十一月十四日盘后，十一月十五日瞎猜计划
- 主题发起人 nepean_01
- 开始时间
Cat,
i have no mood posting anything tonight.
I just post the following:
我这个大空头都不敢空PCLN，我这么能说您够胆。我决没有这样的熊胆包天!!!!!
如果您这么空整个花街最大的一只大牛股，只能说明您大约对做空最基本的概念还
没学会。我一般不这样说别人。把话说重实在是一片好心!
By the way, future is down a lot right now.
Overall, market is strong, a lot of stocks are very very crazy, such as the stocks I am playing: PEIX,CLNE,SODA,CRM,HW,TZOO. But i do think there is possible some bad news will come from 欧猪.
小心为上! 谨慎做多强势股。关盘前适当保持小仓!
i have no mood posting anything tonight.
I just post the following:
我这个大空头都不敢空PCLN，我这么能说您够胆。我决没有这样的熊胆包天!!!!!
如果您这么空整个花街最大的一只大牛股，只能说明您大约对做空最基本的概念还
没学会。我一般不这样说别人。把话说重实在是一片好心!
By the way, future is down a lot right now.
Overall, market is strong, a lot of stocks are very very crazy, such as the stocks I am playing: PEIX,CLNE,SODA,CRM,HW,TZOO. But i do think there is possible some bad news will come from 欧猪.
小心为上! 谨慎做多强势股。关盘前适当保持小仓!
lazycatcat
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Thanks for sharing. It is true that USD has been above parity for CND for sometime.
It is great that you familiar with these companies. We probably can discuss further on the business side.
The market is still directionless ... If Greece defaults, that is actually good news ...
It is great that you familiar with these companies. We probably can discuss further on the business side.
The market is still directionless ... If Greece defaults, that is actually good news ...
lazycatcat
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Interesting companies. I will take a look at their financials ...
lazycatcat
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Based on my personal understanding, it is pretty difficult to make a brand out of coffee. Therefore, coffee business is essentially distribution business. I could be wrong but this is what I think.
GMCR's net margin is never very high. You can compare its margin with that of HANS for years in 90's.
It doesn't mean coffee stocks are not good but it is a bit difficult to swallow their high valuations...
lazycatcat
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It seems volatility is coming back again ...
Bank Warnings Trigger Late Sell-Off
Written by Scott Redler
November 16, 2011 04:54pm
US markets dropped sharply in the final hour of trading Wednesday, triggered by warnings about US bank exposure to the growing European crisis. The S&P fell 1.66%. Fitch warned that further contagion could pose serious risks and the Eurozone crisis must be resolved swiftly and orderly. The wedge pattern that has been building now looks set to resolve to the downside.
I got stopped out of my momentum longs when we broke around $125.50 SPY. This is a very tough and frustrating tape to trade. I leave to speak for Schwab at the Las Vegas trader's expo, so I won't be as active over the next couple of days. I will hold SPY calls, but I won’t be by my computer to trade positions.
One of my rules is to cut risk when I’m not in full control of keyboard. I’m long SCO (inverse oil ETF) (I believe we can see a pull-back after a massive run) and long small SPY October calls. I am trying to give them room, but the market does feel like it will now resolve the wedge to the downside.
Important S&P macro support is at 1232-1238, then 1225. The macro line in sand is the 50day moving average at 1205ish, so give it the zone 1190-1205.
Choose your time frame according to your risk tolerance. The market is thin because a lot of big players, which aren't as nimble, are choosing to stand on the sidelines. I trade momentum and the trend, which is hard to maintain right now. When I don’t feel like I have a firm handle on the trend I actively maneuver. The uptrend that started Oct 4 is now in question, and I will wait for more clarity before getting aggressive.
Long-term investors should generally stay the course, but if you were swing trading this 7 week move up that went as high as 1292, make sure you are locking in some of those gains.
Banks are a major problem, exacerbated by Moody's downgrade of German banks just before the close. Goldman Sachs (GS) broke that $98 level that we’ve been watching closely. I would not be surprised if France got a downgrade soon, even before the end of the week.
*DISCLOSURES: Scott Redler is long SCO and SPY calls. He traded SPY OIH APA SNDK AAPL GOOG MGM REDF BIDU GLD SLB BIDU but is now flat those positions.
Written by Scott Redler
November 16, 2011 04:54pm
US markets dropped sharply in the final hour of trading Wednesday, triggered by warnings about US bank exposure to the growing European crisis. The S&P fell 1.66%. Fitch warned that further contagion could pose serious risks and the Eurozone crisis must be resolved swiftly and orderly. The wedge pattern that has been building now looks set to resolve to the downside.
I got stopped out of my momentum longs when we broke around $125.50 SPY. This is a very tough and frustrating tape to trade. I leave to speak for Schwab at the Las Vegas trader's expo, so I won't be as active over the next couple of days. I will hold SPY calls, but I won’t be by my computer to trade positions.
