十月二十八日盘后,十月三十一日瞎猜计划

nepean_01

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US stocks had a slight pullback on Friday after the large
gain in stock prices on Thursday. Fridays trading action
does not mean anything as far as direction or trend and
markets usually have a slight pullback after such big
gains as we saw on Thursday. The fact that the indexes
had small pullbacks on Friday should be considered a
bullish sign. Overall, as a general trend, we are still
expecting an uptrend to continue for longer periods of
time and may continue through 2011.
The next area of worry for the US markets is the
November 23
rd
deadline on the “super committee” of
Republicans and democrats to come up with a plan that
solves our own deficit reduction program. Remember
the government shutdown the US almost had? Expect
more heated bickering and extended deadlines and this
could derail the current bull run we are having now.
Also remember the US faces a second downgrade by
Standard & Poors rating organization (S&P) if we don’t
have a credible debt reduction plan in place and signed
into law. This is another factor that could cause selling
in US stocks.
The October 4
th
bottom was the most recent bottom in
stocks and the 3 week bull run we have had since is the
longest we have had for quite some time and it is likely
we return back to shorter term holding times in swing
trades long or short.
The Dow30, Nasdaq Composite, and the S&P 500 all had
virtually no change. The Russell 2000 was down 0.58% and
the CBOE Volatility Index which is a gauge used to measure
fear in the market place was down 3.6%
In economic news, Personal Income was up 0.1% in September which was less than expected. Consumer Spending was
up by 0.6% which was in line with expectations. Also the Michigan Sentiment came in much higher than anticipated at 60.9
for October.
In earnings news, MRK, Merck was up 2.3% Friday after reporting earnings that beat expectations. CVX, Chevron also had
better than expected earnings but share closed with virtually no change.
CVC, Cablevision Systems was down 11.5% Friday after announcing weak earnings that included a sharp drop in third
quarter income and a loss of cable television subscribers.
 
GLW and SU

GLW is one of the companies mentioned in Fisher's book on common stocks and uncommon profits.

When TV was the rage, an analyst found out none of TV manufacturers had lasting earning power yet GLW was uniquely positioned and recommended it. The result was fascinating.

GLW was back in LCD again. Almost all its profit is now from LCD business and a bit more than half is from a 50% owned JV with Samsung.

Its balance sheet is rather clean with $6B in cash (50% held in subsidiaries outside US) and with about $2.5B debt. Its 2011 capex is rather large at around $2.5 B.

Profit is probably around $3 B in 2011. Net market cap at $20 B.

It is a bit difficult to figure out if GLW is a worth buy at this point without better understanding of LCD business.

Given its large capex and leadership in LCD, plus its long history of dominance in glass related business, it is probably worth considering if one has better understanding of LCD business and also assuming current earning power is sustainable...

LCD is the hot spot but one needs to have some knowledge in this area...
 
SU

After visiting oil sands one or two years ago, Buffett said oil sands companies would make a lot of money if long-term oil price is at $120 per barrel.

SU is an oil sand play with future value (0% discounted) at last-year's oil price at over $100 B (versus currently market cap of $65 B) - be cautious of this number since it is just an estimate with 0% discount.

Per barrel oil sand current expense is $40. Nearly all of SU's cash flow is spent on capital expenditure. This is the same as a few years ago.

In the oil sector, oil sands probably are worth looking into. Shale oil is probably not a replacement (based on my reading of Wiki pages and so don't take this too seriously).

It is difficult to say how SU is valued but there might be strategic value in oil sands. The interesting trends I have been following are:

1. Oil is definitely getting less and less available. Can the electric vehicle reduce oil consumption ?
2. Electric vehicle probably depends on cheap electricity from natural gas generator.
3. Large shale natural gas probably will depress NG in US and Canada.
4. However, pipeline business is probably booming with this scenario. Recent purchase of El Paso by Kinder Morgan is probably the proof. By the way, if one doesn't know Kinder Morgan, go read Enron's book. This guy is one of the smartest person in energy business.

