2020年美国选举：众议院选举，民主党获得222席，共和党获210席，佩洛西再次当选众议院议长；参议院选举，形成民主党50：50共和党局面；国会正式认证，拜登以选举人团306票当选总统

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Biden goes on offence in Georgia while Trump targets Midwest

WASHINGTON - One week until Election Day, Joe Biden is going on offence, heading Tuesday to Georgia — which hasn’t backed a Democrat for president sin...

www.thestar.com

 

[ccc]

兔死谁手?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/presidential/

Which states are the closest?

The closest states in this election are mostly clustered in two regions. They are the Midwest (Iowa and Ohio) and in the South and Southwest (Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina). Trump won all of these states in 2016 and needs to win them again to hold on to the presidency.

 

[lindamy]

1. Alabama
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones

Ever since scandal-plagued Roy Moore lost the GOP nomination earlier this year, there hasn't been much that could displace Jones as the most vulnerable senator of the year. Even against Moore, who was facing allegations of sexual assault, the Democrat only barely won a 2017 special election. He's outraising and outspending Republican Tommy Tuberville, and his best path to victory remains turning out Black voters. But that doesn't look like enough to overcome the partisan lean of the state. Trump won Alabama by 28 points, and unlike in some other red states he carried in 2016, where his margins are slipping, he's holding up pretty well in the Yellowhammer State.

2. Colorado
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Cory Gardner

The president Gardner has chosen to put in one of his most recent ads isn't the current occupant of the White House; it's former Democratic President John F. Kennedy. That says a lot about this first-term Republican senator's reelection fight in a state Trump lost by 5 points in 2016 and is likely to lose again this year. Gardner needs ticket-splitters, hence he's touting the bipartisanship of his own work on conservation legislation but he also can't afford to alienate the GOP base. That's a difficult balance to strike, and one that doesn't leave him with much of a path to victory. Democrat John Hickenlooper, meanwhile, has been putting Trump in his ads to tie Gardner to the top of the ticket. The former Democratic governor has faced his own stumbles, but the partisanship of the state during a presidential election year should help him become the next senator from the Centennial State.

3. Arizona
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Martha McSally

This is McSally's second bid for Senate in as many years, and some of the dynamics that hurt her in that 2018 race are at play again this year. The former congresswoman, who was appointed to the open seat after losing last time, is still struggling to simultaneously appeal to Trump supporters and the suburban voters -- especially women -- who dislike him. The difference this year is that Trump is on the ballot with her. Depending on how he does in Arizona, that could give McSally a boost. But with Biden having an edge in several recent polls of the state, Trump could also drag her down. She's facing a well-funded opponent in Democrat Mark Kelly, a NASA astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Kelly led McSally 52% to 42% among registered voters in a Monmouth University poll from mid-October, a widening of his 6-point advantage from the same pollster in September. Underscoring McSally's problem: Nearly half of Arizona voters said she had been too supportive of the President -- and that was even higher among independents -- compared with 38% of voters who said she's given him the right amount of support.

4. Maine
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Susan Collins

The four-term senator is in the toughest fight of her career. And while Republicans hope voters in the state's more conservative 2nd District may be coming home to her in the final stretch, she still faces a daunting path to reelection with the state's use of ranked choice voting. She's trying to hold on to ticket-splitting voters (who do still exist in Maine) while not alienating base voters who think she hasn't been chummy enough with Trump. She hasn't made the same commitment she did in 2016 not to vote for him. But there's no love lost between Collins and the President, who tweeted earlier this month that she's "not worth the work." Democrats, however, are trying to nationalize the contest, eagerly pointing out all the times she's voted with Trump, with Democrat Sara Gideon arguing this race is just as much about Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's fate as leader as it is about Collins. The senator may earn plaudits for being the only Republican to vote against Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court nomination, citing the closeness to the election and the precedent set in 2016, but that probably won't win her back voters who were enraged by her support of Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018.

