北美通胀会不会得到控制。咱们拭目以待。别到时候双痛苦。哎

[metropolis]

火车好像不太影响底层，在这能坐的起火车的都不是底层

LRT 也得基建吧？谁坐

 

[welcomelm]

LRT 也得基建吧？谁坐

lrt本身就是基建，挺好的一件事，只不过办砸了。但是你不能blame它的初衷是吧。

 

[metropolis]

lrt本身就是基建，挺好的一件事，只不过办砸了。但是你不能blame它的初衷是吧。

我说的就是基建的必要性，即使富裕的西方国家。

不让外人，竞争对手做，可以理解。自己不可能一直停留在几十年，一百前的基建上成果上不发展新的。

各种基建还有必要，当然不是说要搞到狂魔的程度。小打小闹，修修补补都是必不可少的，搞砸了的项目比比皆是。

 

[茶马盐铁]

 

[贵圈]

通胀就是把大家兜里的钱清空一下。是犯罪。

正常理性痛涨，是自由市场经济的标志。是模型的一个参数。是资本主义的本质。

非理性，恶性通胀，其实也是。但是的确是抢劫。因为正常自由市场经济。是不会累计出恶性通胀的。

一旦出现恶性通胀，必然是有一些人为了暴利或权力，把大家给卖了。

 

[贵圈]

Elon Musk has called out the Fed more than 20 times for hiking interest rates too much. Here's a roundup of his attacks on the central bank.​

Theron Mohamed
Apr 28, 2023, 8:28 AM EDT

Elon Musk. Brendan McDermid/Reuters

• Elon Musk has blasted the Fed's interest-rate hikes more than 20 times in the past seven months.
• The Tesla CEO has argued they're unnecessary, dangerous, and harmful to companies.
• Musk has also warned higher rates are pressuring banks and could fuel a credit crunch.

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Elon Musk has called out the Federal Reserve more than 20 times in the past seven months, as he continues to rail against the US central bank for hiking interest rates too aggressively.
In a bid to curb historic inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate from virtually zero to about 5% within the past 14 months. Musk — the CEO of Tesla, Twitter, and SpaceX — has complained the hikes aren't needed, they're boosting the risk of a recession, and they're hurting Tesla by making its vehicles pricier and pulling down its stock price.
The tech billionaire has also warned that higher rates are heaping pressure on banks, and might contribute to a credit crunch. He's blasted the central bank in tweets, on Tesla's earnings calls, and during media interviews.

Here's a roundup of Musk's criticisms of the Fed during the past 7 months:​

1. "A major Fed rate hike risks deflation." (September)
2. "The Fed is raising interest rates more than they should, but I think they'll eventually realize that and bring it back down again. The Fed is not listening because they're looking at the rearview mirror instead of looking out the front windshield." (October)
3. "Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession." (November)
4. "If the Fed raises rates again next week, the recession will be greatly amplified." (December)
5. "Tesla is executing better than ever! We don't control the Federal Reserve. That is the real problem here." (December)
6. "I keep saying that Fed rate is insane, because data I'm seeing says we're already in deflation." (December)
7. "At risk of stating obvious, beware of debt in turbulent macroeconomic conditions, especially when Fed keeps raising rates." (December)
8. "At the risk of being repetitive, these Fed rate increases might go down in history as most damaging ever." (December)
9. "It's blowing my mind that the Fed has raised rates so high. The economy right now is like a car driving around on a cliffside road, and the Fed is driving it by looking at a video taken of the rearview mirror that's three months old. This is not a good way to drive a car on a windy cliff road. I think we're in for a hard landing." (December)
10. "I wonder what would have happened in 2009 if the Fed had raised rates instead of lowering them." (January)
11. "The higher the rates, the harder the fall." (January)
12. "Fed rate increases make cars more expensive for consumers, increasing the difficulty level for automotive companies." (January)
13. "Every time Fed raises rates, they're increasing monthly payments for anything bought with debt." (January)
14. "Maximum skill with monetary policy is extremely important in this role! A bad Fed decision affects the lives of everyone." (February)
15. "The Fed is operating with way too much latency in their data. Rates need to drop immediately." (March)
16. "'Once again, we are confidently wrong' – The Fed." (March)
17. "Fed needs to drop the rate by at least 50bps on Wednesday." (March)
18. "A major driver of depositor flight is people moving money from low interest savings accounts to high interest money market (Treasury Bill) accounts. This foolish rate hike will worsen depositor flight." (March)
19. "You're welcome, now if only you were the actual head of the Fed!" (April)
20. "Every time the Fed raises the interest rates, that's equivalent to increasing the price of a car. For most people, their ability to buy a car is a function of can they make the monthly payment or not. If interest rates are really high, like they are right now, in some cases, people can't get a loan at all." (April)
21. "The data with which the Federal Reserve is making decisions has too much latency." (April)

