NWBO: Once In A Decade Best Stock Investment -- Regulatory Approvals Coming! [Dec10, 2022 在第一页加了中文简述]

Dr. Kathryn Nevel talks with Dr. Linda Liau about the use of autologous tumor lysate-loaded dendritic cell vaccination for the treatment of newly diagnosed and recurrent glioblastoma. Read the related article in JAMA Oncology: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama... In the talk, she hopes that it will be FDA approved, and pending future trials to become SOC.

 
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Transcript of the above video by froggmister


Re: None

Thursday, March 02, 2023 9:38:47 PM

Dr. Linda Liau joins Kate Neville on Neurology Journal Podcast, Mar 2, 2023

0:27
Dr. Nevel: Hi, my name is Kate Nevel and I'm a neuro-oncologist at Indiana University and today I'm delighted to be talking to Linda Liau, professor and chair of the Department of Neurosurgery at UCLA, about her recent study and publication “Association of Autologous Tumor Lysate-loaded Dendritic Cell Vaccination with Extension of Survival Among Patients with Newly Diagnosed and Recurrent Glioblastoma,” a phase 3 prospective externally controlled cohort trial published in JAMA Oncology in November of 2022. Dr Liau, thank you so much for being here today and talking with me.

Dr. Liau: Thank you for having me.

Dr. Nevel: So I remember when this paper was published because the neuro-oncology community was at a national meeting and you know kind of wondering what this would mean, and we'll get to the details later, but since this paper has been published I've have had patients calling emailing me asking me about DCVax-L. So for our listeners out there what's the most important thing you think clinicians should tell patients when they call asking about this study?

Dr. Liau: This was a phase three non-randomized prospective cohort trial of autologous vaccine for brain cancer that has shown some promising results. However it is not yet FDA approved so it is not currently available in the U.S outside of clinical trials. And you know further clinical trials are ongoing using this agent.

Dr. Nevel: I think in order to better understand the results of the study, which we'll get to, we first need to go over some of the methods and design and how you analyze the results. So do you mind giving us some background on that [?]

[apparently the following should be Dr. Liau's answer:]

the study was initially designed as a phase 3 double-blinded randomized controlled trial with the crossover arm. However as the trial is underway we began to realize that because of the crossover arm, eventually about 90 percent of all patients received DCVax either at new diagnosis or at presumed recurrence. There are actually several patients that you know subsequently were probably found to have pseudoprogression, so in the end it was depletion of the placebo control arm. Therefore before the trial was ever unblinded a prospective Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP) was designed to compare overall survival in the newly diagnosed cohort and the recurrent glioblastoma cohort of patients who are treated with DCVax with contemporaneous match external control populations from control groups of other formal randomized clinical trials. Because of the crossover arm what we essentially we had were two groups of patients, one who got DCVax early, at new diagnosis, and one who got DCVax at first recurrence. Those were kind of the two populations were left with with this trial, and that's why it was controlled to external controls. So yes it's not a randomized controlled trial but that is the background of the methods of the study. The comparator trials were chosen based on predetermined criteria and a broad ??? [literature search] was conducted using these criteria, which included contemporaneous study time period, a similar KPS and age groups, reported outcomes with overall survival, and you know various other criteria that are listed in the paper. So based on that there were five newly diagnosed studies that were chosen for the comparator population and ten recurrent glioblastoma studies that were chosen for the comparative population for that group, and then our statisticians did an internal validation using various specificity and sensitivity analysis. So overall that was the methodology of the study and you know I'm aware of the limitations of using external control populations, but given the conduct of the trial and the depletion of the placebo arm we felt that this was a comparison that made sense, and with its known limitations.

4:47
Dr. Nevel: I think that brings up an interesting topic that maybe is beyond the discussion for today about using these externally controlled cohort populations in cancer research specifically because of some of the the reasons that you mentioned, that the ethics behind not offering an intervention or ability to cross over for patients with cancer especially patients with incurable cancers.

5:13
Dr. Liau: Yeah, correct. And at the time of the trial initiation it was actually quite difficult to get patients to enroll because patients don't want to be on the placebo arm and so the crossover arm was placed to allow for that option, but retrospect the comparators were for this trial

Dr. Nevel: With that could you please review the most important results of your study

Dr. Liau: I think the most important results of the study are that patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma receiving DCVax had a median overall survival of 22.4 months from the time of surgery, 19 months from the time of randomization, and the patients with recurrent GBM had a median overall survival of 13.2 months. And these survival statistics compared favorably with that of the external control populations from over 1300 newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients and 640 recurrent glioblastoma patients from various other published clinical trials. But what I think maybe even more interesting is the long tail end of the survival curve and some of the subgroup analysis results that came out of the trial. For instance the median survival of the MGMT methylated patients was over 30 months, with almost 20 percent five-year survival. It was interesting in that the majority of these patients surviving over five years are surviving without recurrence, which in the field of glioblastoma is actually quite unusual. So I think it does give us some information in aide in terms of how to design future clinical trials and perhaps how to stratify patients for immunotherapy trials and potential biomarkers.