5. North Carolina
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis

Republicans think they caught a break in North Carolina with Democrat Cal Cunningham's sex scandal, especially if it gives conservatives a reason to vote for Tillis, who has long struggled to consolidate the Republican vote. Senate Leadership Fund has seized on the issue to argue the Army reservist is a hypocrite who lacks the character he's campaigned on. Cunningham has now responded in his own spot saying, "Tillis is desperately attacking my personal life because he doesn't want to talk about his own record." He goes on to tell voters, "It may be my name on the ballot, but it's your health care."
Public polling, at least, seems to bear out Cunningham's bet that voters don't much care about his personal scandal. He led Tillis by 49% to 43% among likely voters in a CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday, with nearly an equal percentage of likely voters saying they disapprove of how each candidate handles himself personally. A Washington Post/ABC News poll from mid-October showed no clear leader, but 71% of registered voters said Cunningham's affair was less important, while 81% said who controls the Senate was more important to them. Carrying that message, however, requires spending, and Cunningham entered the final stretch of the race with a cash-on-hand deficit. But in one of the states most saturated with political advertising, the Senate race may come down to what happens in the presidential contest, which has been consistently close here.

6. Iowa
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst

Both sides acknowledge this race is a coin toss. Trump carried the state by nearly 10 points in 2016. But now Ernst -- the first woman elected to federal office in Iowa -- is in the same boat as many GOP senators who need to convince voters why they deserve a second term, even if Trump doesn't. A recent spot from the National Republican Senatorial Committee makes a checks and balances argument for rejecting Democrat Theresa Greenfield, implying that Senate control would be the last defense against a President Biden and Democratic House.
Ernst burst onto the political scene with her infamous 2014 "make 'em squeal" ad, but she may not have done herself any favors in a recent debate, where she couldn't state the price of soybeans. It's not clear the moment has resonated beyond the headlines, but Republicans are worried that Greenfield -- who talks about being a "farm kid" -- has had a fundraising advantage. (She raised nearly four times as much as Ernst in the first two weeks of October.) A recent New York Times/Siena College poll had Ernst at 45% to Greenfield's 44% and Biden at 46% to Trump's 43% among likely voters -- all within the margin of error. Monmouth's poll from around the same time showed an essentially tied Senate race, as it has for much of the late summer and fall.

7. Georgia
Incumbent: Republican Sen. David Perdue

Biden's trip to Georgia on Tuesday says it all -- the state is in play, and that's making Republicans nervous about holding on to both Senate seats, most immediately Perdue's. The Atlanta suburbs are changing fast, and they're populated with the kinds of well-educated and diverse voters who don't like the President. Perdue has been outraised by Democrat Jon Ossoff, who lost the most expensive House race in history in 2017, and the GOP incumbent is still responding to Democratic attacks about his stock trades. Senate Leadership Fund aired an ad defending Perdue on the issue, an unusual and telling move since super PACs often stick to attacking opponents. A CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday had the race even, with Perdue at 47% to Ossoff's 46% among likely voters, while a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier in the month gave Ossoff a 51% to 45% edge. Getting more than 50% on Election Day is Ossoff's best path to victory. If neither candidate receives a majority, the contest advances to a January runoff, when Democrats might not have the same level of enthusiasm (and the spending) of a presidential race.

8. Montana
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Steve Daines

Another first-term Republican, Daines is facing two-term Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who's proved he can win statewide at the same time Trump carries the state. The President isn't expected to post anywhere near the 21-point margin he did in 2016 (a recent New York Times/Siena College poll gave him just a 6-point lead among likely voters). Which is why, in addition to attacking Bullock as being too liberal, Republicans have turned to a checks and balances argument here: "Imagine Biden, Pelosi and Schumer in charge -- it could happen if Steve Bullock is elected to the Senate," a recent National Republican Senatorial Committee ad says. Montanans are used to splitting their tickets, as Bullock's 2016 reelection, and Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's reelection two years later, showed. Since then, though, Bullock has run for president against Trump. And Republicans hope that with Trump on the ticket, the partisanship of Montana will be too much for Bullock to overcome. The New York Times survey had Daines at 49% and Bullock at 46%, within the margin of error.

