讨论长线股市投资： 机会，风险，历史经验
- 主题发起人 tai_ji88
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- 2004-02-10
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你真牛。
顶 for fiends
1. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/my-watchlist/ can be used to check the performance of the stock, ETF, and all mutual Funds.
2. I like to select ETFs from ishare ETF fund: https://www.blackrock.com/ca/indivi...ist#!type=iSharesETFCA&tab=overview&view=list
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor
4. cdz and tsx index price comparison (excluding dividend payment. currently CDZ dividend is about 4%, about 1% higher than TSX index ETFs XIU and XIC). The following diagram covered the 2008/2009 economic crisis with stock market melt down for about 50%drop. However, for long term investment, the investment on CDZ or XIU and XIC had a 10 year average return 4.92% to 6.38%, much higher than 2-3% inflation, much higher than GIC too.
1. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/my-watchlist/ can be used to check the performance of the stock, ETF, and all mutual Funds.
2. I like to select ETFs from ishare ETF fund: https://www.blackrock.com/ca/indivi...ist#!type=iSharesETFCA&tab=overview&view=list
- CDZ, a Canadian dividend ETF, yield is about 4% at this time. It has better performance than most of Canadian dividend mutual funds, due to its low MER. good historic performance when being compared with cdn index
- XDV, a Canadian dividend ETF, yield is about 4% at this time. Hower, it looks to be less diversified than CDZ. It has 50% exposure in finance sector at one point.
- CUD, a US dividend ETF, better for being hold in registered accounts such as RRSP, TFSA, RESP for reason of US dividend payment tax treatment in Canada
- specialized Canadian/Global high dividend ETFs, for diversification
- XFN, for Canadian finance sector, good historic performance when being compared with cdn index
- XRE, for Canadian real-estate sector, P/E=14 yield is about 5% at this time
- CGR for global real-estate sector, good historic performance, better for being hold in registered accounts for income tax treatment reason
- Canadian TSX index ETFs: P/E is about 16, yield is about 2.8% on Aug 5, 2016
- XIU, XIC. Holding index funds can save the effort for detailed fund selection with a return that can be better than the average of all mutual funds.
- US S&P 500 index ETFs: P/E is about 18, yield is about 2% on Aug 5, 2016
- XUS (in TSX & in Cdn dollar),
- SPY (https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=SPY),
- high-risk ETFs
- XMA, if you have patience to buy when the market is down a lot, and at a historic low price. For example, you may bought this at $8.50 in early this year. Now it is about $15.00
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor
4. cdz and tsx index price comparison (excluding dividend payment. currently CDZ dividend is about 4%, about 1% higher than TSX index ETFs XIU and XIC). The following diagram covered the 2008/2009 economic crisis with stock market melt down for about 50%drop. However, for long term investment, the investment on CDZ or XIU and XIC had a 10 year average return 4.92% to 6.38%, much higher than 2-3% inflation, much higher than GIC too.
- Ticker: InceptionDate : As Of : YTD (%) 1Y (%) 3Y (%) 5Y (%) 10Y (%) Incept (%)
- CDZ Sep 8, 2006; Jul 31, 2016; 11.86 5.10 6.38 6.96 - 6.38
- XDV Dec 19, 2005; Jul 31, 2016; 12.45 4.31 4.99 6.24 5.40 5.30
- XIC Feb 16, 2001; Jul 31, 2016; 14.08 3.96 8.41 5.37 4.92 6.24
- XIU Sep 28, 1999; Jul 31, 2016; 12.78 2.32 8.87 5.91 5.13 6.85
- XRE Oct 17, 2002; Jul 31, 2016; 23.25 14.00 9.60 8.09 7.79 10.73
- XFN Mar 23, 2001; Jul 31, 2016; 7.55 5.20 9.90 10.24 6.47 9.17
附件
最后编辑:
Lost boy 0922
新手上路
- 注册
- 2016-09-22
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咋不做60年的长线呢？
'I feel duped': Why bank employees with impressive but misleading titles could cost you big time
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-s-deceptive-titles-put-investments-at-risk-1.4044702
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-s-deceptive-titles-put-investments-at-risk-1.4044702
- Turns out, the RBC vice-president was actually licensed as something called a "dealing representative" — a salesperson.
- Deceptive employee titles: A recent report by the Small Investor Protection Association found there are 121,000 people registered as financial professionals in Canada, and the vast majority are registered as dealing representatives — salespeople licensed to sell financial investments.
