讨论长线股市投资： 机会，风险，历史经验

[tai_ji88]

"There are a variety of professional investors who are buying back in for a variety of reasons: short-sellers squeezed by the sharp reversal and forced to cover positions, funds managers who can’t afford to miss out on gains or risk falling far behind the indexes. “This is trader and professional money driving this market,” Scott Wren, a managing director at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told the New York Times. "

"Mark Cuban remains cautious and is raising cash. Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, says stocks are cheap and buying opportunities abound, but he still expects another leg down in the market."

"There are other reasons to be cautious to read too much into a single crisis trading period. Financials were down more than 40% in the three-month period referenced here related to the Lehman bankruptcy, and for obvious reasons that are not likely to be repeated. "

Afraid to buy into this market? A key 2008 financial-crisis moment isn't reassuring

It takes the market time to digest shocks. How investors reacted in months after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 offers a window onto why some remain reluctant to buy stocks.

www.cnbc.com

Should You Buy Stocks Now or Wait? Here's Buffett's Advice. | The Motley Fool

With the S&P 500 down sharply from recent highs during this coronavirus market crash, is now the time to invest?

www.fool.com

 

[tai_ji88]

What’s the right exposure to US & Canadian Equities?​

Analyzing over 20 year - long-term​

• IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, from Incept 05/15/2000 to Nov 30, 2022) 6.65%
• XIC (iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF, from Incept Feb 16, 2001 to Nov 30, 2022) 6.94%

 

[So what]

顶 for fiends

1. Watchlist for Stocks, Mutual Funds & more can be used to check the performance of the stock, ETF, and all mutual Funds.

2. I like to select ETFs from ishare ETF fund: Financial Planning & Investment Management | BlackRock

• CDZ, a Canadian dividend ETF, yield is about 4% at this time. It has better performance than most of Canadian dividend mutual funds, due to its low MER. good historic performance when being compared with cdn index
• XDV, a Canadian dividend ETF, yield is about 4% at this time. Hower, it looks to be less diversified than CDZ. It has 50% exposure in finance sector at one point.
• CUD, a US dividend ETF, better for being hold in registered accounts such as RRSP, TFSA, RESP for reason of US dividend payment tax treatment in Canada
• specialized Canadian/Global high dividend ETFs, for diversification
  • XFN, for Canadian finance sector, good historic performance when being compared with cdn index
  • XRE, for Canadian real-estate sector, P/E=14 yield is about 5% at this time
  • CGR for global real-estate sector, good historic performance, better for being hold in registered accounts for income tax treatment reason
• Canadian TSX index ETFs: P/E is about 16, yield is about 2.8% on Aug 5, 2016
  • XIU, XIC. Holding index funds can save the effort for detailed fund selection with a return that can be better than the average of all mutual funds.
• US S&P 500 index ETFs: P/E is about 18, yield is about 2% on Aug 5, 2016
  • XUS (in TSX & in Cdn dollar),
  • SPY (United States Fund Finder & ETF Screener | SPDR),
• high-risk ETFs
  • XMA, if you have patience to buy when the market is down a lot, and at a historic low price. For example, you may bought this at $8.50 in early this year. Now it is about $15.00

3. a widely acclaimed book on value investing: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
The Intelligent Investor - Wikipedia

4. cdz and tsx index price comparison (excluding dividend payment. currently CDZ dividend is about 4%, about 1% higher than TSX index ETFs XIU and XIC). The following diagram covered the 2008/2009 economic crisis with stock market melt down for about 50%drop. However, for long term investment, the investment on CDZ or XIU and XIC had a 10 year average return 4.92% to 6.38%, much higher than 2-3% inflation, much higher than GIC too.

• Ticker: InceptionDate : As Of : YTD (%) 1Y (%) 3Y (%) 5Y (%) 10Y (%) Incept (%)
• CDZ Sep 8, 2006; Jul 31, 2016; 11.86 5.10 6.38 6.96 - 6.38
• XDV Dec 19, 2005; Jul 31, 2016; 12.45 4.31 4.99 6.24 5.40 5.30
• XIC Feb 16, 2001; Jul 31, 2016; 14.08 3.96 8.41 5.37 4.92 6.24
• XIU Sep 28, 1999; Jul 31, 2016; 12.78 2.32 8.87 5.91 5.13 6.85
• XRE Oct 17, 2002; Jul 31, 2016; 23.25 14.00 9.60 8.09 7.79 10.73
• XFN Mar 23, 2001; Jul 31, 2016; 7.55 5.20 9.90 10.24 6.47 9.17

note: above data is from Financial Planning & Investment Management | BlackRock

谢楼主分享信息 现在市场下，对原来的评判有没有什么调整？

 

[tai_ji88]

谢楼主分享信息 现在市场下，对原来的评判有没有什么调整？

整体思路仍然是 passive investing, focusing on index ETF.

• 根据 2020 年的一份报告，在 15 年期间，近 90% 的主动管理型投资基金未能跑赢市场。
• 投资组合经理通常是受过常春藤盟校教育的投资者，他们整个工作日都在试图跑赢股市。
• 如果投资专业人士不能始终如一地击败市场，那么典型的 at-home投资者不太可能取得更好的结果.

根据对标普 SPIVA 报告的分析，在过去 15 年中，在所有国内主动管理型股票基金中，88.4% 的表现逊于各自的基准。
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• According to a 2020 report, over a 15-year period, nearly 90% of actively managed investment funds failed to beat the market. [1]
• Portfolio managers are often Ivy League-educated investors who spend their entire workday attempting to outperform the stock market.[1]
• If investment professionals can't consistently beat the market, it's unlikely that the typical at-home investor would achieve better results.[1]

Most actively managed funds underperform compared to the market as a whole. Across all domestic actively managed equity funds, 88.4% underperformed their respective benchmark over the last 15 years, according to an analysis of the S&P SPIVA report. [1]


References:

1. Most investment pros can't beat the stock market, so why do everyday investors think they can win?

 

[tai_ji88]

US and Canadian Index ETFs' Total Return over 10 year and 20 year SPANs - very long-term

• IVV ( iShares Core S&P 500 ETF - US, from Inception 05/15/2000 to Dec 31, 2022) : 6.35% (12.52% in last 10years )
• XIC (iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF - CAD, from Inception Feb 16, 2001 to Dec 31, 2022) : 6.67% (7.69% in last 10years )

MERs: IVV: 0.03%, XIC: 0.06%.