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http://ottawacitizen.com/news/polit...-liberals-would-get-a-supermajority-says-poll
If Canadians went to polls today, Liberals would get 'supermajority', survey says
JOANNE LAUCIUS, OTTAWA CITIZEN
More from Joanne Laucius, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: May 16, 2016 | Last Updated: May 16, 2016 7:01 AM EDT
The honeymoon with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party just keeps on going, according to a Forum Research telephone survey. FRED CHARTRAND / THE CANADIAN PRESS
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A telephone survey of more than 1,500 Canadian voters has concluded that we would do it again — and then some.
Vote Liberal, that is. A random sampling of 1,517 Canadians over the age 18 by Forum Research found that 52 per cent would vote Liberal if an election were held today, enough to create a Liberal “supermajority” in the House of Commons, stealing almost all of the NDP seats and a few from the Tories.
“The Liberals started with a honeymoon. At this point, not only is the honeymoon still on, but the Liberals are still gaining,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.
If the poll results were projected to the House of Commons, the Liberals would take three-quarters of the seats — 261, compared to the 184 they won in the federal election last October — while the Conservatives would have 69 seats compared to the 98 they currently hold. The NDP would hold just seven seats, according to the survey. They won 44 last fall. The Green party would retain Leader Elizabeth May’s seat.
The Liberals won 40 per cent of the vote in October, but Forum Research’s polls in November showed that support shot up to 55 per cent. That’s not unusual for a winning party after an election, said Bozinoff. After that, support dropped to the 40s. But in March, support for the Liberals nudged up to 51 per cent and rose to 52 per cent in the most recent survey, conducted on April 10 and 11.
Of those who voted NDP in the October election, 40 per cent would vote Liberal today, while 14 per cent of those who voted Conservative would cast a ballot for the Liberals.
“The Liberals have out-NDPed the NDP on deficit spending and infrastructure spending. Mulcair has been missing in action in terms of leadership,” said Bozinoff. “The Liberals have done what they said they would do. They delivered the NDP’s agenda.”
The poll found that the Liberals lead or are tied everywhere but Alberta, where the Conservatives lead by 52 per cent compared to 42 per cent for the Liberals.
Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau’s vote share and his approvals remain “improbably high”.
The poll found that Trudeau has the approval of 57 per cent of voters and his “net favorability rating” — approvals minus disapprovals — is a very positive +24. Trudeau draws the approval of almost half of NDP supporters and 12 per cent of Conservatives. Among Liberals, his approval is 91 per cent.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, who said last week that he expects to be replaced as NDP leader within a year, has seen his approval increase from 32 per cent last month to 36 per cent, and his net score increased from -4 to +5.
More than a third of Liberals and almost a quarter of Conservatives approve of him. Mulcair outperforms his party right now, which is a worrisome signal for the NDP, said Bozinoff.
Interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose has the approval of 31 per cent of voters, and her net score is a relatively neutral +5 — but that’s because 42 per cent of those polled said they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. She has the approval of 57 per cent of Conservative supporters.
“We have two parties without permanent leaders. On that situation, it’s hard for a party to get traction,” said Bozinoff. “The Liberals seem to be delivering on a lot of their promises. As long as the Liberals are seen to be doing things, they’ll keep their forward momentum.”
The telephone poll was conducted using interactive voice response, known as “robocalls.” Results based on the total sample are considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
If Canadians went to polls today, Liberals would get 'supermajority', survey says
JOANNE LAUCIUS, OTTAWA CITIZENMore from Joanne Laucius, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: May 16, 2016 | Last Updated: May 16, 2016 7:01 AM EDT
The honeymoon with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party just keeps on going, according to a Forum Research telephone survey. FRED CHARTRAND / THE CANADIAN PRESS
SHAREADJUSTCOMMENTPRINT
A telephone survey of more than 1,500 Canadian voters has concluded that we would do it again — and then some.
Vote Liberal, that is. A random sampling of 1,517 Canadians over the age 18 by Forum Research found that 52 per cent would vote Liberal if an election were held today, enough to create a Liberal “supermajority” in the House of Commons, stealing almost all of the NDP seats and a few from the Tories.
“The Liberals started with a honeymoon. At this point, not only is the honeymoon still on, but the Liberals are still gaining,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.
If the poll results were projected to the House of Commons, the Liberals would take three-quarters of the seats — 261, compared to the 184 they won in the federal election last October — while the Conservatives would have 69 seats compared to the 98 they currently hold. The NDP would hold just seven seats, according to the survey. They won 44 last fall. The Green party would retain Leader Elizabeth May’s seat.
The Liberals won 40 per cent of the vote in October, but Forum Research’s polls in November showed that support shot up to 55 per cent. That’s not unusual for a winning party after an election, said Bozinoff. After that, support dropped to the 40s. But in March, support for the Liberals nudged up to 51 per cent and rose to 52 per cent in the most recent survey, conducted on April 10 and 11.
Of those who voted NDP in the October election, 40 per cent would vote Liberal today, while 14 per cent of those who voted Conservative would cast a ballot for the Liberals.
“The Liberals have out-NDPed the NDP on deficit spending and infrastructure spending. Mulcair has been missing in action in terms of leadership,” said Bozinoff. “The Liberals have done what they said they would do. They delivered the NDP’s agenda.”
The poll found that the Liberals lead or are tied everywhere but Alberta, where the Conservatives lead by 52 per cent compared to 42 per cent for the Liberals.
Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau’s vote share and his approvals remain “improbably high”.
The poll found that Trudeau has the approval of 57 per cent of voters and his “net favorability rating” — approvals minus disapprovals — is a very positive +24. Trudeau draws the approval of almost half of NDP supporters and 12 per cent of Conservatives. Among Liberals, his approval is 91 per cent.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, who said last week that he expects to be replaced as NDP leader within a year, has seen his approval increase from 32 per cent last month to 36 per cent, and his net score increased from -4 to +5.
More than a third of Liberals and almost a quarter of Conservatives approve of him. Mulcair outperforms his party right now, which is a worrisome signal for the NDP, said Bozinoff.
Interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose has the approval of 31 per cent of voters, and her net score is a relatively neutral +5 — but that’s because 42 per cent of those polled said they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. She has the approval of 57 per cent of Conservative supporters.
“We have two parties without permanent leaders. On that situation, it’s hard for a party to get traction,” said Bozinoff. “The Liberals seem to be delivering on a lot of their promises. As long as the Liberals are seen to be doing things, they’ll keep their forward momentum.”
The telephone poll was conducted using interactive voice response, known as “robocalls.” Results based on the total sample are considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