I think it is worthwhile to spend time on oil sand companies etc to prepare for a gradual growth economy.

If oil price keeps in current level and slow trends up, oil sands are surely profitable - given Buffett's evaluation.

Do you have a list of all oil companies in Canada and US by using your subscription ?
 
猫:
我真得很喜欢您的DD。有点敬佩的味道。呵呵。
我没耐心做DD,有不到知道怎么做DD。真的谢谢。
技术分析可以较好结合资金留向,捕捉机构进出场的情况,使我们能把握好进出场
的点位,控制风险。:p
 
By the way, CEO of Fairfax Financials thought the world would enter a deflationary stage in next decade or two. He bought bettings against CPI with this belief.

Note that he also bought index insurance from Buffett back in 2007.

Investment view from both probably should be taken seriously.

My personal take is that unless a resource is dwindling in supply, better be cautious ... A hedged way for any large directional bet is probably worth the cost ...
 
猫:
我真得很喜欢您的DD。有点敬佩的味道。呵呵。
我没耐心做DD,有不到知道怎么做DD。真的谢谢。
技术分析可以较好结合资金留向,捕捉机构进出场的情况,使我们能把握好进出场
的点位,控制风险。:p

Technical speculation is fine and probably can be aided by some fundamental analysis. This is useful so that one knows where is the bottom line in either direction.

My issue with technical trading is first the time in that you almost have to be full time. The second is what to do if a string of loss occurs - like 10 or 15 consecutive days of loss. Maybe you can share some ideas...

A more interesting theoretical question is if any profits earned from technical speculation is enough to cover potential risk. In other words, say a stock rises 20% over a month. By doing daily trade, what is the likelihood of gaining that 20% or even more ? If return is consistently less than 20%, this probably indicates taking more risks but without ample return...
 
Very simple for GLW. Overall, GLW is bullish! GLW would be fine to hold as long as 15 holds. I would stop out once it breaks 15! I think 15 is a very strong support. Worth buy at $15 now.:(

FA -- What to buy or sell!!!!!!!
TA-- When buy or sell!!!!!!!!!!!

Very simple to me. No conflict at all.:blowzy:
 
在經歷了昨天的大漲之後,週五美股窄幅整理,對於歐洲援助計劃的質疑聲主導了市場,中國否認將援助歐洲為市場的做多熱情破了一盆冷水。全週美股大幅上漲。截至收盤,道瓊斯指數+22.56點,收於12231.11點, 標準普爾+0.49點,收於1285.08點,納斯達克指-1.48點,收於2737.15點。

公司新聞:
Globe and Mail報道稱,IMAX(IMAX)首席執行官Richard Gelfond和來自中國的分析師談了三季度業績並表示,由於中國的電影市場快速發展,IMAX才如此關註中國市場。

All Things Digital援引匿名人士消息報道,雅虎(YHOO)下周三將推出Livestand,這是一款用於平板電腦的新聞與社區內容閱讀器軟件,谷歌(GOOG)將在下周後稍後時間推出類似產品,這兩款產品將與AOL(AOL) Flipboard相競爭。

在美太陽能創業公司Solyndra經營失敗後,白宮要求對能源部的貸款情況進行獨立審核,以保證Solyndra破產流程順利進行,美國能源部著手檢查First Solar(FSLR)所有的貸款情況。

Green Dot Corporation(GDOT)宣布,該公司將和GE Capital Retail Bank(GE)和沃爾瑪(WMT)一起,擴大在全國沃爾瑪超市以及在walmartmoneycard.com網站上銷售的沃爾瑪預付費卡的種類。新產品將是整個產品線重塑品牌過程的一部分,而這項計劃將在四季度正是在全國範圍展開。

據All Things D報道,諾基亞(NOK)的首席執行官在一次采訪中暗示其將推出微軟(MSFT)Windows系統的Lumia系列手機,而現在將可能利用其生產線制造Windows8平板電腦。