One of my rules is to cut risk when I’m not in full control of keyboard. I’m long SCO (inverse oil ETF) (I believe we can see a pull-back after a massive run) and long small SPY October calls. I am trying to give them room, but the market does feel like it will now resolve the wedge to the downside.
Important S&P macro support is at 1232-1238, then 1225. The macro line in sand is the 50day moving average at 1205ish, so give it the zone 1190-1205.
Choose your time frame according to your risk tolerance. The market is thin because a lot of big players, which aren't as nimble, are choosing to stand on the sidelines. I trade momentum and the trend, which is hard to maintain right now. When I don’t feel like I have a firm handle on the trend I actively maneuver. The uptrend that started Oct 4 is now in question, and I will wait for more clarity before getting aggressive.
Long-term investors should generally stay the course, but if you were swing trading this 7 week move up that went as high as 1292, make sure you are locking in some of those gains.
Banks are a major problem, exacerbated by Moody's downgrade of German banks just before the close. Goldman Sachs (GS) broke that $98 level that we’ve been watching closely. I would not be surprised if France got a downgrade soon, even before the end of the week.
*DISCLOSURES: Scott Redler is long SCO and SPY calls. He traded SPY OIH APA SNDK AAPL GOOG MGM REDF BIDU GLD SLB BIDU but is now flat those positions.
週三盤後分析 Remove
週三美股衝高回落，盤前受到歐洲方面憂慮影響大幅低開，盤中美股在樂觀情緒的帶動之下一度反彈收復失地，但是尾盤惠譽有關歐洲債務危機將波及美國銀行業和IMF歐洲事務董事離職的消息帶來了極大的恐慌情緒，股指遭受重挫，收於盤中最低點附近。黃金走低，石油走強。截至收盤，道瓊斯指數-190.57點，收於11905.59點， 標準普爾-20.9點，收於1236.91點，納斯達克指-46.59點，收於2639.61點。
公司新聞：
Amgen(AMGN)宣布並公開其第三階段實驗性成果，該實驗為評估XGEVA註射型藥物在阻止或延遲患有轉移的去雄激素抵抗型前列腺癌男性轉移性骨癌癥狀發生的效果。
Rambus在起訴鎂光和海力士壟斷的官司中敗訴，股價暴跌。
花旗(C)計劃將從其證券和銀行部門裁員900名員工，大約為該部門全球員工總數的5%。該事件相關人士表示近期在證券以及債券市場出現的風暴已經侵蝕了收入。該項裁員計劃為花旗降低成本大規模計劃的一部分，花旗總共計劃將裁員3000多名員工。
谷歌(GOOG)今天發布了一款名為Verbatim的全新字符查找功能，並預計此更為簡便的逐字搜索功能將會大大提升用戶的搜索體驗。
紐約郵報消息稱，時代華納(TWX)和亞馬遜(AMZN)已經達成了一項協議，將允許通過數字訂閱時代華納旗下的五本雜誌。根據這項協議，只要用戶訂閱了紙質版本的雜誌就能通過Kindle Fire平板電腦獲得數字板的雜誌，蘋果(AAPL)也和時代華納達成了類似的協議，通過IPAD同樣能獲得數字雜誌。
博通(BRCM)宣布，其BCM47511解決方案已用於三星最新款的智能手機GALAXY Note的坐標定位上。使用博通的BCM47511導航芯片，GALAXY Note可以收集全球四個導航衛星的信號，加快全球定位的速度和可靠性。
iGATE(IGTE)對外宣布，有意通過子公司泛亞iGATE解決方案和iGATE全球解決方案開始一項程序，該程序可能導致其印度子公司Patni Computer Systems退市。
數據方面：10月NAHB住宅市場指數20，預期為18，前值為16。 10月工業產值月環比+0.7%，預期為+0.4%，前值從+0.3%修正至-0.4%。 10月設備利用率77.8%，預期為77.6%，前值從77.4%修正至77.3%。 10月核心CPI環比+0.1%，預期為+0.1%。 10月CPI環比-0.1%，預期為0.0%。 10月CPI同比+3.5%，核心CPI同比+2.1%。
大盤近期走勢分析：
SPX衝高回落，逼近支撐1236點！！！
標普日綫圖：
週三美股衝高回落，盤前受到歐洲方面憂慮影響大幅低開，盤中美股在樂觀情緒的帶動之下一度反彈收復失地，但是尾盤惠譽有關歐洲債務危機將波及美國銀行業和IMF歐洲事務董事離職的消息帶來了極大的恐慌情緒，股指遭受重挫，收於盤中最低點附近。黃金走低，石油走強。截至收盤，道瓊斯指數-190.57點，收於11905.59點， 標準普爾-20.9點，收於1236.91點，納斯達克指-46.59點，收於2639.61點。
公司新聞：
Amgen(AMGN)宣布並公開其第三階段實驗性成果，該實驗為評估XGEVA註射型藥物在阻止或延遲患有轉移的去雄激素抵抗型前列腺癌男性轉移性骨癌癥狀發生的效果。
Rambus在起訴鎂光和海力士壟斷的官司中敗訴，股價暴跌。
花旗(C)計劃將從其證券和銀行部門裁員900名員工，大約為該部門全球員工總數的5%。該事件相關人士表示近期在證券以及債券市場出現的風暴已經侵蝕了收入。該項裁員計劃為花旗降低成本大規模計劃的一部分，花旗總共計劃將裁員3000多名員工。
谷歌(GOOG)今天發布了一款名為Verbatim的全新字符查找功能，並預計此更為簡便的逐字搜索功能將會大大提升用戶的搜索體驗。
紐約郵報消息稱，時代華納(TWX)和亞馬遜(AMZN)已經達成了一項協議，將允許通過數字訂閱時代華納旗下的五本雜誌。根據這項協議，只要用戶訂閱了紙質版本的雜誌就能通過Kindle Fire平板電腦獲得數字板的雜誌，蘋果(AAPL)也和時代華納達成了類似的協議，通過IPAD同樣能獲得數字雜誌。
博通(BRCM)宣布，其BCM47511解決方案已用於三星最新款的智能手機GALAXY Note的坐標定位上。使用博通的BCM47511導航芯片，GALAXY Note可以收集全球四個導航衛星的信號，加快全球定位的速度和可靠性。
