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这是《渥太华公民报》近一个月前的报道，看看为什么村里保守党竞选人失利。
Denley: Why the Conservatives are in trouble in Ottawa
Randall Denley
More from Randall Denley
Published on: September 16, 2015 | Last Updated: September 16, 2015 10:02 AM EDT
Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper delivered a rousing speech to the party faithful inside the Greyhound bus repair terminal on Bantree St. in Ottawa Friday night. Wayne Cuddington / Ottawa Citizen
The federal election is neck–and-neck nationally, but local Conservative candidates appear to be in trouble. There is a reason why Prime Minister Stephen Harper has suddenly been spending a lot of time wooing Ottawa voters.
The Conservatives hold five local seats and were considered likely to win the new Nepean riding, but internal party polling shows that they currently trail the Liberals in four of those seats. Only Pierre Poilievre has a comfortable lead in Nepean-Carleton. The Tories are also close in Kanata-Carleton. They are said to be hopelessly far behind in Orleans and behind by mid-single digit margins in Nepean, Ottawa West-Nepean and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.
The party’s internal numbers are supported by the riding breakdowns provided by the poll tracking website threehundredeight.com.
Riding-level polling information can be unreliable, but there are several reasons why the Conservatives could be looking at a poor result locally.
Nationally, the Conservatives are down about 10 percentage points from their 2011 election result and the Liberals are up by a similar number. It’s no surprise to see a Liberal resurgence here, given the party’s consistently strong showing at the provincial level and weak NDP performance in Ottawa.
There is also a public service factor in play. The big public service unions are on a mission to get rid of the Conservatives and public servants are a significant voting bloc here. On the weekend, Harper tried to explain public service sick pay reductions as a matter of efficiency, but that’s not going to persuade people who are losing their entitlements. When a party chooses to use a budget bill to allow it to change sick pay rules unilaterally, it’s tough to put a good spin on it.
Compounding the public service discontent is the fact that veterans are displeased with the Conservatives’ treatment of them. In a military town, that’s huge.
The retirement of popular cabinet minister John Baird has also left a big hole in the Conservative team. Baird was respected, well-liked and had a record of fighting for Ottawa. Poilievre has stepped into the void, but he has a polarizing style that limits his ability to be the kind of local leader whose image benefits candidates in other ridings.
Still, Poilievre is the Conservatives’ top local candidate. It goes down sharply from there. First-time candidates Andy Wang, Abdul Abdi and Walter Pamic have limited name recognition in the community. Pamic is a well-spoken and successful businessman. Abdi is a police officer with record of community work. Wang is smart and engaging but at 27, he’s awfully short on life experience.
These are not bad candidates, but they are not the type who will draw many extra votes when the central campaign is faltering. The party isn’t helping them any by demanding that they keep a low profile and stick to their talking points. It makes them look generic.
The Conservative candidate recruitment process in Ottawa was so weak that one has to wonder if they even took it seriously. Ottawa West-Nepean, a riding the Conservatives hold and one with a large war chest, did not attract a single candidate of significant stature. When it became clear that Liberal star and former general Andrew Leslie was going to run in Orleans, the party should have found a stronger candidate than the eccentric Royal Galipeau.
While it is good to see a couple of candidates from Ottawa’s substantial minority communities in the Conservative fold, they don’t have any women running. The Liberals have three credible female candidates.
The local Conservative organizations have not been very good at nurturing candidates at the city council or provincial level, so there are experienced people to step up to the federal level. Failing to pursue strong potential candidates such as MPP Lisa Macleod and former city councillor Steve Desroches was a missed opportunity.
The local Conservative candidates might still be carried to victory by an improvement in the party’s national campaign, but they are more likely to be lightning rods for public service discontent.
Randall Denley is a strategic communications consultant and former Ontario PC candidate.
Denley: Why the Conservatives are in trouble in Ottawa
Randall DenleyMore from Randall Denley
Published on: September 16, 2015 | Last Updated: September 16, 2015 10:02 AM EDT
Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper delivered a rousing speech to the party faithful inside the Greyhound bus repair terminal on Bantree St. in Ottawa Friday night. Wayne Cuddington / Ottawa Citizen
The federal election is neck–and-neck nationally, but local Conservative candidates appear to be in trouble. There is a reason why Prime Minister Stephen Harper has suddenly been spending a lot of time wooing Ottawa voters.
The Conservatives hold five local seats and were considered likely to win the new Nepean riding, but internal party polling shows that they currently trail the Liberals in four of those seats. Only Pierre Poilievre has a comfortable lead in Nepean-Carleton. The Tories are also close in Kanata-Carleton. They are said to be hopelessly far behind in Orleans and behind by mid-single digit margins in Nepean, Ottawa West-Nepean and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.
The party’s internal numbers are supported by the riding breakdowns provided by the poll tracking website threehundredeight.com.
Riding-level polling information can be unreliable, but there are several reasons why the Conservatives could be looking at a poor result locally.
Nationally, the Conservatives are down about 10 percentage points from their 2011 election result and the Liberals are up by a similar number. It’s no surprise to see a Liberal resurgence here, given the party’s consistently strong showing at the provincial level and weak NDP performance in Ottawa.
There is also a public service factor in play. The big public service unions are on a mission to get rid of the Conservatives and public servants are a significant voting bloc here. On the weekend, Harper tried to explain public service sick pay reductions as a matter of efficiency, but that’s not going to persuade people who are losing their entitlements. When a party chooses to use a budget bill to allow it to change sick pay rules unilaterally, it’s tough to put a good spin on it.
Compounding the public service discontent is the fact that veterans are displeased with the Conservatives’ treatment of them. In a military town, that’s huge.
The retirement of popular cabinet minister John Baird has also left a big hole in the Conservative team. Baird was respected, well-liked and had a record of fighting for Ottawa. Poilievre has stepped into the void, but he has a polarizing style that limits his ability to be the kind of local leader whose image benefits candidates in other ridings.
Still, Poilievre is the Conservatives’ top local candidate. It goes down sharply from there. First-time candidates Andy Wang, Abdul Abdi and Walter Pamic have limited name recognition in the community. Pamic is a well-spoken and successful businessman. Abdi is a police officer with record of community work. Wang is smart and engaging but at 27, he’s awfully short on life experience.
These are not bad candidates, but they are not the type who will draw many extra votes when the central campaign is faltering. The party isn’t helping them any by demanding that they keep a low profile and stick to their talking points. It makes them look generic.
The Conservative candidate recruitment process in Ottawa was so weak that one has to wonder if they even took it seriously. Ottawa West-Nepean, a riding the Conservatives hold and one with a large war chest, did not attract a single candidate of significant stature. When it became clear that Liberal star and former general Andrew Leslie was going to run in Orleans, the party should have found a stronger candidate than the eccentric Royal Galipeau.
While it is good to see a couple of candidates from Ottawa’s substantial minority communities in the Conservative fold, they don’t have any women running. The Liberals have three credible female candidates.
The local Conservative organizations have not been very good at nurturing candidates at the city council or provincial level, so there are experienced people to step up to the federal level. Failing to pursue strong potential candidates such as MPP Lisa Macleod and former city councillor Steve Desroches was a missed opportunity.
The local Conservative candidates might still be carried to victory by an improvement in the party’s national campaign, but they are more likely to be lightning rods for public service discontent.
Randall Denley is a strategic communications consultant and former Ontario PC candidate.
