丢掉众议院,川普怂了, 主动要求贸易谈判,威胁再征2600亿关税吓唬不了中国人民

本帖由 向问天2018-09-13 发布。版面名称:渥太华华人论坛

  1. soysauce

    soysauce 初级会员 ID:125942

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    中美两国都在历史的交叉点,加拿大机会抓好了,还能受益,美国川毒不要滲透过来就好,其他的也与我们无关了:D
     
  2. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    我完全不懂经济学。 能解释一下经济学上的双赢或共赢是如何定义的吗?
     
  3. 向问天

    向问天 日月神教光明左使 ID:112302 VIP

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    中共努力搞产业升级,用市场换技术,这个办法WTO没有禁止,这样让中国人民从高污染高能耗的低端制造走出来。你们普世派正好相反,希望中国人永远为美帝在低端打工。 说中共是为了百姓的利益你们出卖百姓的利益是汉奸冤枉你们没有?
     
  4. 向问天

    向问天 日月神教光明左使 ID:112302 VIP

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    看来你很瞧不起中国人民的高端制造,但是美帝特别害怕中国威胁它在高端制造业的地位,所以才发动贸易战。建议你好好体会美帝的意思,别瞎BB,坏了美帝的大事。
     
  5. urus

    urus survivor ID:15572 VIP

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    别。

    中美两个巨兽在角力, 这时候, 谁进去瞎掺乎都会有性命之忧。

    唯一的办法就是等这俩有谁趴下了, 再去跟着另一个混
     
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  6. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    The "Trade War" is Really About the Future of Innovation
    The escalation of tariffs between China and the United States is haunting the financial markets. “Manageable, orchestrated trade skirmishes” is probably the right description. But “trade war” is so much better a headline.

    Either way, what is really going on is not about trade; it is about who will lead global innovation in the 21st century. Think less steel, soybeans, and solar panels, and more electric vehicles, self-driving cars, and artificial intelligence.

    The electoral incentives are clear for the Trump administration to talk up links between wages and jobs and the mushrooming of America’s trade deficit with China over the past 15 years.

    But the administration’s much bigger concern is China’s very real challenge to American global dominance in the innovation economy. Rising power vs. incumbent power normally refers to the growing military competition between China and the U.S. But it also describes rising Sino-American competition over the future of innovation.

    Consider some facts. China has laid down more high-speed rail lines than the rest of the world combined (see the breathtaking new Chongqing-Guiyan line below). Mobile payments in China are 50 times as large as in the U.S. Last year, more electric vehicles were sold in China than in the rest of the world, and more than twice as many industrial robots were in use in China than in the U.S.

    [​IMG]
    Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft are firmly entrenched in the top 10 companies in the world by market capitalization. They were joined a couple of years ago by two Chinese companies—Alibaba and Tencent—that continued to climb up the standings.

    Over the period 2012-2016, Goldman Sachs estimates that total AI investment in the U.S. were about $18 billion, compared with only $2 billion in China—big advantage to America. But by 2020 China intends to invest about $150 billion in AI—looming enormous advantage to China.

    [​IMG]
    There is no doubt that most of the best new underlying technology continues to come out of the U.S. Realistically, it will take China many years, probably decades, to change this.

    But the ability of China to adopt and adapt American technology, and to do so at warp speed and massive scale, is extraordinary. If the definition of innovation is turning ideas into outcomes, China is already an innovation economy.

    This is what the Trump administration is really worried about. Dig just below the surface of “trade war” tweets, and the administration’s focus on China and the future of innovation is apparent.

    The U.S. Trade Representative report on which the new tariffs are based is entitled, “China’s acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation.” Nothing about steel or manufacturing jobs.

    This report then justifies actions against China based on a powerful but controversial provision of Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act, which allows the President to take essentially any actions he sees fit against “acts, policies or practices that are unreasonable or discriminatory and that burden or restrict U.S. Commerce.”

    This raises three big questions:

    1. Is China behaving “unreasonably” to restrict U.S. commerce with respect to the innovation economy?

    There is no doubt that the Chinese government has an active “industrial policy” to transform its economy from a low cost assembler and manufacturer into a global leader in the cutting edge industries of the 21st century. This is the core of Xi Jinping’s ambition for China.

    In the past, the U.S. government has complained that government investment creates “unfair competition” in global markets—for example, the muscle European governments have used to help Airbus take on Boeing. But that is not the U.S.’s main beef with China.

    Instead, the U.S. is arguing that China unfairly regulates the conditions under which American firms can operate in China—with good reason. There is no doubt that the Chinese government regulates what American firms do in China, with a view both to protecting domestic firms and to ensuring that Chinese companies get access to leading-edge American intellectual property.

    My economics training tells me it does not matter “who wins” in innovation, because the whole world will benefit from more innovation no matter where it comes from.
    Consider, for example, the 15-year-old joint venture between General Motors and Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation that has resulted in GM’s selling more vehicles today in China than it does in America. This has been great for GM’s bottom line. But it has also increased the probability that China will soon have its own global auto company (not necessarily SAIC) that will compete head-to-head with GM inside and outside China. All the more likely given China’s enormous investments in electric and self-driving vehicles.

    Would American firms like to have unfettered access to the Chinese market? Would they prefer not to have to enter joint ventures with Chinese firms? Are they worried that “tech transfer” in China sometimes takes the form of intellectual property theft?

    Yes, to all three questions. This is just not the way the free market is supposed to operate. But the Chinese government says it has the right to regulate its own market, and it is improving intellectual property protections all the time. That is why China says what the U.S. is doing is unfair, and why its own retaliation is justified, focusing on industries like farming that might hurt Trump’s Republicans at the ballot box in November.

    2. Is the U.S. justified in retaliating with trade sanctions against China?

    The Chinese government says “no.” So, too, might the World Trade Organization, which has repeatedly questioned the legality of Section 301 because it makes the U.S. judge and jury in its disputes with other countries—when this is exactly the job the WTO was created to do.

    Even though the U.S. was the prime mover behind the creation of the WTO, it has always wanted to insist that it is above the international law, at least with respect to the powers it gave itself in the 1974 Trade Act, two decades before the creation of the WTO. All the more so in Trump’s America.

    This rules out at least two pathways to resolving the current dispute between China and the U.S. The U.S. will defend its right to act under Section 301. China will not appeal to the WTO to rule against the U.S. Instead, both countries will take matters into their own hands—that is exactly what has happened this year.

    3. Where will it end?

    In the past, I have argued that it is best to view things like trade spats between China and the U.S. as well-choreographed theater designed to appease domestic political audiences without threatening the underlying big economic win-wins between the two countries. It is easy to fit “steel for soybeans” tit-for-tat tariffs into that frame.

    But the stakes are much higher where the future of innovation is concerned. My economics training tells me it does not matter “who wins” in innovation, because the whole world will benefit from more innovation no matter where it comes from. Moreover, it is clear that the U.S. and China are complementary where innovation is concerned—the U.S. has a comparative advantage in incubating innovation; China’s comparative advantage is scaling it. This makes cooperation so much better than conflict.

    The problem with this thinking in the current situation is that the economic competition bleeds quickly over into concerns about military/security competition—and the rising power (China) vs incumbent power (U.S.) dynamic more generally. Cyber security is an obvious example. The same technologies that make industrial espionage possible and increase worries about personal data security are also increasingly the backbone of the 21st century military. In fact, most modern technology falls under the “dual use” rubric—important both to commerce and to security.

    Put it all together, and China-U.S. competition over innovation is here to stay. I do not expect the current trade tensions to spiral out of control—the potential for major damage to the economies of both countries, and to the global economy, is just too great. But even if Trump and Xi continue to emulate their predecessors in managing down their tensions, the underlying struggle over who will win the battle for global pre-eminence in innovation will only intensify. Calling it a trade war is not only misleading. It is also an understatement of what is really going on between the two most powerful countries in the world.

    Geoffrey Garrett is Dean, Reliance Professor of Management and Private Enterprise, and Professor of Management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Follow Geoff on Twitter.
     
  7. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    川普当选表明大部分美国人认同跟中国过去三四十年做生意不是双赢

    是土共整天追着说这是双赢
     
  8. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    美帝怕中国高铁了? 我怎么记得中国高铁是允许在美国竞争标的的。

    我们家邻居要总是惦记着偷我东西, 我还不离他远点, 甭管高科技低科技, 都离他远点

    我跟你说, 俄国对中国技术偷盗的抱怨也不会少。

    当然, 中国不管他叫偷, 因为在中国文化里自古偷师学艺都是作为有上进心的好故事来宣传的。:D
     
  9. 向问天

    向问天 日月神教光明左使 ID:112302 VIP

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    科学技术的进步成果是人类的共同财富。
    拿自己的东西是偷?
    你搞笑。
     
  10. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    这是经济学上双赢或共赢定义吗?这仅仅只是政治上的定义。所以赢不赢没谱。但根据我的常识,经济学家中对于赢不赢的看法,和川普的看法相差很大。
     
  11. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    科学技术是中性的, 本身没有好坏, 落到坏人手里问题就大了。所以越是关键的技术, 越是应该小心保管。

    现在的世界, 科学是无国界的, 大部分的论文都是公开的。但是实现一个技术,然后把技术再商业化, 是需要大量的体力和脑力劳动的。知识产权就是对这些劳动的尊重,而保证思想的自由和鼓励创造性的可持续性。中国作为一个三十年前, 科学技术还是很落后的国家, 只有你占别人的便宜而别人不会占你的便宜,你能这么说, 故意把科学和技术混在一起,是我穷我有理的无赖行为。
     
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  12. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    david ricardo
     
  13. 向问天

    向问天 日月神教光明左使 ID:112302 VIP

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    中国以前很多发明创造也是无偿给西方人的。

    再看看这里:

    当年英国人是如何偷走中国的种植茶叶技术的:
    https://wk.baidu.com/view/b0173aa3970590c69ec3d5bbfd0a79563c1ed408?pcf=2
    中国瓷器技术是如何被偷走的? 大批传教士来探秘
    http://www.chinanews.com/cul/2013/03-13/4637966.shtml
    美国人如何偷走中国的大豆基因:
     
  14. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    别光整个人名啊!咱们外行,你整个经济学大圣咱也无法崇拜呀。还是给扫扫盲,经济学上的双赢或共赢是如何定义的?
     
  15. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    现在茶叶还是集中在东南亚和中国, 事实上英美人也不喝中国人最多喝的绿茶。这也不是无尝主动送的。说明清朝政府并不愿意别人偷自己的技术。

    从你说的故事,我感觉你认为偷是不对的,
     

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