老印教授在美国外交头号期刊 “国家利益NATIONAL INTEREST"发文说中国是俄乌战争唯一赢家,美国犯了严重错误

ert0000

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May 13, 2023 Topic: Ukraine War Region: Eastern Europe Tags: United StatesEuropeRussiaUkraineChinaEastern EuropeUkraine War

In the Ukraine War, China Is the Only Winner​

With the West stuck in another protracted and unwinnable war, and Russia growing more dependent on Beijing, China is positioned to come out of the conflict more powerful than before.

by Nilay Saiya Rahmat Wadidi

The war in Ukraine has settled into a bloody stalemate with no end in sight. As the world braces for more bloodshed and destruction in the second year of the war, all the major players find themselves having gained no clear victory—except China.

On one side of the conflict are the United States and its allies. Since President Joe Biden has come to office, the United States has been Ukraine’s most steadfast supporter, pumping more than $75 billion into the country in humanitarian, financial, and military support. Washington has been, or will soon be, providing Kiev with advanced weapons systems, including Javelins, the Patriot air defense system, and M1A1 and A2 Abrams tanks. America’s European partners have also been providing ongoing assistance to Ukraine in different areas, including financial, humanitarian, energy, and budget support, as well as diplomatic outreach. The European Union in December last year agreed on a legislative package that will provide Ukraine with €18 billion in financial support over 2023. Yet, despite the seemingly bottomless support provided by the West to Ukraine, the United States and its European allies are no closer to expelling Russia from Ukraine than when the war first began, while draining their own resources.

On the other side of the war is Russia, which continues to be the architect of its own demise. While the Russian economy has resisted the brunt of Western economic sanctions, Moscow has lost the EU market, experienced a tremendous brain drain, grown dependent on Iran and North Korea for arms and supplies, and become the de facto junior partner to China. By all metrics, Russia has failed in its bid for renewed hegemony over its own front yard. NATO is now more united than ever, has added Finland to the alliance, and is on track to add Sweden. Furthermore, the Russian-Ukrainian war has accelerated the global transition towards alternative energy, thereby posing a grave threat to Moscow’s fossil-fuel-based economy. In terms of the human cost of war, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies reports that Russian armed forces and private military contractors fighting alongside them have suffered 60,000 to 70,000 combat fatalities over the past year.
Clearly, the biggest loser in the war is Ukraine itself. Having heroically fought off the initial Russian decapitation strike aimed against Kiev, which targeted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself, Ukraine now finds itself facing a World War I-esque situation of trench warfare against the Russians. The frontlines have become largely static along the oblasts of Kherson, Zaprizhchia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. At least 8,000 non-combatants and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the war began. Nearly 18 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance, with 14 million displaced from their homes. Vladimir Putin has ratcheted up the nuclear brinkmanship, announcing plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July of this year—a move that would pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s survival. While Kiev has managed to avert defeat, victory—or more practically an end to the war—appears nowhere in sight.

Yet there is one country that is winning from the carnage: China. Just as Beijing sat back and smiled as the United States bled itself in various interventions in the Middle East over the past two decades, it is again doing the same now as Washington has found itself bogged down in yet another protracted and unwinnable war. In the meantime, China has funneled considerable expenditure into its military, modernizing its air and ground forces, expanding its naval forces in East Asia to counter the existing U.S. naval presence, and upgrading its strategic and tactical nuclear stockpile and launch systems. Chinese policymakers understand that continued and costly American forays abroad will only tip the balance of power further in Beijing’s favor. China has also taken advantage of the Ukraine war in its foreign policy, steadily increasing its economic relations with Russia and, according to some China experts, possibly supplying Russia with weapons and ammunition in the near future.

The devastating irony of the situation is that the West became embroiled in a war against Russia at the very moment when it should have been cultivating Russia as a counterbalance against the rise of China. Instead, the West has pushed Russia into the waiting arms of Beijing, which has been more than willing to pursue a “friendship with no limits” with a Russia that has every reason to fear a rising China. Nevertheless, instead of a situation where the United States and Russia are working together to contain China, we instead have one where they are effectively fighting a war against each other in Ukraine. The United States has thus set itself up for a confrontation against two great powers, a situation that only naïve optimists believe the United States can win.
Nilay Saiya is an associate professor of public policy and global affairs at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

Rahmat Wadidi is a graduate student in international relations at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Image: Shutterstock.
 

welcomelm

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这场战争让很多大企业开始考虑供应链的地缘政治风险,因为下一个潜在的风险就是大陆打台湾,所以大陆的很多生产线都迁往东南亚。美国是最没有地缘政治风险的国家。
 