紐約時報援引數位匿名人士的消息稱,雅虎(YHOO)正急於將公司出售,而並不急於聘用新的CEO。雖然這家麻煩不斷的互聯網企業正與頂級獵頭公司海德思哲(HSII)進行合作以尋找一位新CEO,但工作進展緩慢。

ZDNet報道,惠普(HPQ)已經宣布將留住其電腦業務部門,原因可能是惠普將要推出微軟(MSFT)Windows 8版本的平板電腦。

華爾街日報報道,Facebook計劃在瑞典的北邊城市Lulea建造公司新的服務器基地,這是第一次在美國本土外構建的基礎設施,用於改善提供給歐洲用戶的服務性能。

數據方面:9月個人收入月環比+0.1% 9月個人支出月環比+0.6% 三季度雇傭成本同比+2.0%,前值為+2.2%。 三季度雇傭成本季環比+0.3%,預期為+0.6%,前值為+0.7%。 10月密歇根大學消費者信心指數60.9,預期為58.0,前值為57.5。

大盤近期走勢分析:
SPX指數是窄幅整理走勢,支撐1260,阻力1292.

標普日綫圖:
 

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市场是无情的,UBS停损了1000口。巨亏。
 

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我个人的看法

我个人的看法: 技术上看,短线会小幅回调,但中线看多无疑!:blink:

从基本面看,我觉得大盘的上涨是毫无理由的疯涨。:crying:

But i will not fight for this non-sense bullish movement!!!!!!!!!!!!:)

I will still do some little quick cute short!!!!!!!!!!!!:cool:
 
GLW is one of the companies mentioned in Fisher's book on common stocks and uncommon profits.

When TV was the rage, an analyst found out none of TV manufacturers had lasting earning power yet GLW was uniquely positioned and recommended it. The result was fascinating.

GLW was back in LCD again. Almost all its profit is now from LCD business and a bit more than half is from a 50% owned JV with Samsung.

Its balance sheet is rather clean with $6B in cash (50% held in subsidiaries outside US) and with about $2.5B debt. Its 2011 capex is rather large at around $2.5 B.

Profit is probably around $3 B in 2011. Net market cap at $20 B.

It is a bit difficult to figure out if GLW is a worth buy at this point without better understanding of LCD business.

Given its large capex and leadership in LCD, plus its long history of dominance in glass related business, it is probably worth considering if one has better understanding of LCD business and also assuming current earning power is sustainable...

LCD is the hot spot but one needs to have some knowledge in this area...

wow, GLW is amazing!

Watch this one, Cat!

http://www.corninggorillaglass.com/videos?bctid=777279773001

I know you will love it!

Wow plus a lot of WOW!

But do not buy stocks now, wait for the reasonable pullback.
 
如果欧洲下跌,美股应该要回调了。我们可等回调再买POT, NFLX,DANG,STP,TSL,FSLR,LDK,BTU,ANR,GS,BAC,JPM。:eek:
 
AMZN was amazing on Friday.

It was so bullish on Friday, kind of reversal to me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It was a totally broken chart before the late afternoon on Friday. I do think AMZN will see 52 new high anytime this year. I expect many hedge funds will switch from AAPL to AMZN since AAPL lost their only ONE!:blowzy:
 
本周,我预期前半周可能会小幅回调,但最后两天可能还会暴涨!!!!!!
 
Fundamentals of GLW probably don't matter for short-term trading.

If you need a market consensus, looking at at-money call or put option probably can provide some clue. GLW's expected volatility is not very high.

I personally prefer SU, the oil sand story. With 6 B barrels of proven reserve and 17 B barrels of contingent reserve, SU has a lot to grow or a lot to lose all depending on one factor - oil price !

So, it might be easier for SU .... if one believes in peak oil theory, lack of replacement in near future, overall growth in wealth, etc ...
 
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