9. South Carolina
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham

If there's any Senate race where the Supreme Court vacancy has altered the trajectory, it may be South Carolina, where Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham's visibility during Barrett's confirmation hearings gave him a prominent platform to raise money. Republican outside groups have also come to his rescue, with Senate Leadership Fund spending nearly $16 million in the state. Despite Democrat Jaime Harrison raising a record-breaking $57 million in the third quarter, he may be outspent in the final stretch. Republicans hope that Graham's Judiciary Committee performance will also help him consolidate support among conservatives, who've long viewed him skeptically. Democrats are trying to exploit any lingering gap there, though, with Senate Majority PAC running ads about how Graham has criticized Trump while Harrison props up a third-party candidate as the true conservative. Bill Bledsoe already dropped out and endorsed Graham, but his name is still on the ballot. A New York Times/Siena College poll taken in mid-October (with the final days of interviews overlapping with the confirmation hearings) gave Graham a 6-point lead and Trump an 8-point lead. Democrats will also be closely watching the turnout of Black voters -- a crucial voting bloc to get Harrison across the finish line.

10. Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Gary Peters

Some recent public polling has shown a close race here. A New York Times/Siena College poll from early October, for example, put Peters ahead by just 43% to 42%, well within the margin of error. Republicans think that reflects the strength of their candidate, Iraq War veteran John James, compared with the first-term incumbent. But Democrats aren't buying it, pointing out that Peters outraised James in the pre-general reporting period -- a change from earlier in the year -- and that Biden's edge here should boost the incumbent. A Fox News poll from later in October gave Peters a 49% to 41% lead among likely voters, which is more in line with what one would expect if the Democrats are performing well here at the top of the ticket. Still, given the outside spending from both sides in the Senate race, this contest is worth keeping a close eye on.

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, one week from Election Day

The Senate majority is firmly within Democrats' reach with just a week to go until Election Day.

www.cnn.com

 

[ccc]

1. Alabama
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones

Ever since scandal-plagued Roy Moore lost the GOP nomination earlier this year, there hasn't been much that could displace Jones as the most vulnerable senator of the year. Even against Moore, who was facing allegations of sexual assault, the Democrat only barely won a 2017 special election. He's outraising and outspending Republican Tommy Tuberville, and his best path to victory remains turning out Black voters. But that doesn't look like enough to overcome the partisan lean of the state. Trump won Alabama by 28 points, and unlike in some other red states he carried in 2016, where his margins are slipping, he's holding up pretty well in the Yellowhammer State.

2. Colorado
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Cory Gardner

The president Gardner has chosen to put in one of his most recent ads isn't the current occupant of the White House; it's former Democratic President John F. Kennedy. That says a lot about this first-term Republican senator's reelection fight in a state Trump lost by 5 points in 2016 and is likely to lose again this year. Gardner needs ticket-splitters, hence he's touting the bipartisanship of his own work on conservation legislation but he also can't afford to alienate the GOP base. That's a difficult balance to strike, and one that doesn't leave him with much of a path to victory. Democrat John Hickenlooper, meanwhile, has been putting Trump in his ads to tie Gardner to the top of the ticket. The former Democratic governor has faced his own stumbles, but the partisanship of the state during a presidential election year should help him become the next senator from the Centennial State.

