Sold all Chinese solar stocks: TSL and LDK and JASO.

Overall, market might see selling pressure starting Thursday! I will keep all in cash before closing bell on Wednesday. Wait and see how market react to the EURO's meeting result. My best guess is that the bullishness might be able carry to Thursday. A pull back might trigger at that time. But I guess we have seen the low for 2011!

Good luck. Trading was so intensive to me. HEHE.:blowzy: