今天又要加息了

[ccc]

不加50点也不行啊，看看加元都跌成啥了。
加也难受，不加也难受
现在房产熄火，估计政府少了很多的税。

加元兑美元0.73，不算过低。

 

[sdzhangtao]

加元兑美元0.73，不算过低。

村长的耐受力大幅提高了。
这还是石油价格不低的情况。

 

[sdzhangtao]

央行利差（倒付利息给商业银行存的准备金）巨大，头一次亏损，也是政府的财务。

我觉得加息，政府比老百姓还难受，老百姓一般量入为出。据说90 年代每一刀的税收，有接近50分用来还债。具体数字忘了，反正当时被shock 了

 

[贾和平]

considering what BoC chairman said two years ago, his post is very ok for me

forget about any BoC chairman's signals. lesson learned. To say the least, they don't have any clues.

Blame his research team! it is Interesting to see BoC employees' bonuses this year when its annual report comes out sometime next year. The last year their bonuses are a total of 18 million for their crap research of " interests will stay low for a long time", which fired the RE market and negative operating leverage for some businesses.

Look at the hard data below,

In March 2022, the average Variable Morgage Rate was 1.45% ( HELOC was 2.95%);

9 months later in December 2022, the Variable mortgage Rate is 5.95%.

Assuming a 1 million mortgage borrowed:

Homeowners ( or investors) paid $1208/m in interest (only) in march 2022;

Homeowners ( or investors) paid $4958/m in interest (only) in December 2022.

 

[ccc]

村长的耐受力大幅提高了。
这还是石油价格不低的情况。

汽油价格低于140/L了。

 

[Fishottca]

Blame his research team! it is Interesting to see BoC employees' bonuses this year when its annual report comes out sometime next year. The last year their bonuses are a total of 18 million for their crap research of " interests will stay low for a long time", which fired the RE market and negative operating leverage for some businesses.

Look at the hard data below,

In March 2022, the average Variable Morgage Rate was 1.45% ( HELOC was 2.95%);

9 months later in December 2022, the Variable mortgage Rate is 5.95%.

Assuming a 1 million mortgage borrowed:

Homeowners ( or investors) paid $1208/m in interest (only) in march 2022;

Homeowners ( or investors) paid $4958/m in interest (only) in December 2022.

其实“狼来了"叫了很多年了只是没人信

 

[sdzhangtao]

其实“狼来了"叫了很多年了只是没人信

这个世界就是一个忽悠，当你觉得高息会持续很长时间，所有的钱都存GIC 的时候，他就降息QE 了

 

[sdzhangtao]

汽油价格低于140/L了。

140/L 真的很便宜

 

[billwanhua]

140/L 真的很便宜

油价崩了，这几天买油亏了不少，主要原因都是预测明年衰退大概率

 

[贾和平]

Manulife 2022 Fall survey:

Of course. The variable Rate Mortgage Stress Test was 5.25% in 2021, the real mortgage rate was 1.45% at the time.

After today's Increase, the variable Rate is 5.45%. The government stress test failed.

If these all happened in China, what could happen? I guess people could go down the streets and set fire to the PBOC building given the bank governor told them " interest rate will stay low for a long time."

 

[FlyingEagle]

现在房产熄火，估计政府少了很多的税。

12月本市房地产月报还未发布.
11月本市房地产月报说明,房地产库存还是偏低（正常情况下是4个月的库存）,房子仍然供不应求，进一步增强今天央行加息0.5%将基准利率升至4.25%的信心,。那些预测今天央行不会加息的经济学家对房地产库存和通胀理解不够透彻。

Ottawa Housing Market Report
Market Report Summary for October 2022
Updated November 4th, 2022

There are 3 months of inventory in the market for condominiums and 3.3 months for freehold homes, which is a significant improvement compared with half a month of residential inventory seen at the end of March.

Ottawa Housing Market Report: Nov. 4th, 2022 Update - WOWA.ca

In October 2022, the average home sale price in Ottawa decreased by 17.6% from its peak in March 2022. The average price fell to $624,003, representing an annual decrease of 2.4% and an increase of 13.3% over the past two years. Also, the 987 transactions in October represent a yearly decline of...

wowa.ca

​

随着房地产库存恢复到4个月,央行就可能停止加息？

房地产库存超过4个月,并不断增长至6个月以上,央行就可能开始降息？

几天前的新闻报道，安省的年轻人需要存款20年才能付20%的购房首付。房地产价格还是太高，房子仍然供不应求。现在说房产熄火，为时尚早。等房地产库存超过6个月，才说明房产大幅降温。等房地产库存超过1年，才说明房产熄火。

Ontario millennials need to save for over 20 years for down payment on a home: report
Dec. 3, 2022

Ontario millennials need to save for over 20 years for down payment on a home: report

A new report shows house prices need to drop by more than $500,000 for millennials to be able to afford a home in Ontario.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

 

[xyc]

大量移民的涌进还会有很多库存吗？现在房子跌了20%，原来70万的town现在可能56万，但是56万5.25%利率的月供和利息比原来70万1.5%的月供和利息高太多。买不起的还是买不起，当然全部付现金的除外。

 

[云霞]

大量移民的涌进还会有很多库存吗？现在房子跌了20%，原来70万的town现在可能56万，但是56万5.25%利率的月供和利息比原来70万1.5%的月供和利息高太多。买不起的还是买不起，当然全部付现金的除外。

Townhome 降了那么多？

 

[northeast]

先加息，把房价降下来，稳定后，再降息，年轻一代就可以买得起房了。习大人说了房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的。

 

[billwanhua]

我觉得加息，政府比老百姓还难受，老百姓一般量入为出。据说90 年代每一刀的税收，有接近50分用来还债。具体数字忘了，反正当时被shock 了

不要高估了民众的承受能力，已经知道有两个华人新房交房贷不了款到处借钱的了。
未来一年不仅利息，还有失业率高升

其实炒股损失还是好的，过去两年买房的都是杠杆操作（80%贷款），比股票损失高多了。