Only about 4,000 of these registered financial professionals have a fiduciary duty, which is a legal obligation to act in the client's best interest. - "The game today is to earn clients' trust," said Larry Elford, a former certified investment manager with RBC and lead researcher of the SIPA report. "And never let them know that you are actually a commissioned salesperson and you don't have to honour that trust."
- The stakes are high, says Elford, who points out that a two per cent management fee on mutual funds typically cuts an investor's retirement fund by about half over a 35-year period.
- What's in a vowel?
A common trick for misleading customers, according to Elford, is the banking industry's use of the term "financial advisor" — spelled with an "o."
He says "advisor" is an unregulated title that anyone can use, whereas the title "adviser" — spelled with an "e" — can only be used if the employee has a fiduciary responsibility to the client.
"Advisors can sell you the third, fourth, fifth or least beneficial product to you," Elford said. "They do that a great deal of the time if it makes them more commissions, or if their bank manager is telling them they need to sell more of the house-brand product."
In an email to Go Public, the Canadian Securities Administrators confirmed that it does not regulate most titles used by employees in the financial industry.
- TD financial advisor who recently quit: ' I had zero training and had to learn on the go.'
最后编辑:
Why extreme market predictions like those from Jim Rogers provide no value
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/extr...ke-jim-rogers-provide-no-value-144747654.html
2011: 100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers
2012: Jim Rogers: It’s Going To Get Really “Bad After The Next Election”
2013: Jim Rogers Warns: “You Better Run for the Hills!”
2014: JIM ROGERS – Sell Everything & Run For Your Lives
2015: Jim Rogers: “We’re Overdue” for a Stock Market Crash
2016: $68 TRILLION “BIBLICAL CRASH” Dead Ahead? Jim Rogers Issues a DIRE WARNING
2017: THE BOTTOM LINE: Legendary investor Jim Rogers expects the worst crash in our lifetime
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/extr...ke-jim-rogers-provide-no-value-144747654.html
2011: 100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers
2012: Jim Rogers: It’s Going To Get Really “Bad After The Next Election”
2013: Jim Rogers Warns: “You Better Run for the Hills!”
2014: JIM ROGERS – Sell Everything & Run For Your Lives
2015: Jim Rogers: “We’re Overdue” for a Stock Market Crash
2016: $68 TRILLION “BIBLICAL CRASH” Dead Ahead? Jim Rogers Issues a DIRE WARNING
2017: THE BOTTOM LINE: Legendary investor Jim Rogers expects the worst crash in our lifetime
"来自国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据显示，截至2016年底，中国的债务占GDP的比重为257%，略高于美国，大大高于新兴经济体184%的总体水平。"
"Crescat Capital的史密斯说，他认为全球投资者面对中国带来的威胁时仍然太自以为是。他把中国称为“我们平生所见的最大宏观泡沫”，他说问题之严重“已经超出了全球金融监管机构所宣称的曾让其他国家在历史上遭遇麻烦的那种程度”。"
from: http://global.dwnews.com/news/2017-06-19/59820922.html
"Crescat Capital的史密斯说，他认为全球投资者面对中国带来的威胁时仍然太自以为是。他把中国称为“我们平生所见的最大宏观泡沫”，他说问题之严重“已经超出了全球金融监管机构所宣称的曾让其他国家在历史上遭遇麻烦的那种程度”。"
from: http://global.dwnews.com/news/2017-06-19/59820922.html
躺着也能挣钱，智能投资真的比人类更靠谱吗？
http://blog.dwnews.com/post-971595.html
https://www.phototw.net/news/201709/d4kz8k4p.html
"Betterment和Wealthfront是人们最耳熟能详的智能投顾公司，如今它们已经成长为资产管理规模数十亿美元的投顾平台。
根据最新的数据，betterment管理了大概60亿美元的资产，成为规模最大的智能投顾公司。"
"2012年1月——2016年3月期间Betterment平台上一组增长型计划组合（90%股票ETF+10%债券ETF）的累计收益率为36.7%，权益类资产配置比例在80%-100%之间的投资者实际平均收益率27.6%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为61.19%。
很遗憾，从数据来看智能投资顾问还是没有跑赢指数！比起智能投顾的名声在外，它所带来的收益确实有点令人失望。"
http://blog.dwnews.com/post-971595.html
https://www.phototw.net/news/201709/d4kz8k4p.html
"Betterment和Wealthfront是人们最耳熟能详的智能投顾公司，如今它们已经成长为资产管理规模数十亿美元的投顾平台。
根据最新的数据，betterment管理了大概60亿美元的资产，成为规模最大的智能投顾公司。"
"2012年1月——2016年3月期间Betterment平台上一组增长型计划组合（90%股票ETF+10%债券ETF）的累计收益率为36.7%，权益类资产配置比例在80%-100%之间的投资者实际平均收益率27.6%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为61.19%。
很遗憾，从数据来看智能投资顾问还是没有跑赢指数！比起智能投顾的名声在外，它所带来的收益确实有点令人失望。"
"Investors may want to forget the market crash and focus on an even worse threat — such as a cheap money bubble caused by repeated rate cuts.
