瑞典到底是不是达到了herdImmunity?兼谈美国加拿大

“感染数据第一峰低于第二峰,死亡数据大约滞后20天,第二峰低于第一峰,说明致死率有所降低,治愈率提高了。 ”

正相关?
 
“感染数据第一峰低于第二峰,死亡数据大约滞后20天,第二峰低于第一峰,说明致死率有所降低,治愈率提高了。 ”

正相关?
 
1598903833417.png

讲点中学数学,正弦滞后余弦90度,他们不是负相关,也不是什么“分道扬镳”。在局部比如第一,第三象限他们呈负相关。

但是现实的数据不是理想的正弦曲线,峰值高低不同,这在前面也多次说明了。
1598904051327.png

正切和余切是完全的负相关。在任何地方都是。
 
最后编辑:
再补充一条。

18 min ago
White House Task Force member calls report about herd immunity “irresponsible”
From CNN's Pamela Kirkland and Jeremy Diamond


Dr. Scott Atlas listens as President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington on August 13.

Dr. Scott Atlas listens as President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington on August 13. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

White House Coronavirus Task Force member, Dr. Scott Atlas, responded to a report by the Washington Post on Monday claiming he is a proponent of a controversial herd immunity strategy to combat Covid-19. The strategy would allow for the virus to spread through the US population in order to develop a resistance to it.
“That was never a strategy that was advocated by me and the administration. The president does not have a strategy like that. I’ve never advocated that strategy. That whole discussion in the Washington Post was just really, sort of irresponsible,” Atlas said, speaking at a press conference with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday.
Some background: Herd immunity is reached when 70% to 90% of a population becomes immune to a disease either through infection and recovery or vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune because there just aren't enough infectious carriers to reach them. The Washington Post article claimed Atlas was the chief proponent of the herd immunity strategy.

Atlas has explicitly denied that he is pushing a herd immunity strategy, but an administration official said all of the policies Atlas has pushed for are in the vein of a herd immunity strategy.

Atlas has rejected the need for widespread community testing, arguing that the administration should focus almost exclusively on protecting and testing elderly populations while pushing for the rest of the economy to return to normal, this official said.

"Everything he says and does points toward herd immunity," the senior administration official said.

CNN has reported that several of the health professionals on the White House Coronavirus Task Force raised questions about Atlas, asking each other who he was and what his role would be. Atlas joined the task force earlier this month as an adviser.
 
57 min ago

ER doctor says 2 million Americans could die in effort to achieve Covid-19 herd immunity
From CNN's Lauren Mascarenhas, Faith Karimi and Jay Croft

Emergency physician and CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen said Monday that 2 million Americans could die in the effort to achieve herd immunity to coronavirus.

“If we're waiting until 60% to 80% of people have it, we're talking about 200 million plus Americans getting this,” Wen told CNN’s Brianna Keilar Monday.
“At a fatality rate of 1%, let’s say … that's 2 million Americans who will die in this effort to try to get herd immunity. Those are preventable deaths of our loved ones that we can just not let happen under our watch,” Wen said.

Wen added that much is still unknown about how long immunity to Covid-19 could last.

Remember: Herd immunity is reached when a majority of a population becomes immune to a disease either through infection and recovery or vaccination.
When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune because there just aren't enough infectious carriers to reach them.

Earlier this month, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also explained the risks of herd immunity during a live Instagram session.

"If everyone contracted it, even with the relatively high percentage of people without symptoms ... a lot of people are going to die," Fauci said.
 
不用操心美国了,人家已经群体免疫了,倒是我们加拿大还需要继续坚守。加拿大加油:jiayou:
 
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明显分道扬镳了,但是肯定不是负相关。
 
你啊,看看图形,五月份感染和死亡,对比现在的感染和死亡。

简直就是太明显不过了。

现在感染数字是五月份的400%。
现在的死亡数字是五月份的80%左右。

简直是分道扬镳的不能再分了。
 
接受现实吧。covid的杀人能力在此消彼长中,逐渐降低,逐渐接近FLU。
 
看看社会群体免疫的瑞典

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1606880873139.png


感染大幅增加,虽然依然比美国要好
死亡重新接近0.
 
再看加拿大,你自己看吧。太多的例子。几乎一致指向了分道扬镳。但当然不是负相关。
 
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