6:54
Dr. Nevel: I found that particularly interesting to the different subgroup analyses and the MGMT group specifically, which we know in general is a subgroup of patients with glioblastoma who in general we expect to live longer and have longer progression-free survival than patients who do not have MGMT promoter methylation present or having what we call an unmethylated MGMT status. Sometimes but obviously more of a benefit you found in your study in that group of patients who received DCVax-L but I was curious if you had hypothesized a mechanism of or physiologic you know kind of pharmaceutical reason why the vaccine might work better for patients who had MGMT methylated tumors?

7:48
Dr. Liau: DCVax-L is an autologous dendritic cell-based vaccine that consists of a combination of a patient's bone dendritic cells which are antigen presenting cells that are cultured from blood cells from the patient's blood and then we put that in combination with a tumor lysate from the patient's tumor that is taken at the time of surgery and the concept is that the dendritic cell or antigen presenting cell is able to phagocytize and process tumor antigens from the tumor and then the cell combination is injected back into patients to activate endogenous T-cells and we have shown from previous pre-clinical and early clinical trials that the use of dendritic cell vaccination with autologous tumor lysates does induce proliferation or infiltration of T cells into brain tumors, which which we think is the initial first step for induction of an immune response in these brain cancer patients. One problem with immunotherapy for glioblastoma is that glioblastomas tend to be immunologically cold – there are no T cells in the tumor, so that's why a lot of these checkpoint Inhibitors and other immunomodulators don't work as a single agent. So by activating the immune response using a vaccine, we're hoping that getting the T cells into the tumor will allow for kind of that initiation of immunotherapeutic response

9:25
Dr. Nevel: Interesting. I guess this would probably be a good time to, if you don't mind, just in really kind of basic terms explain what exactly the DCVax-L is and how it works.

Dr. Liau: DCVax is a dendritic cell vaccine and the L stands for lysate, so the dendritic cells are antigen presenting cells. They're actually normal antigen presenting cells in the body but we've developed a way to actually grow them in large quantities outside of the body, taken from a progenitor blood cells, and these antigen presenting cells are then co-cultured with tumor lysate from the patients tumors; the concept behind that is because of the relative immune privilege of the brain, the dendritic cells circulating around do not typically encounter tumor antigens within the brain, so this is just a way to basically get the dendritic cells together with the tumor antigens and then that itself is a vaccine that's injected back into patients to activate the endogenous T cells. And it's the activated T cells that traffic and migrate into the tumors to initiate an immune response. We have found in our previous pre-clinical and early clinical studies that is something that DCVax can do is, it does induce the trafficking of T cells into brain tumors.

10:53
Dr. Nevel: So we were talking earlier obviously about the methods and design of the study and the externally controlled cohort, and we talked about that as one of the potential limitations of the study. In addition to that, any other limitations or challenges that you encountered conducting this study?

Dr. Liau: The patients treated with DCVax in the study were compared with the control arms of contemporaneous matched external controls who receive standard of care alone. To mitigate some of the limitations using external controls we did use a novel methodology to neural oncology called a MAIC analysis, which stands for Matching Adjusted Indirect Comparison Analysis, which matched patient characteristics between the trials as best we could at the population level. However, we were unable to obtain individual patient level data from the previously published comparator trials so we're not able to do individual patient matching which we are all aware is a current limitation with the use of external controls, so I'm actually hoping that our publication and the discussions around, it will spur the sponsors of these clinical trials to publicly release their individual patient data so that we as a field can further innovate and get regulatory interest in the use of external control arms in neurology and oncology trials. Because for patients with a deadly disease [diagnosis] I think there's less and less interest in being the placebo control arm for large randomized controlled trials, especially since the data of standard of care is actually pretty well known from trials that we've done over the past 10 to 15 years.

12:43
Dr. Bevel: On that note for the individual patient data how detailed would the data be?

Dr. Liau: I think even things that contain the typical prognostic indicators – age, extent
of resection, MT methylation, doesn't necessarily need to be terribly complex because quite frankly we actually don't have very many prognostic indicators in the glioblastoma field, but I think it'll open up a way to really get patient level data, and I think the FDA is becoming more open to the use of external controls as the comparator arm for large clinical trials.

