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俄罗斯对乌克兰进行赤裸裸的侵略一年后，很明显，双方都不足以赢得战争，也没有弱到可以求和的地步。冲突陷入僵局。在取得令人印象深刻的进展之后，乌克兰武装部队几个月来没有取得重大进展。与此同时，俄罗斯已经深入其占领的领土，其进一步的攻击迄今收效甚微。
数字说明了一切。据《华盛顿邮报》分析，俄罗斯在2022年2月发动入侵时占据了乌克兰约7%的领土，横扫乌克兰东部，一个月内占领了乌克兰22%的领土。然后是乌克兰的反攻，到 11 月中旬，乌克兰已经收回了大约三分之一的收益。在过去的三个月里，没有什么重大变化。乌克兰和俄罗斯都在计划新举措，但要从根本上改变局势，还需要取得巨大胜利。换句话说，乌克兰需要收复的领土大约是去年的两倍，才能收回自 2022 年入侵以来被征服的土地。俄罗斯在战争中的表现一直很差，但有所改进，尤其是在控制领土方面。俄罗斯也能够稳定其经济，国际货币基金组织预计今年的经济表现将优于英国或德国。
俄罗斯与中国、印度等经济巨头以及土耳其和伊朗等邻国进行自由贸易。由于这些国家和更多国家，在先进技术部门之外，它可以获得在西方抵制中失去的所有商品和资本。现在有一个不包括西方在内的庞大的世界经济，俄罗斯可以在那些海域自由畅游。战争的长期成本和制裁的影响是真实存在的，但效果缓慢。这种孤立和痛苦很少改变独裁政权的政策——看看朝鲜、伊朗、古巴和委内瑞拉。
那么，前进的道路是什么？从短期来看，西方及其盟友只有一个答案——给乌克兰更多的武器和金钱。如果已经决定普京的侵略战争绝不能得到回报，那就采取一切措施使之成为现实。对于乌克兰要求的几乎每一种武器系统，都有一种先是矛盾，然后是延迟，最后是同意的模式。为什么不发送更多，更快？接下来的三个月至关重要，因为冬季解冻并使部队行动更容易。
综上所述，然而，很难想象二战式的全面胜利。大多数战争以谈判结束。这个不太可能有所不同。西方的任务是确保乌克兰在战场上取得足够的成功和势头，以强有力的方式进入这些谈判。只有乌克兰取得戏剧性的胜利——比如切断克里米亚——才有可能将普京带到谈判桌上。
有没有办法结束敌对行动？在纸面上，是的。可以想象停火将自 2022 年 2 月以来占领的所有土地归还乌克兰。那些较早采取的行动，如 2014 年的克里米亚，将接受国际仲裁，包括由国际组织而非俄罗斯政府进行的地方公投。此外，乌克兰将从北约获得安全保证，尽管它们不适用于那些有争议的领土。这种权衡——简单地说，克里米亚和顿巴斯的部分地区实际上是北约和欧盟的成员——可以卖给乌克兰人，因为他们将实现成为西方一部分的长期目标。俄罗斯可能会接受它，因为它可以声称保护了乌克兰的一些俄语地区。
许多人认为，战争可以以乌克兰的全面胜利而告终。我希望如此，但我对此表示怀疑。 2021 年，俄罗斯的人口是乌克兰的三倍多，GDP 几乎是乌克兰的 15 倍，国防预算支出是乌克兰的 10 倍。众所周知，俄罗斯人在战时具有很强的痛苦能力。 （苏联在二战中损失了 2400 万人，而美国损失了 420,000 人。）虽然俄罗斯的经济正在缓慢下滑，但乌克兰的经济已经跌落悬崖。 2022 年 GDP 收缩了约 30%，政府的支出是收入的两倍多（多亏了西方援助）。
超过 1300 万人流离失所，其中约 800 万人在国外。战争发生在乌克兰的土地上，城市被炮轰成废墟，工厂被夷为平地，人民变得一贫如洗。如果它像这样磨磨蹭蹭多年，那就值得一问了——我们是不是为了拯救乌克兰而让乌克兰被摧毁？
Opinion: There is a path to ending the Ukraine war
Opinion by Fareed ZakariaPublished 7:08 AM EST, Fri February 24, 2023
See Ukrainian soldier ask US official about ammo
02:51 - Source: CNN
Editor’s Note: Fareed Zakaria hosts Fareed Zakaria GPS, airing Sundays at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET on CNN. The views expressed here are his own. Read more opinion at CNN.