3. Arizona
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Martha McSally

This is McSally's second bid for Senate in as many years, and some of the dynamics that hurt her in that 2018 race are at play again this year. The former congresswoman, who was appointed to the open seat after losing last time, is still struggling to simultaneously appeal to Trump supporters and the suburban voters -- especially women -- who dislike him. The difference this year is that Trump is on the ballot with her. Depending on how he does in Arizona, that could give McSally a boost. But with Biden having an edge in several recent polls of the state, Trump could also drag her down. She's facing a well-funded opponent in Democrat Mark Kelly, a NASA astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Kelly led McSally 52% to 42% among registered voters in a Monmouth University poll from mid-October, a widening of his 6-point advantage from the same pollster in September. Underscoring McSally's problem: Nearly half of Arizona voters said she had been too supportive of the President -- and that was even higher among independents -- compared with 38% of voters who said she's given him the right amount of support.

4. Maine
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Susan Collins

The four-term senator is in the toughest fight of her career. And while Republicans hope voters in the state's more conservative 2nd District may be coming home to her in the final stretch, she still faces a daunting path to reelection with the state's use of ranked choice voting. She's trying to hold on to ticket-splitting voters (who do still exist in Maine) while not alienating base voters who think she hasn't been chummy enough with Trump. She hasn't made the same commitment she did in 2016 not to vote for him. But there's no love lost between Collins and the President, who tweeted earlier this month that she's "not worth the work." Democrats, however, are trying to nationalize the contest, eagerly pointing out all the times she's voted with Trump, with Democrat Sara Gideon arguing this race is just as much about Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's fate as leader as it is about Collins. The senator may earn plaudits for being the only Republican to vote against Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court nomination, citing the closeness to the election and the precedent set in 2016, but that probably won't win her back voters who were enraged by her support of Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018.

5. North Carolina
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis

Republicans think they caught a break in North Carolina with Democrat Cal Cunningham's sex scandal, especially if it gives conservatives a reason to vote for Tillis, who has long struggled to consolidate the Republican vote. Senate Leadership Fund has seized on the issue to argue the Army reservist is a hypocrite who lacks the character he's campaigned on. Cunningham has now responded in his own spot saying, "Tillis is desperately attacking my personal life because he doesn't want to talk about his own record." He goes on to tell voters, "It may be my name on the ballot, but it's your health care."
Public polling, at least, seems to bear out Cunningham's bet that voters don't much care about his personal scandal. He led Tillis by 49% to 43% among likely voters in a CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday, with nearly an equal percentage of likely voters saying they disapprove of how each candidate handles himself personally. A Washington Post/ABC News poll from mid-October showed no clear leader, but 71% of registered voters said Cunningham's affair was less important, while 81% said who controls the Senate was more important to them. Carrying that message, however, requires spending, and Cunningham entered the final stretch of the race with a cash-on-hand deficit. But in one of the states most saturated with political advertising, the Senate race may come down to what happens in the presidential contest, which has been consistently close here.

6. Iowa
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst

Both sides acknowledge this race is a coin toss. Trump carried the state by nearly 10 points in 2016. But now Ernst -- the first woman elected to federal office in Iowa -- is in the same boat as many GOP senators who need to convince voters why they deserve a second term, even if Trump doesn't. A recent spot from the National Republican Senatorial Committee makes a checks and balances argument for rejecting Democrat Theresa Greenfield, implying that Senate control would be the last defense against a President Biden and Democratic House.
Ernst burst onto the political scene with her infamous 2014 "make 'em squeal" ad, but she may not have done herself any favors in a recent debate, where she couldn't state the price of soybeans. It's not clear the moment has resonated beyond the headlines, but Republicans are worried that Greenfield -- who talks about being a "farm kid" -- has had a fundraising advantage. (She raised nearly four times as much as Ernst in the first two weeks of October.) A recent New York Times/Siena College poll had Ernst at 45% to Greenfield's 44% and Biden at 46% to Trump's 43% among likely voters -- all within the margin of error. Monmouth's poll from around the same time showed an essentially tied Senate race, as it has for much of the late summer and fall.