13:19
Dr. Bevel: So how do you foresee these results potentially impacting patient care in the future?

Dr. Liau: I think for next steps for the DCVax-L, based on what we've learned about the mechanisms of action and the potential biomarkers of response, we are currently conducting additional studies to look at the combinations of DC vaccines with various immune checkpoint
inhibitors and immune modulators so it can help to further enhance the efficacy, because even though there does seem to be a signal of efficacy with almost 20 percent five-year survival rate, that still means 75 to 80 percent of people aren't living five years, so I think we as a field need to do better. I think there's not going to be a one magic bullet that cures glioblastoma, but having different options available to patients for real world studies of rationalized personalized immunotherapy I think would be useful for the field. So given the very favorable toxicity profile for DCVax and its potential efficacy, I do hope that it can be FDA approved someday and incorporated into testing various combinations, if not the standard of care in the future if these subsequent trials pan out.

Dr: Bevel: So on that note, do you foresee DCVax-L being in a combination randomized controlled trial study looking at DCVax-L with a different agent or another study with temozolomide in a randomized controlled trial setting?

14:53
Dr. Liau: You know one problem with a lot of randomized controlled trials is that it itself is also artificial compared to the real world use of a lot of our therapy. So whether I foresee another randomized controlled trial, I think it depends on the sponsor of the trial, but I think if we are able to get these options out to the community for testing, I'm hoping that there will be greater data that we can generate, because I think one of the problems we have with a lot of these clinical trials of single agents is that without access to the agents it's hard for people to do these combination studies. So I'm hoping that there will be innovation in the field in terms of how we can best move some treatments forward, given the current regulatory as well as clinical trial environment, that kind of limits how we do larger trials with combination therapies.

Dr. Bevel: So patients sometimes, especially since the publication of your paper, they call in [and ask], and this is not an FDA approved therapy, but how can they access DCVax-L right now? Is that information you can share with us? Could you talk to that a little bit?

16:11
Dr. Liau: DCVax is currently available for compassionate use in the UK; it was approved by the MHRA for that purpose. It's not yet FDA approved and I think in terms of access to treatments there's the balance between access and also getting more data and validation of efficacy, and I hope there will be a way in the future to be able to do both – to be able to allow patients access to treatments and then I have the neuro-oncology community continue to test agents and come up with innovative trials to prove or disprove efficacy. One problem is that unless you can get access to the agent it's very difficult to do that, so perhaps a way to open access to DCVax before continued testing would be beneficial to the field.

17:09
Dr. Bevel: Absolutely, and speaking just on a broader scope, patient access to medications is such a big issue in many fields of medicine, cancer care included. With insurance and approvals let alone access to things that are not approved for compassionate use, or experimental trial use. It's a challenge. But I appreciate your comments and you being so candid about it.

Dr. Liau: A lot of patients now in the neuro-oncology community, they're just taking a lot of different off-label drugs that have even less proof of efficacy for glioblastoma, but it's FDA approved for another indication and they want to try it, and neuro oncologists are giving it. I guess my hope for DCVax is that maybe it could be accessible so that we can do these studies and allow patients the right to try.

18:05
Dr. Bevel: Thank you so much Linda for joining me and answering my many questions and the dialogue about your study of DCVax-L and the challenges surrounding cancer clinical trial design. I really appreciated our conversation today.

Dr. Liau: Thank you thank you for having me.
 
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About 11million loan by Mr. john fife of the streeterville capital llc who has previously provided loan for NWBO as well [the fact that this loan is secured before the long anticipated MIA news shall be duely appreciated].

NORTHWEST BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC (Form: 8-K, Received: 03/08/2023 16:57:18)


On March 2, 2023, Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Commercial Loan Agreement and Note (collectively, the “Loan Agreement”) with Streeterville Capital, LLC (the “Holder”) in the amount of $11,005,000. The Loan Agreement has a maturity of 22 months. Repayments do not start until November 2, 2023.


Following November 2, 2023, the Loan Agreement will be amortized in 14 equal monthly installments of principal at 110% of the pro rata amount, plus accrued interest. Interest on the Loan Agreement accrues at a rate of 8% per annum, and the Loan Agreement includes an original issue discount of ten percent. The Loan Agreement allows pre-payment at any time at the Company’s election. If the Company elects to pre-pay, the pre-payment would include a 10% charge. The Loan Agreement contains customary default provisions, including for potential acceleration.


The proceeds will be used for further buildout of the Sawston facility, and ongoing expanded activities related to preparation of an application for product approval, in addition to regular company operations.
 
