如果说群体免疫作为一种现象是科学现象. 在没有竭尽全力抗击疫情时就追求群体免疫, 则是愚蠢和冷血
- 主题发起人 贵圈
- 开始时间
lfe634
灰體輻射
- 注册
- 2011-10-07
- 消息
- 6,105
- 荣誉分数
- 3,501
- 声望点数
- 373
最嚴的控制就是現在吧，大不了就再全省、全國停工幾個月。
基礎產業持續，有救濟金拿，我想在主觀上都控制得了，只是由奢入儉難，不患寡而患不均這些。人類在求生存方面還是很厲害的。
客觀上的控制，疫苗預計是一年半。據說有五條科技 (減毒、轉基因等) 在同時進行。
在那之前，大概就是看情況停工、復工，控制在醫療系統的上限附近，視各地區的資源與年齡人口組成不同。
有一種擔心是病毒同時感染很多人，很多地區，會造成基因上的多元性，比如北美第三型可以再感染武漢已經痊癒的。
所以從單一地區看，可能對某一種亞型產生群體免疫，但是從海外一波波帶進來，實質上不出現全國都免疫的情況。
所以國際間、國內的交通應該會減少。
- 注册
- 2005-11-23
- 消息
- 30,365
- 荣誉分数
- 7,477
- 声望点数
- 373
这是一个月以前的旧闻了。
APRIL 1, 2020 / 6:41 AM / A MONTH AGO
Preliminary study finds UK lockdown is slowing spread of COVID-19
Kate Kelland
LONDON (Reuters) - Lockdown and social distancing measures introduced by the British government to slow the spread of COVID-19 may already be working, according to preliminary research findings, and could soon see Britain’s epidemic of infections declining.
Scientists used an online survey to ask 1,300 people in Britain to list their contacts for the previous day - and found that the average number of contacts now is more than 70% lower than before the lockdown.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-reagent-shortage-pms-spokesman-idUSKBN21J5IX
“If we see similar changes across the UK population, we would expect to see the epidemic to start to decline,” said John Edmunds, who led the study at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
He added, however, that the findings were very preliminary and should not be seen as suggesting “job done”.
“Rather, they should be used as motivation for us all to keep following UK government instructions,” Edmunds said. “It’s imperative we don’t take our foot off the pedal. We must continue to stop transmission of the virus to reduce the burden on the National Health Service now and over the coming months.”
Like many other countries affected by the pandemic of disease caused by the new coronavirus, Britain has imposed strict social distancing measures including shop and school closures. Authorities are also asking everyone to stay at home except for essential travel.
ADVERTISEMENT
REPRODUCTION NUMBER
The research, which was not peer-reviewed but was posted on LSHTM’S Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases website, looked at a key feature of infectious disease epidemics known as the reproduction number, sometimes called the R0, or ‘R nought’.
This describes the number of people, on average, who will catch a disease from a single infected person. If that number can be brought down to below 1.0, this signals that an epidemic will decline.
Using the change in contact patterns, the Edmunds’ team calculated a change in reproduction number between the pre-lockdown and post lockdown periods.
The finding that the mean number of contacts per person measured is more than 70% lower now than before the lockdown suggests that the R0 reproduction value now would be between 0.37 and 0.89, they said, with the most likely value being 0.62.
Independent experts not directly involved in the research said its findings were useful and encouraging.
“Given the flattening in new cases and that we have some measures in place now for over two weeks and a type of lockdown for over one week, their conclusion that R0 may be below 1 is credible,” said Keith Neal, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Nottingham University.
Jennifer Cole, a biological anthropologist at Royal Holloway University of London, added: “It is also valuable that this study shows that R0 can be reduced significantly even when people are still allowed to go out for essential food and medicines and with essential workers still operating.”
www.reuters.com
APRIL 1, 2020 / 6:41 AM / A MONTH AGO
Preliminary study finds UK lockdown is slowing spread of COVID-19
Kate Kelland
LONDON (Reuters) - Lockdown and social distancing measures introduced by the British government to slow the spread of COVID-19 may already be working, according to preliminary research findings, and could soon see Britain’s epidemic of infections declining.
Scientists used an online survey to ask 1,300 people in Britain to list their contacts for the previous day - and found that the average number of contacts now is more than 70% lower than before the lockdown.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-reagent-shortage-pms-spokesman-idUSKBN21J5IX
“If we see similar changes across the UK population, we would expect to see the epidemic to start to decline,” said John Edmunds, who led the study at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
He added, however, that the findings were very preliminary and should not be seen as suggesting “job done”.
“Rather, they should be used as motivation for us all to keep following UK government instructions,” Edmunds said. “It’s imperative we don’t take our foot off the pedal. We must continue to stop transmission of the virus to reduce the burden on the National Health Service now and over the coming months.”
Like many other countries affected by the pandemic of disease caused by the new coronavirus, Britain has imposed strict social distancing measures including shop and school closures. Authorities are also asking everyone to stay at home except for essential travel.
ADVERTISEMENT
REPRODUCTION NUMBER
The research, which was not peer-reviewed but was posted on LSHTM’S Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases website, looked at a key feature of infectious disease epidemics known as the reproduction number, sometimes called the R0, or ‘R nought’.
This describes the number of people, on average, who will catch a disease from a single infected person. If that number can be brought down to below 1.0, this signals that an epidemic will decline.
Using the change in contact patterns, the Edmunds’ team calculated a change in reproduction number between the pre-lockdown and post lockdown periods.
The finding that the mean number of contacts per person measured is more than 70% lower now than before the lockdown suggests that the R0 reproduction value now would be between 0.37 and 0.89, they said, with the most likely value being 0.62.
Independent experts not directly involved in the research said its findings were useful and encouraging.
“Given the flattening in new cases and that we have some measures in place now for over two weeks and a type of lockdown for over one week, their conclusion that R0 may be below 1 is credible,” said Keith Neal, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Nottingham University.
Jennifer Cole, a biological anthropologist at Royal Holloway University of London, added: “It is also valuable that this study shows that R0 can be reduced significantly even when people are still allowed to go out for essential food and medicines and with essential workers still operating.”
Preliminary study finds UK lockdown is slowing spread of COVID-19
Lockdown and social distancing measures introduced by the British government to slow the spread of COVID-19 may already be working, according to preliminary research findings, and could soon see Britain's epidemic of infections declining.