7. Georgia
Incumbent: Republican Sen. David Perdue

Biden's trip to Georgia on Tuesday says it all -- the state is in play, and that's making Republicans nervous about holding on to both Senate seats, most immediately Perdue's. The Atlanta suburbs are changing fast, and they're populated with the kinds of well-educated and diverse voters who don't like the President. Perdue has been outraised by Democrat Jon Ossoff, who lost the most expensive House race in history in 2017, and the GOP incumbent is still responding to Democratic attacks about his stock trades. Senate Leadership Fund aired an ad defending Perdue on the issue, an unusual and telling move since super PACs often stick to attacking opponents. A CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday had the race even, with Perdue at 47% to Ossoff's 46% among likely voters, while a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier in the month gave Ossoff a 51% to 45% edge. Getting more than 50% on Election Day is Ossoff's best path to victory. If neither candidate receives a majority, the contest advances to a January runoff, when Democrats might not have the same level of enthusiasm (and the spending) of a presidential race.

8. Montana
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Steve Daines

Another first-term Republican, Daines is facing two-term Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who's proved he can win statewide at the same time Trump carries the state. The President isn't expected to post anywhere near the 21-point margin he did in 2016 (a recent New York Times/Siena College poll gave him just a 6-point lead among likely voters). Which is why, in addition to attacking Bullock as being too liberal, Republicans have turned to a checks and balances argument here: "Imagine Biden, Pelosi and Schumer in charge -- it could happen if Steve Bullock is elected to the Senate," a recent National Republican Senatorial Committee ad says. Montanans are used to splitting their tickets, as Bullock's 2016 reelection, and Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's reelection two years later, showed. Since then, though, Bullock has run for president against Trump. And Republicans hope that with Trump on the ticket, the partisanship of Montana will be too much for Bullock to overcome. The New York Times survey had Daines at 49% and Bullock at 46%, within the margin of error.

9. South Carolina
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham

If there's any Senate race where the Supreme Court vacancy has altered the trajectory, it may be South Carolina, where Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham's visibility during Barrett's confirmation hearings gave him a prominent platform to raise money. Republican outside groups have also come to his rescue, with Senate Leadership Fund spending nearly $16 million in the state. Despite Democrat Jaime Harrison raising a record-breaking $57 million in the third quarter, he may be outspent in the final stretch. Republicans hope that Graham's Judiciary Committee performance will also help him consolidate support among conservatives, who've long viewed him skeptically. Democrats are trying to exploit any lingering gap there, though, with Senate Majority PAC running ads about how Graham has criticized Trump while Harrison props up a third-party candidate as the true conservative. Bill Bledsoe already dropped out and endorsed Graham, but his name is still on the ballot. A New York Times/Siena College poll taken in mid-October (with the final days of interviews overlapping with the confirmation hearings) gave Graham a 6-point lead and Trump an 8-point lead. Democrats will also be closely watching the turnout of Black voters -- a crucial voting bloc to get Harrison across the finish line.

10. Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Gary Peters

Some recent public polling has shown a close race here. A New York Times/Siena College poll from early October, for example, put Peters ahead by just 43% to 42%, well within the margin of error. Republicans think that reflects the strength of their candidate, Iraq War veteran John James, compared with the first-term incumbent. But Democrats aren't buying it, pointing out that Peters outraised James in the pre-general reporting period -- a change from earlier in the year -- and that Biden's edge here should boost the incumbent. A Fox News poll from later in October gave Peters a 49% to 41% lead among likely voters, which is more in line with what one would expect if the Democrats are performing well here at the top of the ticket. Still, given the outside spending from both sides in the Senate race, this contest is worth keeping a close eye on.