iGATE(IGTE)對外宣布，有意通過子公司泛亞iGATE解決方案和iGATE全球解決方案開始一項程序，該程序可能導致其印度子公司Patni Computer Systems退市。
數據方面：10月NAHB住宅市場指數20，預期為18，前值為16。 10月工業產值月環比+0.7%，預期為+0.4%，前值從+0.3%修正至-0.4%。 10月設備利用率77.8%，預期為77.6%，前值從77.4%修正至77.3%。 10月核心CPI環比+0.1%，預期為+0.1%。 10月CPI環比-0.1%，預期為0.0%。 10月CPI同比+3.5%，核心CPI同比+2.1%。
大盤近期走勢分析：
SPX衝高回落，逼近支撐1236點！！！
標普日綫圖：
附件
US stocks moved lower after lesser known rating
organization, Fitch Ratings, issued a report on the
exposure that USA banks have to the European crisis.
Although the term "manageable" was used, other notes
were dependent on if "....the euro zone debt crisis is
resolved in a timely and orderly manner the broad credit
outlook for the US banking industry could worsen."
That’s all it took for the market to end toward the lowest
part of the day and this starts to condition the market to
watch how timely and orderly Europe creates a solution.
Since this process involves many countries, leaders and
politicians, it is more likely that more nervousness and
fear can creep into the market.
Other fear factors are the rising bond yields in the
Spanish bonds, indicating the selling of the bonds
themselves the same as we have seen in Greece and
Italy. Also be aware that deadlines in the USA for a
formally structured budget is coming this month and is
likely to cause nervousness.
This prolonged period of stress for the market starting in
July with the inability of US Congressional and Senate
leaders to agree on a budget and into the European debt
crisis is not inspiring investors to fully invest into the
financial markets and this usually has a longer term
effect of delaying investing in the financial markets. This
is likely to carry into 2012 but we still will consistently
profit by staying into shorter term holding times while
the “buy and hold” strategy will continue to suffer until
longer term trends are able to be established.
organization, Fitch Ratings, issued a report on the
exposure that USA banks have to the European crisis.
Although the term "manageable" was used, other notes
were dependent on if "....the euro zone debt crisis is
resolved in a timely and orderly manner the broad credit
outlook for the US banking industry could worsen."
That’s all it took for the market to end toward the lowest
part of the day and this starts to condition the market to
watch how timely and orderly Europe creates a solution.
Since this process involves many countries, leaders and
politicians, it is more likely that more nervousness and
fear can creep into the market.
Other fear factors are the rising bond yields in the
Spanish bonds, indicating the selling of the bonds
themselves the same as we have seen in Greece and
Italy. Also be aware that deadlines in the USA for a
formally structured budget is coming this month and is
likely to cause nervousness.
This prolonged period of stress for the market starting in
July with the inability of US Congressional and Senate
leaders to agree on a budget and into the European debt
crisis is not inspiring investors to fully invest into the
financial markets and this usually has a longer term
effect of delaying investing in the financial markets. This
is likely to carry into 2012 but we still will consistently
profit by staying into shorter term holding times while
the “buy and hold” strategy will continue to suffer until
longer term trends are able to be established.