Right now, central banks are pumping up that bubble. But if the coronavirus doesn’t burst the bubble, something else will. Either way, that bubble will burst. When it does, it will be a day of reckoning for investors everywhere. The current volatility, with its historic troughs and heroic peaks, could pale by comparison."
The Real TSX Stock Market Crash Hasn’t Even Hit Yet https://www.fool.ca/2020/04/09/the-real-tsx-stock-market-crash-hasnt-even-hit-yet/
Right now, central banks are pumping up that bubble. But if the coronavirus doesn’t burst the bubble, something else will. Either way, that bubble will burst. When it does, it will be a day of reckoning for investors everywhere. The current volatility, with its historic troughs and heroic peaks, could pale by comparison."
The Real TSX Stock Market Crash Hasn’t Even Hit Yet https://www.fool.ca/2020/04/09/the-real-tsx-stock-market-crash-hasnt-even-hit-yet/
"A worldwide credit crunch triggered by the coronavirus will set in motion a wave of corporate bankruptcies that will make the global financial crisis look like “child’s play”, investors have warned. "
...
"US treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said unemployment could rise to 20% in America in what the ratings agency Moody’s said was an “unprecedented” shock to the system. S&P warned this week that these factors would lead to a “surge” in corporate bankruptcies. "
...
"Angus Coote, of Jamieson Coote Bonds in Melbourne, said the crisis could soon explode the massive debt bubble inflated by years of low interest rates and cheap money. "
“$2tn worth of corporate debt is due to be rolled over this year but the market has completely frozen. The market is essentially closed. It’s a disaster.”
"Banks are also in jeopardy, according to David, and could soon require the kind of bailout packages that saved them in the GFC and which are now looking certain to be rolled out for airlines, carmakers and a whole range of other sectors. "
www.theguardian.com
...
"US treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said unemployment could rise to 20% in America in what the ratings agency Moody’s said was an “unprecedented” shock to the system. S&P warned this week that these factors would lead to a “surge” in corporate bankruptcies. "
...
"Angus Coote, of Jamieson Coote Bonds in Melbourne, said the crisis could soon explode the massive debt bubble inflated by years of low interest rates and cheap money. "
“$2tn worth of corporate debt is due to be rolled over this year but the market has completely frozen. The market is essentially closed. It’s a disaster.”
"Banks are also in jeopardy, according to David, and could soon require the kind of bailout packages that saved them in the GFC and which are now looking certain to be rolled out for airlines, carmakers and a whole range of other sectors. "
Coronavirus credit crunch could make 2008 look like 'child's play'
Experts warn companies that have gorged on cheap money for the past decade face going out of business
"The S&P 500 started February with a CAPE of 33, putting it roughly at the level of the 1929 pre-Depression top. The CAPE has only been significantly higher once in the entire history of the American stock market, and that was at the peak of the 1990s tech bubble.
The bloodletting we saw in February and March took a lot of the speculative froth out of the market and knocked the CAPE down to about 23. It’s since recovered to just shy of 26 as I write this.
A CAPE of 26 looks a lot better than a CAPE of 33. But it’s far from cheap.
To put it in context, the CAPE was sitting at roughly these levels at the 2007 top. The CAPE bottomed in 2009 at 13, literally half of today’s levels."
Is the Stock Market Actually Cheap? Not According to the CAPE Ratio
moneyandmarkets.com
The bloodletting we saw in February and March took a lot of the speculative froth out of the market and knocked the CAPE down to about 23. It’s since recovered to just shy of 26 as I write this.
A CAPE of 26 looks a lot better than a CAPE of 33. But it’s far from cheap.
To put it in context, the CAPE was sitting at roughly these levels at the 2007 top. The CAPE bottomed in 2009 at 13, literally half of today’s levels."
Is the Stock Market Actually Cheap? Not According to the CAPE Ratio
Sizemore: Is the Stock Market Actually Cheap? Not According to the CAPE Ratio
The S&P 500’s annual returns will likely be below average over the better part of the next decade.
moneyandmarkets.com
