抛玉引砖：房价跌还是不跌？

[good_day12]

这个问题对于国人来说，无论你现在有房无房，都是一个让人不得不关心的问题。正可谓 to be, not to be. It a question.

对这个问题，我们当然可从市场，人气，涨幅，泡沫，就业，通胀，贪官人口，经济大势，等等方面去分析。可是林林总总老是理不出个头绪来。纵观北美20年来的房价动态，似乎这个房价走向总是和人们的预测反着来。有时想想，我要是20年前就把那穆尼丝Bay的水边房买下来该有多好，这个季节早他NND去加勒比了，还能在CFC上发这种垃圾贴？可惜这只是个虚拟语态。难道真是因为Fucking Murphy's law?

一路看下来，越来越搞不清房价到底和什么最相关。今天突然一闪念，也许房价和什么都不相关，只和拉着房价的链条相关。只要链条不断，泡沫再大也没事。什么？废话？先别急，咱们慢慢来分析。

先做一个假设：假定所有的链条都不断，房价会怎样？
结论很简单，肯定涨。为什么？恐怕不一定人人都回答的出来。
因为主要有5点：
1，人口基数在增长。2，通货在膨胀。3，工资在增加。4，经济总量在增加。5，房主们为房子所付出的地税及维护费用的累计数在增加。其实这5点也是5根拉高房价的链条。

这个没疑问吧？好，现在反向假定一下：某些链条断了会如何？那情况就极为复杂了。大师们的水平恰恰体现在这后一个假定的分析上。这里我先瞎分析一下。

首先房主们的资金链断了没有？还能不能供起房贷？有没有大量失业？银行有没有大幅提高利率？这条链在渥太华看来还没断。
再看银行的资金链。坏账多不多？高风险投资比例大不大？房主破产的多不多？银行经营情况如何？这条链在加拿大好像也还行。
再看建筑商的资金链牢固不牢固，周转灵不灵。这个最难说，因咱手里没数据，只好乱猜。渥太华来看，大建筑商应该还行。如minto，虽然下半年卖不动了，可新房价还在微涨。估计在这里死撑着。小公司就不太妙，如Mattamy，现在在Maple Grove 的新房已经降了1万左右。会不会再降？得看他那个链条结不结实。如果他只是想快速回笼资金那也就罢了，要说是在崩盘前的逃跑，应该不会。但无论如何，市场低迷，房价停顿是事实。这可能暗示着某些链条可能有问题，需要缓解一下。假以时日，等5根拉高房价的链条绷紧到一定程度的时候，再涨一点也未必不可能。

您要是问我，那大概是什么时候？嘿嘿，对不起，我可不会为我的预测加入任何时间限制。因为大家都知道，不给出时间的预测是最聪明的预测。比如说共产主义一定要实现，但他就是不告诉你什么时候能实现。否则一给出时间，预言马上就破产。

 

[hunksalim]

谁的工资涨了？

 

[uglyducking]

mattamy 好像是gta很大的builder啊

 

[uglyducking]

谁的工资涨了？

我的





























快十年没涨了:flaming::flaming:

 

[sip]

买了房子的都说房子要涨，没买房子的都说房价要掉。
其实，按经济发展规律，借钱的都比存钱的最后有钱。

 

[good_day12]

mattamy 好像是gta很大的builder啊

所以说这也是让我有点担心的地方。没有他们内部的经营信息，没法判断。

 

[fortget_it]

Mattamy 是最大的NEW HOME BUILDER IN CANADA.

 

[good_day12]

Mattamy 是最大的NEW HOME BUILDER IN CANADA.

城市和城市的差别太大。只能从咱这个城市来看涨跌。关于Mattamy的定位我搞错了且词不达意。主要是看他那些降价的房子好像都是些决定了的lot，觉得可能属于小打小闹的促销。

 

[简单简单]

房市是个由情感控制的不稳定产品，有些时候不能用理性的方法去解释的。

 

[poisson]

不好说，虽然今年后半年成交量比较低，但是鉴于目前的贷款利率是历史最低点，卖家只要不是Desperate，都宁可Hold房子等待明年春季的房市回温也不会急于低价抛售。我相信这也是成交量低迷的原因之一：买家持币观望盼房市走低，卖家持房等待期待市场好转。今年Ottawa房市的停滞和联邦从明年财政年度开始的缩减开支预算有关。等到明年3月份关于未来几年的财政政策出台了，形势会明朗许多。到时候大家担心的联邦裁员策略就明晰了。如果裁员情况好于大家的预测，房市说不好又要反弹上去。 就像2008年房市因为美国信贷，经济危机的恐慌预测低迷了半年，然后发现情况比预计好很多，房市就全面反弹上去了。明年是联邦缩减开支的第一年， 估计联邦不会有大幅度的裁员动作而是依靠温和的自然减员。 所以我觉得至少明年的房价大概会与今年持平，不太可能会大跌。说到底是个消费者信心的问题。

 

[Kay007]

Lower interest rate is a key to drive the real estate maket. Another should be crashed stock market.

 

[xiaoyoyo]

对于买房自住的刚需来说预测来预测去都没啥意义

 

[solitaire]

http://www2.ottawarealestate.org/home/NewsInformation/LatestNewsRelease.aspx

Resale Housing Off to a Typical Start

Ottawa, February 6, 2012 - Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 684 residential properties in January through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® system compared with 677 in January 2011, an increase of one per cent. The five-year average for January sales is 652.

Of those sales, 138 were in the condominium property class, while 546 were in the residential property class. The condominium property class includes any property, regardless of style (i.e. detached, semi-detached, apartment, stacked etc.), which is registered as a condominium, as well as properties which are co-operatives, life leases and timeshares. The residential property class includes all other residential properties.

“The results indicate it’s been a typical month of January for the Ottawa and area resale housing market” said Board President Ansel Clarke. “It is interesting to note that the inventory of properties for sale is considerably higher than a year ago, offering a lot of choice to buyers.”

The average sale price of residential properties, including condominiums, sold in January in the Ottawa area was $349,415, an increase of 5.6 per cent over January 2011. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $253,210, an increase of 6.8 per cent over January 2011. The average sale price of a residential-class property was $373,731, an increase of 5.5 per cent over January 2011. The Board cautions that average sale price information can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The average sale price is calculated based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold.

The MLS® system is a member based service, paid for by the REALTOR® members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. The MLS® mark symbolizes the cooperation among REALTORS® to affect the purchase and sale of real estate through real estate services provided by REALTORS®. MLS® commercial and residential listings are available for viewing on the Board’s internet site at www.OttawaRealEstate.org and on the national websites of The Canadian Real Estate Association at www.REALTOR.ca and www.ICX.ca.