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, one week from Election Day

The Senate majority is firmly within Democrats' reach with just a week to go until Election Day.

www.cnn.com

特朗普总统看明白了。

 

[lindamy]

特朗普总统看明白了。

他预计到这次可能要丢参议院。

 

[billwanhua]

A Trump win or a disputed result are Canadians' worst fears

Whatever happens on 3 November spells difficulty for Justin Trudeau as trade conflicts with the US are unlikely to go away even with a Biden victory

www.theguardian.com

 

[ccc]

他预计到这次可能要丢参议院。

参议院共100个席位，至少51席为多数。

现在共和党有53席，民主党45席，独立参议员2人。

这次参议院有35个席位重新选举，其中共和党23席，民主党12席。

那么，共和党尚存30席，民主党还有33席位。这次参院改选，共和党需赢得至少21席获取多数地位，民主党则需要赢得至少18席。

 

[ccc]

Why most Americans' votes likely won't sway the U.S. election

With one week to go before the U.S. election, voters in a handful of states are getting inundated with flyers, commercials and last-minute visits from candidates while the majority of American voters watch from the sidelines.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Anakin]

参议院共100个席位，至少51席为多数。

现在共和党有53席，民主党45席，独立参议员2人。

这次参议院有35个席位重新选举，其中共和党23席，民主党12席。

那么，共和党尚存30席，民主党还有33席位。这次参院改选，共和党需赢得至少21席获取多数地位，民主党则需要赢得至少18席。

所以急吼吼把法官认命了……

 

[ccc]

所以急吼吼把法官认命了……

明白人！

 

[谷歌大侠]

Multiple legal battles await Trump if he loses the U.S. election

U.S. President Donald Trump has been shielded from criminal indictments during his four years in the White House thanks to special protections as president, but experts say he could face a deluge of legal battles if he loses the upcoming U.S. election.

www.ctvnews.ca

TORONTO -- U.S. President Donald Trump has been shielded from criminal indictments during his four years in the White House thanks to special protections as president, but experts say he could face a deluge of legal battles if he loses the U.S. election next Tuesday.
.......

 

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[ccc]

US election predictions: How the 15 key battlegrounds could fall

This is what the polls say as we enter the final stretch of the US election campaign.

www.nzherald.co.nz

These are the "swing states" or "battleground states", a relatively small group of states that could conceivably be won by either Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

In this election, 15 states fall into that category.

The rest? We already know who will win them. Trump stands no chance whatsoever in Democratic Party strongholds like New York and California, for example, while he is unbeatable in heavily Republican territory, like Alabama or Oklahoma.

The ultimate goal is to reach a threshold of 270 electoral votes. Winning the popular vote in any given state will earn a candidate its entire haul of electoral votes, and move them that much closer to victory.

Below we have listed the states that are genuinely up for grabs, in alphabetical order. They represent a total of 221 electoral votes.

We'll run you through the current state of the polls in each state, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

We have also included the best margin each candidate has had in each state throughout the campaign, for added context.

ARIZONA (11 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +2.4

Biden's best margin: Biden +5.7

Trump's best margin: Biden +2

Since 1952, Arizona has only voted for a Democratic candidate once – Bill Clinton, in 1996 – and Donald Trump won it by a moderately comfortable margin of 4 per cent in 2016.

That doesn't sound like the voting pattern of a swing state, and yet, Arizona is very much in play this time. Trump has never led Biden in the state's polling average.

Of significance, perhaps, is the fact that Arizona was the home state of the late Republican senator John McCain, an American war hero who died in 2018.

Trump feuded with McCain, who was one of the President's few vocal critics within his own party, and that might hurt him with Arizonans.

The state has also undergone a pretty clear political shift to the left since 2016, with Democrats winning a few marquee statewide elections.

COLORADO (9 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +9.5

Biden's best margin: Biden +10

Trump's best margin: Biden +9

In the last six presidential elections, Colorado has been evenly split, going Democratic and Republican three times each.

The problem for Trump is that those three Republican victories came in 1996, 2000 and 2004. The Democrats are now aiming to win it four times in a row.


Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 5 per cent in Colorado four years ago, and the very limited polling we've seen this time around has shown him even further behind.

FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)
Current margin: Trump +0.4

Biden's best margin: Biden +7.8

Trump's best margin: Trump +0.4

If you only watch one state early in the evening, make it this one.

Florida is always unpredictable, and always close. The most famous example came in 2000, when George W. Bush was controversially declared the winner over Al Gore by 537 votes (Mr Bush won 48.85 per cent, compared to Mr Gore's 48.84 per cent).


Trump won it by 1.19 per cent four years ago, and Barack Obama by 0.88 per cent in 2012. Even in the landslide 2008 election the margin in Florida was less than 3 per cent. Blowouts simply do not seem to happen there.

It also happens to be one of the biggest prizes up for grabs, in terms of its electoral vote haul. And while Biden has a few other paths to victory, should he lose Florida, it will be very tough for the President to win without it.

GEORGIA (16 electoral votes)
Current margin: Trump +0.4

Biden's best margin: Biden +2

Trump's best margin: Trump +3

The very tight polling in Georgia, which has shown Biden ahead at times, might prove to be a mirage for the Democrats.

The Republican candidate has won this state in eight of the last nine elections, the sole exception being Bill Clinton all the way back in 1992. Trump beat Clinton by 5 per cent four years ago.

Georgia is certainly polling like a swing state, but its recent history is more red than purple.

IOWA (6 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +1.4

Biden's best margin: Biden +2.1

Trump's best margin: Trump +3.5

You might recognise Iowa as the site of the first contest in each major party's primary process. Because of that unique position, it has a heck of a lot of influence when it comes to choosing the presidential nominees.

Its influence in the general election is smaller, due to its relatively small number of electoral votes, but in an extremely tight contest Iowa could be decisive.

The state has voted for the victorious candidate in each of the last four elections, going Republican and Democratic twice each. The polls this time suggest it is a toss-up.

MICHIGAN (16 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +9.4

Biden's best margin: Biden +9.4

Trump's best margin: Biden +2.6

Michigan was one of three "Rust Belt" states that delivered Trump his surprise election win four years ago, thanks largely to his support among white working class voters.

Clinton barely campaigned there, believing it to be a fairly safe Democratic state. It had gone blue in each of the previous six elections, and Obama had beaten Mitt Romney by 10 per cent in 2012.

Trump's margin of victory was a razor-thin 0.22 per cent, representing just 11,000 votes.

He has spent recent months feuding with Michigan's Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer over her handling of the pandemic.

The polls here show Biden leading by a large margin.

MINNESOTA (10 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +6

Biden's best margin: Biden +10.7

Trump's best margin: Biden +3.7

Clinton only won Minnesota by about 2 per cent four years ago, and the polls show Biden up by mid-single digits there, so it certainly qualifies as a battleground state.

That said, like Georgia, its history suggests it is unlikely to deliver an upset.

Minnesota has voted Democratic in the last 11 elections. It was, in fact, the only state in the country to vote for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan in the 1984 landslide.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +10.7

Biden's best margin: Biden +5.7

Trump's best margin: Biden +4

A small and somewhat quirky state, New Hampshire was hotly contested in the early 2000s. Bush won it in 2000, but lost it to John Kerry in 2004.

Since then, New Hampshire has gradually come to be seen as a swing state that leans a teensy bit Democratic. Obama never had much trouble winning it.

Clinton, on the other hand, won it by just 3000 votes in 2016, or 0.37 per cent.

Biden's lead there has consistently been in the double digits.

NEVADA (6 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +4.6

Biden's best margin: Biden +6.2

Trump's best margin: Biden +4.5

This is another state Clinton managed to win narrowly four years ago, despite her broader defeat in the election.

Before that, Nevada had gone with the victorious candidate in every election since 1980, earning it a reputation as a reliable bellwether. Those of you who watched The West Wing will remember the crucial role it played in one of the show's fictional elections.