贵圈

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印度也赢了. 虽然没中国赚得那么多. 这人说话, 偏心眼子
 

welcomelm

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你不懂什么东西。很多企业迁出中国跟地缘政治没有什么关系,中国被污染够了,人也富有了,劳动力贵了,这些生产线所以搬到了更便宜的地方,是利润所驱使,早就开始了,以后越南会更污染,印度会更多污染。
乌克兰战争结束了,乌克兰就是很好的生产地,因为劳动力便宜。

你怎么证明企业迁出中国和地缘政治风险没关系呢。所有从俄罗斯撤出的企业,都会很自然的考虑下一个俄罗斯是谁。

普京寻求“法律解决方案”没收撤出俄罗斯的公司的在俄资产​

 

welcomelm

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去看看沃尔玛的东西,以前都是中国制造的,现在大部分不是了。是中国劳动力贵了,北美的资本家不愿意降低利润。所以把生产线搬到劳动力便宜的地方去了。动动脑子,去学点经济。

这无法证明企业撤出中国和地缘政治风险无关,照你这么说,dell从中国转移芯片产能,也是因为中国芯片贵了?

 
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草头将军

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这基本上又是煽动中国威胁的文章。尽管印度已经沾了不少便宜。而且为此印度首富还不得不付出巨大代价。我感觉这场战争最大的赢家是美国,而且已经赚了不少钱了。欧洲国家已经买了美国不少武器,还有不得不买了美国不少高价的石油和天然气,而且不少东欧国家已经让美国军队住进去了,这样美国实际上控制了更多的欧洲国家。乌克兰欠美国的钱今后50年内可能还不清的。

以前中国是乌克兰的最大贸易国。现在中国担心制裁很多东西不能销往俄罗斯。战争让石油和原材料都涨价,而且让欧洲考虑对中国脱钩,Nato更加逼近中国。美国可以以乌克兰战争为借口更多地控制台湾。实际上这场战争长远来讲对中国弊大于利。金砖国家在扩张,俄罗斯以后对中国可能没有那么重要。

注意新闻的人会意识到各种文章都是在为中国威胁做铺垫的。
战略层面:把俄罗斯逼得倒向中国,中国赚了。北约复活了,美国也赚了。但赚头小于中国
经济层面:美国赚了,中国也赚了。旗鼓相当
政治层面:世界看清了美国是乱源,美元不可靠。欧盟也惊醒,美国太自私,跟着只能吃亏上当。美国大亏。
如果俄乌调停成功,中国将大赚。
 
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May 13, 2023 Topic: Ukraine War Region: Eastern Europe Tags: United StatesEuropeRussiaUkraineChinaEastern EuropeUkraine War

In the Ukraine War, China Is the Only Winner​

With the West stuck in another protracted and unwinnable war, and Russia growing more dependent on Beijing, China is positioned to come out of the conflict more powerful than before.

by Nilay Saiya Rahmat Wadidi

The war in Ukraine has settled into a bloody stalemate with no end in sight. As the world braces for more bloodshed and destruction in the second year of the war, all the major players find themselves having gained no clear victory—except China.

On one side of the conflict are the United States and its allies. Since President Joe Biden has come to office, the United States has been Ukraine’s most steadfast supporter, pumping more than $75 billion into the country in humanitarian, financial, and military support. Washington has been, or will soon be, providing Kiev with advanced weapons systems, including Javelins, the Patriot air defense system, and M1A1 and A2 Abrams tanks. America’s European partners have also been providing ongoing assistance to Ukraine in different areas, including financial, humanitarian, energy, and budget support, as well as diplomatic outreach. The European Union in December last year agreed on a legislative package that will provide Ukraine with €18 billion in financial support over 2023. Yet, despite the seemingly bottomless support provided by the West to Ukraine, the United States and its European allies are no closer to expelling Russia from Ukraine than when the war first began, while draining their own resources.

