美国要破产？

[知更鸟]

不要为美国财政美联储花街操心。人家不是傻子。做金融顶层设计和风险管理的时候，你的预期，早就在人家的预期中。美国通常在降息周期多发国债，加息周期放慢国债增幅。一加一减，都是在割别人韭菜。美国国债很多是10年，20年，30年期的。不管有那些国债到期，美国每年需要发新债的规模就那么大！ 加息周期对美国有影响远远小于世界其他国家。普通美国人住房贷款平均要15年才需要 renew。 加息周期对美国人个人债务的冲击也要远远小于加国。美元也许有跨掉的一天。不过美国美元也是世界的问题。在美国美元垮掉前，包括加国在内的其他国家会先垮。

我关心加国什么时候垮掉，以什么形式垮掉，那时候俺们是不是就没人管了？

 

[Jay Wang]

我关心加国什么时候垮掉，以什么形式垮掉，那时候俺们是不是就没人管了？

拿大破产，不可能！

满地流油，家里有矿，土壤肥沃，山上有树，水里有鱼，…

 

[知更鸟]

拿大破产，不可能！

满地流油，家里有矿，土壤肥沃，山上有树，水里有鱼，…

那只能证明拿大是肥肉

 

[草头将军]

拿大破产，不可能！

满地流油，家里有矿，土壤肥沃，山上有树，水里有鱼，…

卖给谁？
现在 80% 出口美国。一旦美国没钱了，加拿大的油矿树能直接吃吗？

 

[billwanhua]

The Fed Reduced the Short-Term Rate Again, but Interest Costs Remain High

High interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities increase the federal government’s borrowing costs.

www.pgpf.org

看看美国政府自己的数字和预估：

In late May, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that annual net interest costs would total $399 billion in 2022 and nearly triple over the upcoming decade, soaring from $442 billion to $1.2 trillion and summing to $8.1 trillion over that period. However, if inflation is higher than CBO’s projections and if the Fed raises interest rates by larger amounts than the agency projected, such costs may rise even faster than anticipated.

2022年，利息就$3990亿， 如果利息按现在趋势，未来会涨到1.2万亿。
想美国还债是不可能的。债务越高，未来美国减息加息蓐羊毛就越玩不转。

这还是美国联邦政府债，美国各州和各市三级政府债也是一个无底洞，可以参考加拿大三级政府债务。

 

[c8848]

米破，中崩。都是吸流量的保证。

 

[Jay Wang]

卖给谁？
现在 80% 出口美国。一旦美国没钱了，加拿大的油矿树能直接吃吗？

土鳖啊！

 

[FlyingEagle]

普通美国人住房贷款平均要15年才需要 renew。 加息周期对美国人个人债务的冲击也要远远小于加国。

对。几个月前一位美国华人网友说，他锁定的15年房贷固定利率上升不少，让他买房成本增加，不过，也让他买到心仪的房子。因为利率上升，没有那么多人和他抢房子。说明美国人住房贷款观念和加拿大住房贷款观念完全不同。15年房贷固定利率大大降低了短期加息对房贷的影响。

 

[草头将军]

土鳖啊！

看看加拿大现在这个尿性。真到那个时候中国不过来踩几脚就是大恩大德了。

 

[贾和平]

Not trying to be a hero, but a lot of information and explanation on the economy and stock markets in CFC are misplaced just like this picture:

The US government debt ceiling is a problem and is not a problem. It will eventually get over it for sure after a few days, weeks, or even months, just like every time it came before.

1) The US government debt is a problem! Because since the pandemic the government debt has explosively increased ( debt/GDP,124% to 31T). Someone in this post said: " 实际上米国国债占财政收入的比例处于历史低位." That is untrue. Check out the diagrams below to compare US government revenue to government debt( national debt):

Federal Revenue Trends over time FY 2015 -2022:

US national debt over 100 years

For details above click the links to see the Stackline diagrams. Brief calculation on it from the two Stackline diagrams above is as follows:

2006: Debt: $12.40 T, Revenue: $4.02 T, Debt/Revenue: 309%;
2022: Debt: $30.93T, Revenue: $4.90 T, Debt/Revenue: 631%

2) The US government debt is not a problem! Think about the history of every time the US government debt ceiling ( crisis): the last time the US government debt ceiling crisis was in 2011, among five rating agencies, only moody cut the US government rating from AAA to AA+. As a result, both Moody and the US government were embarrassed: the government rating was cut due to debt and money print; Moody was embarrassed because its calculation has an error ( missed $1 billion or trillion?).

The media reports on the US government debt ceiling crisis and the US government's probable default on its debt were fierce at the time. The market reaction was that people rushed into buying the US government treasuries (debt) and US$ went up. ( rush to buy a possibly defaulted debt? )

Fed chair Allen Greenspan, who just retired not long ago at the time, spoke the truth in NBC" Meet the Press": "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that"

3) You may ask why? These pictures briefly explain it:

In the case of a stock market master in CFC recommended buying" 国防ETF: ITA （到处都在军备和打仗，国防类的会很稳健) and to avoid misperception from the above pictures I posted, for those who might be impulsive to buy defense stocks, be careful what you wish for! Defense stocks are expensive right now, and the debt ceiling issue won't help the defense stock. To buy defense stock from the above pictures or from some stock master's advice in CFC is completely at your own peril.

 

[RareEarth]

United States - Interest Payments (% Of Revenue)

 

[茶马盐铁]

说到美国海军， 那就只能呵呵呵了。

一个依靠冷战时期的军舰撑场面的“海军“， 一个自以为”新型“战舰在PPT阶段就输给了PLA已经下水入列舰艇的所谓”海军“， 一个就剩下两个造船厂， 而且只有维护能力，没有了造船能力的造船工业支持下的所谓”海军“。。。

真不知道还能back谁去。 呵呵。

 

[billwanhua]

The US government debt is not a problem! Think about the history of every time the US government debt ceiling ( crisis): the last time the US government debt ceiling crisis was in 2011, among five rating agencies, only moody cut the US government rating from AAA to AA+. As result, both Moody and the US government were embarrassed: the government rate was cut due to debt and money print; Moody was embarrassed because its calculation has an error ( missed $1 billion or trillion?).

The rating agencies, big banks and the government are in the same boat. That's how the world works as in this movie:



They are selling rates for fees

 

[贾和平]

The rating agencies, big banks and the government are in the same boat. That's how the world works as in this movie:



They are selling rates for fees

True, just like your plumber or dentist, do some work for you and make money, but sometimes do a Ponzi scheme.

 

[光放]

现在美国国债的信用等级还是最高的吧？什么时候大幅降低，那可以才意味着出问题了。

能提前预见的才是牛逼。