CNN — One year into Russia’s naked aggression against Ukraine, it has become clear that neither side is strong enough to win the war nor weak enough to sue for peace. The conflict has settled into a stalemate. After making impressive gains, Ukraine’s armed forces have not made significant advances in months. Russia meanwhile has dug into the territories it occupies, and its further attacks are having little success so far.
The numbers tell the story. According to a Washington Post analysis, Russia occupied about 7% of Ukrainian territory when it launched its invasion in February 2022. It swept into eastern Ukraine, and in a month it was holding 22% of the country. Then came Ukrainian counter-offensives, which by mid-November had taken back about a third of those gains. In the last three months nothing significant has changed. Ukraine and Russia are both planning new moves, but it would take massive victories to fundamentally change the situation. To put it another way, Ukraine would need to recover roughly twice as much territory as it was able to last year just to get back the lands conquered since the 2022 invasion.
Russia’s performance in the war has been poor but it is doing better, especially at holding territory. Russia has also been able to stabilize its economy, which the IMF projects will do better this year than the UK’s or Germany’s.
Russia is trading freely with such economic behemoths as China, and India, as well as neighbors like Turkey and Iran. Because of these countries and many more, outside of the advanced technology sector, it has access to all the goods and capital it lost through the Western boycott. There is now a huge world economy that does not include the West, and Russia can swim in those waters freely. The long-term costs of the war and the effects of the sanctions are real but slow. This kind of isolation and pain rarely changes a dictatorship’s policies – look at North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela.
So, what is the path forward? In the short run, there is only one answer for the West and its allies – give Ukraine more weapons and money. If the decision has been made that Putin’s war of aggression must not be rewarded, then take all steps to make that a reality. With almost every weapons system requested by Ukraine, there is a pattern of ambivalence first, then delay, and then finally agreement. Why not send more, sooner? The next three months are crucial, as the winter thaws and makes troop movements easier.
All that said, however, it is difficult to imagine a World War II style total victory. Most wars end in negotiations. This one is unlikely to be different. The task for the West is to ensure that Ukraine has enough success and momentum on the battlefield that it enters those negotiations with a very strong hand. Only dramatic Ukrainian victories – like cutting off Crimea – will likely bring Putin to the negotiating table.
Is there a way to end the hostilities? On paper, yes. It’s possible to imagine a cease-fire that returns all lands captured since February 2022 to Ukraine. Those taken earlier, like Crimea in 2014, would be subject to international arbitration, including local referendums that would be conducted by international groups not the Russian government. In addition, Ukraine would get security guarantees from NATO, though they would not apply to those disputed territories. That tradeoff – to put it simply, Crimea and parts of the Donbas for de facto NATO and EU membership – is one that could be sold to Ukrainians because they would achieve their long-cherished goal of becoming part of the West. It could be acceptable to Russia because it could claim to have protected some Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine.
There are many who believe that the war can end with a total Ukrainian victory. I hope so, but I doubt it. In 2021, Russia was more than three times bigger than Ukraine in population, almost 15 times bigger in GDP, and spent 10 times more on its defense budget. Russians have been known to have a high capacity for pain in wartime. (The Soviet Union lost 24 million people in World War II compared to America’s 420,000.) And while Russia’s economy is in slow decline, Ukraine’s has fallen off a cliff. GDP contracted by about 30% in 2022, and the government is spending more than double what it takes in (thanks to Western aid).
More than 13 million people are displaced, about 8 million of them abroad. The war is taking place on Ukrainian soil, with its cities being bombarded to rubble, its factories razed, its people turned destitute. If it grinds on like this for years, it will be worth asking – are we letting Ukraine get destroyed in order to save it.
Opinion: There is a path to ending the Ukraine war
One year into Russia's naked aggression against Ukraine, it has become clear that neither side is strong enough to win the war nor weak enough to sue for peace, writes Fareed Zakaria.