 

[贵圈]

以下是马斯克在过去 7 个月中对美联储的批评综述：
1.“美联储大幅加息有通缩风险。” （九月）
2.“美联储的加息幅度超过了他们应有的水平，但我认为他们最终会意识到这一点并再次降息。美联储没有倾听，因为他们正在看后视镜而不是向前看挡风玻璃。” （十月）
3.“美联储需要立即降息。他们正在大幅放大严重衰退的可能性。” （十一月）
4.“如果美联储下周再次加息，经济衰退将被大大放大。” （十二月）
5.“特斯拉的表现比以往任何时候都好！我们无法控制美联储。这才是真正的问题所在。” （十二月）
6. “我一直在说美联储利率是疯了，因为我看到的数据表明我们已经处于通货紧缩状态。” （十二月）
7.“在动荡的宏观经济条件下，尤其是在美联储不断加息的情况下，要注意债务的风险。” （十二月）
8. “冒着重复的风险，这些美联储加息可能会成为有史以来最具破坏性的历史记录。” （十二月）
9. “美联储加息如此之高，让我大吃一惊。现在的经济就像一辆在悬崖边路上行驶的汽车，美联储是通过看三个月后的后视镜拍摄的视频来驾驶它的老了。这不是在多风的悬崖路上开车的好方法。我认为我们会硬着陆。” （十二月）
10. “我想知道如果美联储提高利率而不是降低利率，2009 年会发生什么。” （一月）
11. “利率越高，跌得越厉害。” （一月）
12. “美联储加息使汽车对消费者来说更贵，增加了汽车公司的难度。” （一月）
13.“每次美联储加息，他们都会增加用债务购买的任何东西的每月支付额。” （一月）
14.“货币政策的最大技巧在这个角色中极其重要！美联储的错误决定会影响每个人的生活。” （二月）
15. “美联储的数据延迟太多。利率需要立即下降。” （行进）
16. “‘再一次，我们肯定错了’——美联储。” （行进）
17. “美联储需要在周三至少降息 50 个基点。” （行进）
18. “储户外逃的一个主要驱动因素是人们将资金从低息储蓄账户转移到高息货币市场（国库券）账户。这种愚蠢的加息将加剧储户外逃。” （行进）
19. “不客气，现在要是你是美联储的实际负责人就好了！” （四月）
20、“美联储每次加息，就相当于提高了汽车的价格。对大多数人来说，他们买车的能力取决于他们是否能够每月支付。如果利率真的是高，就像现在一样，在某些情况下，人们根本无法获得贷款。” （四月）
21. “美联储用来做决定的数据有太多延迟。” （四月）

最近一次




“Fed data has too much latency. Mild recession is already here. It’s not like just the canary in the coal mine (SVB) died, one of the staunchest miners (Credit Suisse) died too & the cemetery is filling up fast! Further rate hikes will trigger severe recession. Mark my words. Between, Tesla, Starlink & Twitter, I may have more real-time global economic data in one head than anyone ever。“

美联储数据有太多延迟。温和的衰退已经来临。不仅仅是煤矿中的金丝雀 (SVB) 死了，最坚定的矿工之一 (Credit Suisse) 也死了，墓地很快就被填满了！进一步加息将引发严重的衰退。记住我的话。在 Tesla、Starlink 和 Twitter 之间，我可能比任何人都拥有更多的实时全球经济数据。

 

[贵圈]