Trump has made a few campaign trips to Nevada, so he clearly feels it is in play, and he has been particularly vocal about mail-in voting there, implying (without evidence to back him up) that it will lead to massive fraud.

There hasn't been a heck of a lot of polling, but as far as we can tell, Biden holds a modest lead in the state.

NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +0.7

Biden's best margin: Biden +4.7

Trump's best margin: Trump +1

The more competitive of the two Carolinas is usually close, but almost always ends up voting Republican. The sole exception since 1980 came in Obama's 2008 landslide, but even then, he only claimed the state by a fraction of 1 per cent.

North Carolina was one of only two states Romney promptly won back for the Republicans four years later.

Trump won it by 3 per cent, and the polls suggest it will be close again, with Biden holding a very precarious lead.


OHIO (18 electoral votes)
Current margin: Trump +0.6

Biden's best margin: Biden +3.3

Trump's best margin: Trump +0.6

Ohio, with its chunky haul of 18 electoral votes, is widely seen as Trump's strongest swing state. And that is very good news for him, given it is also the nation's most reliable bellwether.

It has voted with the winning candidate in 14 straight elections, going all the way back to Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Four years ago, Trump beat Clinton by 8 per cent in Ohio, and the polls show him leading Biden there as well – albeit by a much, much thinner margin.


PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +3.8

Biden's best margin: Biden +8.5

Trump's best margin: Biden +3.6

In 2016, Trump broke the Democrats' six-election winning streak in Pennsylvania, blowing up the idea that it had shifted from purple to solidly blue. It was pretty close though, with a margin of just 0.71 per cent.

The President has been hammering Biden on fracking, which is a big issue in the state, accusing him of wanting to ban it. And a blunder from the Democrat in their final presidential debate, when he said he would "transition away" from the oil industry by 2025, could hurt him in Pennsylvania as well.

That said, Trump has never come close to leading in the polling average there.


TEXAS (38 electoral votes)
Current margin: Trump +2.6

Biden's best margin: Trump +0

Trump's best margin: Trump +4.4

Winning deep-red Texas has long been a bit of a pipe dream for the Democrats, and it is likely no different this time around, but a period of surprisingly strong polling for Biden there has technically thrown it into the swing state column.

Throughout July and August, Biden pulled virtually even with Trump in Texas, which has voted Republican in each the last 10 elections.

Biden has faded since then, and you'd have to think Trump will win it comfortably, just as he did four years ago.

Still, do keep an eye on Texas. If some monumental upset were to happen, the election would be all but over.

VIRGINIA (13 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +11.7

Biden's best margin: Biden +11.7

Trump's best margin: Biden +9.7

Virginia is a diverse state, with an interesting mix of demographics. It includes the heavily Democratic outer suburbs of Washington DC, a large number of Republican-leaning military personnel, and some more rural areas as well.

It has been a bit of a streaky state in presidential elections. Virginia went Republican 10 times in a row between 1968 and 2004, before turning into a comfortable win for the Democrats in the last three contests.

Clinton beat Trump by 5 per cent in 2016, and there are no signs of a swing towards the President in Virginia since then.

WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)
Current margin: Biden +5.5

Biden's best margin: Biden +6.7

Trump's best margin: Biden +3.5

Finally, we come to the last of the Rust Belt states that made Trump President in 2016.

He was the first Republican since Reagan to win Wisconsin, albeit by just 0.77 per cent.

This is another state where Biden has consistently led by a margin in the mid-single digits, so it certainly remains up for grabs.

If these polling averages are reflected on election day – and I really cannot stress enough how big an "if" that is – then Biden will win the electoral vote 310-228.

 

[lindamy]

53 mins ago
F-16s intercept plane flying too close to Trump rally in Arizona

 

[ccc]

CNN Poll: Biden continues to hold nationwide advantage in final days of 2020 race

With the race for the presidency approaching its end amid a raging pandemic, Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintains a substantial lead over President Donald Trump nationwide, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

www.cnn.com