On the other side of the war is Russia, which continues to be the architect of its own demise. While the Russian economy has resisted the brunt of Western economic sanctions, Moscow has lost the EU market, experienced a tremendous brain drain, grown dependent on Iran and North Korea for arms and supplies, and become the de facto junior partner to China. By all metrics, Russia has failed in its bid for renewed hegemony over its own front yard. NATO is now more united than ever, has added Finland to the alliance, and is on track to add Sweden. Furthermore, the Russian-Ukrainian war has accelerated the global transition towards alternative energy, thereby posing a grave threat to Moscow’s fossil-fuel-based economy. In terms of the human cost of war, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies reports that Russian armed forces and private military contractors fighting alongside them have suffered 60,000 to 70,000 combat fatalities over the past year.
Clearly, the biggest loser in the war is Ukraine itself. Having heroically fought off the initial Russian decapitation strike aimed against Kiev, which targeted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself, Ukraine now finds itself facing a World War I-esque situation of trench warfare against the Russians. The frontlines have become largely static along the oblasts of Kherson, Zaprizhchia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. At least 8,000 non-combatants and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the war began. Nearly 18 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance, with 14 million displaced from their homes. Vladimir Putin has ratcheted up the nuclear brinkmanship, announcing plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July of this year—a move that would pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s survival. While Kiev has managed to avert defeat, victory—or more practically an end to the war—appears nowhere in sight.

Yet there is one country that is winning from the carnage: China. Just as Beijing sat back and smiled as the United States bled itself in various interventions in the Middle East over the past two decades, it is again doing the same now as Washington has found itself bogged down in yet another protracted and unwinnable war. In the meantime, China has funneled considerable expenditure into its military, modernizing its air and ground forces, expanding its naval forces in East Asia to counter the existing U.S. naval presence, and upgrading its strategic and tactical nuclear stockpile and launch systems. Chinese policymakers understand that continued and costly American forays abroad will only tip the balance of power further in Beijing’s favor. China has also taken advantage of the Ukraine war in its foreign policy, steadily increasing its economic relations with Russia and, according to some China experts, possibly supplying Russia with weapons and ammunition in the near future.

The devastating irony of the situation is that the West became embroiled in a war against Russia at the very moment when it should have been cultivating Russia as a counterbalance against the rise of China. Instead, the West has pushed Russia into the waiting arms of Beijing, which has been more than willing to pursue a “friendship with no limits” with a Russia that has every reason to fear a rising China. Nevertheless, instead of a situation where the United States and Russia are working together to contain China, we instead have one where they are effectively fighting a war against each other in Ukraine. The United States has thus set itself up for a confrontation against two great powers, a situation that only naïve optimists believe the United States can win.
Nilay Saiya is an associate professor of public policy and global affairs at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

Rahmat Wadidi is a graduate student in international relations at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Image: Shutterstock.
这话说的,好像是中国让那俩打起来似的
 

rottenmelon

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人力成本上升只是一方面,其实大陆的人才体系比东南亚印度的强多了
但最重要的是 资本更要寻找安全的地区才能持续发展
大陆体制原因不适合了
 

茶马盐铁

我想看看自定义头衔到底能有多少字。继续加,看系统什么时候把这个字符串截断。呃,居然还有?那就继续吧。
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去看看沃尔玛的东西,以前都是中国制造的,现在大部分不是了。是中国劳动力贵了,北美的资本家不愿意降低利润。所以把生产线搬到劳动力便宜的地方去了。动动脑子,去学点经济。
那不是因为西方搬走了生产线,而是中国实现了产业升级,工人们有了更好的去出处。
 

茶马盐铁

我想看看自定义头衔到底能有多少字。继续加,看系统什么时候把这个字符串截断。呃,居然还有?那就继续吧。
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人力成本上升只是一方面,其实大陆的人才体系比东南亚印度的强多了
但最重要的是 资本更要寻找安全的地区才能持续发展
大陆体制原因不适合了
这就乱说了。

这些年,纵观全球,没有比中国更安全的地方了吧
 

春夏秋鼕

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印度从大鹅买了巨多便宜石油,部分还是用印度币结算的,真谦虚啊
 

MAP2012

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人力成本上升只是一方面,其实大陆的人才体系比东南亚印度的强多了
但最重要的是 资本更要寻找安全的地区才能持续发展
大陆体制原因不适合了
这40年,体制变了吗?:tx:
 

贵圈

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2023 年4 月以人民币计价出口同比增速16.8%,与我们预测的17%较为接近,延续强势表现;结构层面,1-4 月,机电产品同比增长10.5%,占出口总值57.9%,劳动密集型产品同比增长8.8%。
对 上山下乡

上了机电的山,下了电车的乡。
 

贵圈

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中国问题不是经济不行,更不是出口不行, 这两样都强的不行了。

中国问题是转型基本成功, 不过代价出来了,转型后,失业率,贫富分化攀升。

这个要看习近平是想将前用于备战,还是会用于基建了?

后者将刺激中低端劳动力市场。使得人民恢复消费意愿,带动内需,从而点燃内需引擎。

现在太卷了。
 
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