老马，用数据判断， 跟圈儿哥用逻辑判断，不谋而合啊。

逻辑的重要性。

 

[贵圈]

2008年倒闭的银行资产规模达到顶峰，为3736亿美元。而到目前为止，2023年已有3家大银行破产，总资产达5485亿美元。即使算上2009年破产银行1709亿美元的资产，2023年的情况仍比2008-2009年危机期间还要糟糕。

 

[tt8966]

浏览附件1093028

2008年倒闭的银行资产规模达到顶峰，为3736亿美元。而到目前为止，2023年已有3家大银行破产，总资产达5485亿美元。即使算上2009年破产银行1709亿美元的资产，2023年的情况仍比2008-2009年危机期间还要糟糕。

是因为通胀显得银行有钱了还是情况真的不容乐观？

 

[贵圈]

那一次时杠杆过度，金融危机而已，这一次，哈哈。。。

超发货币
制造业萎缩
美元危机
通货膨胀
实业疲软
欧洲开战
对抗中国

你们猜猜，这一次，会如何？

 

[燕麦粥周]

有兴趣的可以看看FRC的财报，除了投资现金流有些紧张，其他都看上去很完美，这样规模的银行说倒就倒了，其他银行能独善其身?
现在我只希望我们加国的银行不要出问题，否则后果可能不堪设想。

 

[ztbll]

现实如此残酷，能怪谁啊，就是煞笔韭菜太多了，被猪媒洗的脑袋空空的，除了眼麽前那点逼事，啥也不懂，除了卷就是岁月静好。让打针就打针，让交碳税就交碳税，还以为政客会为他们服务，幼稚了，准备被活扒皮吧，等顺着伤口淌血的时候再明白也晚了。这次普定很可能在乌克兰用战术核武器，司机已经躲到别的国家了，都在赌败灯这个能把屎拉裤裆的家伙不敢奉陪。

 

[billwanhua]

有兴趣的可以看看FRC的财报，除了投资现金流有些紧张，其他都看上去很完美，这样规模的银行说倒就倒了，其他银行能独善其身?
现在我只希望我们加国的银行不要出问题，否则后果可能不堪设想。

Michael Milken says recent crisis is the same mistake banks have been making for decades

Famed investor Michael Milken said the current banking crisis stemmed from a classic asset-liability mismatch that had played out miserably time and again.

www.cnbc.com

“You shouldn’t have borrowed short and lent long... Finance 101,” Milken said on CNBC’s “Last Call.” “How many times, how many decades are we going to learn this lesson of borrowing overnight and lending long? Whether it was the 1970s, the 1980s and 90s.”

“Again here, the banks have enough credit, they had enough equity, they had enough ability to absorb credit losses that are coming. However, what they did is they doubled, tripled, quadrupled their size by borrowing overnight at artificially low rates, and buying intermediate securities,” said Milken in the rare comments on the financial markets by the junk bond innovator.

感觉银行就像以前很多金融危机的国家，比喻亚洲金融危机时的韩国和东南亚，美元放水低的时候借钱，美元收水高的时候撑不住，以前是害了其他国家，这次是害了自己的银行

 

[燕麦粥周]

Michael Milken says recent crisis is the same mistake banks have been making for decades

Famed investor Michael Milken said the current banking crisis stemmed from a classic asset-liability mismatch that had played out miserably time and again.

www.cnbc.com

“You shouldn’t have borrowed short and lent long... Finance 101,” Milken said on CNBC’s “Last Call.” “How many times, how many decades are we going to learn this lesson of borrowing overnight and lending long? Whether it was the 1970s, the 1980s and 90s.”

“Again here, the banks have enough credit, they had enough equity, they had enough ability to absorb credit losses that are coming. However, what they did is they doubled, tripled, quadrupled their size by borrowing overnight at artificially low rates, and buying intermediate securities,” said Milken in the rare comments on the financial markets by the junk bond innovator.

感觉银行就像以前很多金融危机的国家，比喻亚洲金融危机时的韩国和东南亚，美元放水低的时候借钱，美元收水高的时候撑不住，以前是害了其他国家，这次是害了自己的银行

我估计银行大概率都用杠杆，短借长投，碰到加息周期就玩完。