Surprise interest rate cut aimed to boosting growth in economy
SANDRA CORDON
Canadian Press
Tuesday, July 15, 2003
OTTAWA (CP) - The Bank of Canada's surprise cut in interest rates Tuesday should turn up the heat under a cooling economy and take some of the steam out of the roaring dollar, analysts say.
Experts applauded the central bank's decision to trim its key overnight interest rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 3.0 per cent, saying that should particularly target Canada's troubled export sector. And they say the bank has left the door open for another rate cut in September if matters don't improve.
Cheaper loans will make it easier for consumers to buy homes, automobiles and other big-ticket items. Reduced borrowing costs should also keep the hot housing market - one of the few sectors of the economy that hasn't slumped - smoking.
Big retail banks quickly matched the central bank rate cut, reducing prime lending rates by a quarter-point to 4.75 per cent.
The problem isn't so much the consumer sector as the export industry, which has been buffetted by weak demand from the United States coupled with a soaring loonie, said Marc Levesque, senior economist with TD Bank.
"That's going to be enough to pull overall growth down, he said."
The impact of the rate cut was felt immediately as shocked currency traders, who expected no change in rates, sold off the dollar.
It lost almost one cent in value Tuesday, closing at 71.83 US on Tuesday, down 0.91 of a cent from Monday's close.
A cooler currency was one result the central bank was hoping for when it dramatically reversed its previous policy of raising rates.
"I think one of the goals here was the bank wanted to avoid another huge runup in the Canadian dollar - that would really dampen the economy at this point," said Doug Porter, senior economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns.
As recently as April 15, the bank was increasing borrowing costs because it feared the economy was growing too fast and was in danger of setting inflation aflame.
But soon after, the situation turned bad.
Higher rates caused the dollar to skyrocket, up 17 per cent in the first six months of 2003; the SARS outbreak hit Toronto twice and a single case of mad cow became a major crisis in Western Canada.
"The world has changed dramatically since (April). . . and today's rate cut is a real testimonial as to how flexible the Bank of Canada can be," Levesque said.
If the dollar doesn't cool and economic growth begins to recover, the bank could cut again at its next rate-setting date in September, analysts say.
The loonie will probably continue to drift upwards - possibly to 75 cents US by year-end - as the U.S. greenback comes under pressure from Washington's budget and current account deficits, said Levesque.
"There's still going to be pretty hard times for Canadian exporters because the dollar is going to remain well supported, you're not going to see it drop back below 70 cents US."
But the key to a real recovery here is a rebound in the United States, this country's largest trading partner.
U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday he will keep cutting the key interest rate - already at a 45-year low of just one per cent - if that's what it takes to trigger a recovery.
The gap between Canadian and U.S. rates has been a factor buoying the loonie.
So lower rates "will reduce the pressure on manufacturers and exporters," said Jayson Myers, chief economist with Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.
"However, it's also an indication that the Canadian economy is weaker than was generally supposed earlier in the year."
More details of the central bank's economic outlook will come Thursday, when it releases the semi-annual update to its Monetary Policy Report.
Strong employment and housing reports last week led the vast majority of analysts to predict rates would be left unchanged amid signs of improvements in the economy.
But the central bank focuses on inflation and Tuesday, it highlighted the fact the consumer price index has fallen much faster than expected - suggesting underlying weakness.
The bank said it expects improved growth by year-end and into 2004, but it still wanted to take out a bit of insurance.
"In recent months, there have been a number of unanticipated developments that bear on the outlook for inflation and economic activity in Canada," the bank said in a statement.
Updated inflation figures due next week will also indicate the state of growth in the economy.
The last consumer price index for May showed the core rate of inflation - which excludes some volatile food and energy items and is most closely watched by the central bank - was a mere 2.3 per cent.
That's roughly where the bank likes to see inflation but could also suggest the economy isn't terribly robust.
Text of the Bank of Canada's announcement Tuesday of its reduction in the overnight rate by one-quarter of a point to three per cent:
In recent months, there have been a number of unanticipated developments that bear on the outlook for inflation and economic activity in Canada. Both inflation and inflation expectations have declined more rapidly than the bank had expected. Near-term domestic economic activity has been undercut by the effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and an isolated case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada. Foreign demand for Canadian products has also been weaker than earlier anticipated. In addition, the rapid and sizable appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. currency will tend to have a dampening effect on the demand for tradable Canadian goods and services.
In this context, inflation pressures have eased and more economic slack is opening up in Canada than was previously projected. Today's interest rate reduction will provide support for domestic demand growth, and consequently for levels of aggregate demand consistent with keeping inflation on a track to meet the two per cent target over the medium term.
Looking ahead, the bank still expects that growth in the Canadian economy will strengthen towards the end of 2003 and through 2004, underpinned by domestic demand, by the favourable conditions in capital markets, and by the anticipated rebound in the U.S. economy.