刚才做了一下算数题，统计了一下中国的新冠感染病例，得出了一个结论
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我觉得任何国家的数据都有问题，首要的因素决定于测试数量，如果不测，肯定无法得到真实确诊人数。这病毒重症率，死亡率不算高，即使完全不测试，也一样可以瞒天过海。如果你问我的判断，中国的数据和所有国家一样，都可能有很大的偏差，但是任何人没有证据是没法用其他方法来推断的。
我可以给你举两个事例。
1.你说加拿大的数据可信，只以3月11日为例，现在Public Health Ottawa （PHO)渥太华的确诊数是59，安省是42，加拿大是118.也就是说，渥太华的病例比安省多17个。如果你问我相信哪个？我没法回答，我没有任何证据怀疑渥太华的数据，那么起码安省的数据不应当小于渥太华的数，我也没法推算安省的数据应当是多少，乘上一个系数：10，20，100？
渥太华处理数据有两种不同的方法，CTV和其他很多网站相同，每天新的确诊病例计入当天的新增病例中，Public Health采取Cumulative epidemiological curve of Ottawa residents with confirmed COVID-19, by the EARLIEST of onset date, test and reported date，简单地说就是每天新增病例会分别加入在以前的N天（N可能等于30-80）。起结果就是，当我们所有市民，包括CTV等网站上公布的数据与Public Health有很大的出入。
渥太华正式对外公布的第一例确诊病例，从奥地利滑雪回来的欧洲输入型日期是3月11日。可以从CTV的图上读到，3月11日的数据为1.在PHO的数据上现在是59，官方公布的数据：安省是42，全加拿大公布的确诊病例是：118，即当时渥太华正好占加拿大的一半，甚至高于整个安省的数据。从3月25日开始观察开始，可以忽略那个等于1的glitch,那天大概是出现了意外误差。
这里可以查到加拿大和各省的数据：
COVID-19: Current situation - Canada.ca
Information for Canadians on COVID-19 (coronavirus) including current cases, risk, monitoring, COVID-19 variants and how to get updates.
2. 这个是Pueyo 3月很长文章的节选。这是他文章最重要的图，灰色柱是根据各种模型计算出的真实数据，黄色柱是官方公布的数据，所有国家都一样，没法得到真实的数据，当真实数据在封城后一天立即就下降了，但是官方公布数据的高峰在12天之后才出现。
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
This is one of the most important charts.
It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.
The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.
The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.
Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.
Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.
This concept of official and true cases is important. Let’s keep it in mind for later.
flapjack_monkey
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我是直接Google 的。把想要问的问题直接输入Google 的搜索栏，大部分时间会找到你想要的答案。又快又简单，你可以去试试看。Google的信誉度蛮好的。
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嗯，平行世界，真的是活到老学到老。坦率地说，现在觉得一开始掺乎进来就错了，不过不掺乎就永远不知道平行世界这么近。
我觉得任何国家的数据都有问题，首要的因素决定于测试数量，如果不测，肯定无法得到真实确诊人数。这病毒重症率，死亡率不算高，即使完全不测试，也一样可以瞒天过海。如果你问我的判断，中国的数据和所有国家一样，都可能有很大的偏差，但是任何人没有证据是没法用其他方法来推断的。
我可以给你举两个事例。
1.你说加拿大的数据可信，只以3月11日为例，现在Public Health Ottawa （PHO)渥太华的确诊数是59，安省是42，加拿大是118.也就是说，渥太华的病例比安省多17个。如果你问我相信哪个？我没法回答，我没有任何证据怀疑渥太华的数据，那么起码安省的数据不应当小于渥太华的数，我也没法推算安省的数据应当是多少，乘上一个系数：10，20，100？
渥太华处理数据有两种不同的方法，CTV和其他很多网站相同，每天新的确诊病例计入当天的新增病例中，Public Health采取Cumulative epidemiological curve of Ottawa residents with confirmed COVID-19, by the EARLIEST of onset date, test and reported date，简单地说就是每天新增病例会分别加入在以前的N天（N可能等于30-80）。起结果就是，当我们所有市民，包括CTV等网站上公布的数据与Public Health有很大的出入。
渥太华正式对外公布的第一例确诊病例，从奥地利滑雪回来的欧洲输入型日期是3月11日。可以从CTV的图上读到，3月11日的数据为1.在PHO的数据上现在是59，官方公布的数据：安省是42，全加拿大公布的确诊病例是：118，即当时渥太华正好占加拿大的一半，甚至高于整个安省的数据。从3月25日开始观察开始，可以忽略那个等于1的glitch,那天大概是出现了意外误差。
浏览附件898913
这里可以查到加拿大和各省的数据：
COVID-19: Current situation - Canada.ca
Information for Canadians on COVID-19 (coronavirus) including current cases, risk, monitoring, COVID-19 variants and how to get updates.www.canada.ca
2. 这个是Pueyo 3月很长文章的节选。这是他文章最重要的图，灰色柱是根据各种模型计算出的真实数据，黄色柱是官方公布的数据，所有国家都一样，没法得到真实的数据，当真实数据在封城后一天立即就下降了，但是官方公布数据的高峰在12天之后才出现。
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
浏览附件898908
This is one of the most important charts.
It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.
The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.
The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.
Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.
Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.
This concept of official and true cases is important. Let’s keep it in mind for later.
你说的非常对。
就是应该每一个人都做测试。这个病毒传播的范围太广了，虽然病死率没有SARS高，但是如果是隐形携带者，再传给别人，遇到老弱体虚的，可能就是致命的。我们也并不知道自己是不是就是安全的，说不定我们自己就是无症状感染者也说不定。所以，必须，每一个人都做测试。
还有，这个测试盒，可不能用中国的，听说中国制造的测试盒，准确率还不到50%，用那样不合格的测试盒，肯定会有很多的真正感染者，被漏诊。
得用我们加拿大自己研发出来的那个测试盒，听说准确率100%。
关于Public Health 的更新，确实是不快，经常是今天看昨天的数据。可能就是为了避免你说的那种数据重叠混乱的现象吧，总的来说，还是很透明，很让人满意的。
我倒不觉得是恶意投毒，我觉得有可能是不小心泄露了。
这个咨询是我的朋友圈中传递的。你这是在黑加拿大么？咨询太过时啦，去多看看英文论坛吧