NWBO is about time to be acquired (at least after first regulatory approval).
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ACER fell sharply today. Any comments? Thanks.
My 2 cents: when I first looked at the company, my impressions are 1) the potential market for its only approved product is very limited with heavy competition from those who have already in the market for years; 2) its product is basically the same as 1/2 of the existing ones, only difference is in its formulation of acting drug. So at that time, I personally did not want to get involved. Assuming capital is adequate, it takes time to materialize. More importantly I didn't estimate how much capital it needs in order to put that product into market.

Also I have had some similar investments which though I made some money but excitement went down as things didn't pan out as initially expected. Two example comes to my mind: PATH which was a patch for migraine pain, about one year after the patch got approved by FDA, the company was bought out by an Israeli company in a low-ball offer. Another is DSCO (Discovery Laboratories) which got its product surfaxin approved by FDA for respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) in premature infants (first it got a CRL from FDA for manufacturing and chemical reasons, after 1 or 2 years, it finally got approved). Also because the market for its 1st approved product is also small, and competition from the existing drugs is fierce, and its other much more higher potential drug for much bigger market didn't pan out as expected. I lost interest and sold all with some profits.

Now back to ACER, I just quickly looked at its pipelines and recent news. First is its ACER-801 trial for VMS basically failed. And the future of its other trials will depend on the availability of funding, despite the statement in its approval news stating otherwise, " OLPRUVA’s™ approval triggers the availability of a $42.5 million term loan to Acer under the previously announced March 2022 loan agreement the Company entered into with affiliates of Marathon Asset Management L.P. If Acer requests and receives the loan proceeds, management believes it will have sufficient resources to fund current operations into H2 2023."

The question is, has this loan term been changed? So the loan is now limited or unavailable? [some investors said this loan has been used up already] Or are the preparation for the marketing launch of OLPRUVA and continuing the trials short of cash?

One last thing comes to my mind now is I remember before its product OLORUVA got approved it seemed as if this stock had has no bears and it got universal support from the market, which was strange for a tiny biotech company. Now it seems maybe the short just want to short it at higher price. And today's general market sentiment and situation are unfavorable to the whole biotech market as well.

GL

[In terms of price, in today's environment, particularly after SIVB crashed (SIVB was the best choice for life science company to get finance), there is huge new pressure pressed on all biotech stocks, particularly the small biotech companies. The short seems to have had their days now. So the market may well have overreacted, plus manipulated. For ACER, if the company can give a clear direction on its market effort and potential, as well as the timeline for the launch of the product, and the company can assure the market it has enough funding for its trials, particularly its ongoing P3 trial, then there may be a recovering in the horizon. But, the big if is will the short relent because the ultimate goal of the short is to bankrupt the underlining company.

Only thing can change the bearish sentiment once for all is for the company to show it can make money by selling its product though the market is small. That will be months, or even a year away if it pans out]
 
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ACER with market cap of around only $33 million with a peak sale of OLORUVA in around $150 millions and above (its partner will slit about 40% of revenue?). With that low ball peak sale, the company can still get $90 million in peak sale, conservatively use multiple of 2 to estimate the company, the company should at least have a mc around $180 million. Discount heavy cost it will inflict from marketing and development of other drugs in pipeline, plus obviuosly it's now under heavy pressure from the short in an unfavorable market condition, the company should be still worthy of a lot more than the current $33 millions.

How the company will finance its business deserves attention, so will its prospect of being forced out of Nasdaq if its price still trade below 1$ for a while.

Despite all the above, I may consider putting some capital in the stock starting next week, and more if its financial prospect becomes clearer.
 
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Thank you so much for your detailed analysis. I did not pay attention to the market sentiment for bio-stocks. I will load some ACER next week. Wish you will be dearly rewarded by holding NWBO for so long.
 
Thank you so much for your detailed analysis. I did not pay attention to the market sentiment for bio-stocks. I will load some ACER next week. Wish you will be dearly rewarded by holding NWBO for so long.
Thank you for your good wishes. NWBO is my forever stock.

The MOA of DCVax suggests it can easily apply to all types of solid tumors, not only brain tumor:

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The prospect of DCVax in combination trials aiming to cure cancers is huge as the diagram shows below:
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There have been at least dozens of long-term survival patients in the main body of DCVax trials and the compassion treatments of those patients who are excluding from the main trials, indicating a big percentage of patients may be managed the same way as that for patients with chronic disease so that deadly cancers would become manageable chronic diseases, which is unheard of for a disease with which median survival is only about a year and a half, and five-year survival is only about 5%.

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