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咋整？扒黑，鹅岭，纳塔人民无蹄儿可乘啊。
蹄子三期还缺65亿
- 主题发起人 Jay Wang
- 开始时间
咋整？扒黑，鹅岭，纳塔人民无蹄儿可乘啊。
metropolis
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LRT Stage 3 is at risk. How can Ottawa get it back on the rails?
Local councillors say $6.5 billion expansion isn't gone for good, but it is a long way off
Elyse Skura · CBC News · Posted: Sep 23, 2023 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 1 hour ago
The latest long-range financial plan for the City of Ottawa suggests the Stage 3 LRT expansion won't be an affordable option for at least the next 25 years. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)
Building the final planned extension to Ottawa's troubled light-rail transit system is no longer an affordable option, at least for the next 25 years. That statement — one of many dire pronouncements from the city's recent update to transit's long-term financial plan — was sobering.
But experts and local representatives say it should not come as a surprise.
The Stage 3 plan involves extending light-rail transit infrastructure into some of Ottawa's fastest growing communities: Kanata, Stittsville and Barrhaven.
- OC Transpo financials 'much worse' than expected
- Premier wary of funding Stage 3 LRT amid system shutdown
That's more than the last publicly available estimates of $3.5 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively.
None will come from city coffers. From the very beginning, staff have said it must be completely financed by 50-50 contributions from the provincial and federal governments.
"It's so that it can be affordable for the city," explained Gower, who represents Stittsville. "And that's different than Stage 1 and Stage 2, where the city contributed just over a third of the budget."
Stage 3 would see LRT extended into Kanata, Stittsville and Barrhaven. (City of Ottawa)
Now eight years from the city's original planned opening date, there have been no financial commitments, and a warning from Premier Doug Ford that Ottawa won't see any money until it solves its train problems — which have seen derailments, delays and an overall lack of transparency combine to erode public confidence.
Transit experts say the expansion may be politically necessary, but it doesn't make financial sense.
Long-promised service faces uncertain future
At this point, the environmental assessment for the infrastructure project is done, with the corridor and station plans completed. But Gower and other councillors emphasize there's still ample time to persuade governments to sign on."The discussion is probably not going to start for at least another year or two," said Barrhaven East Coun. Wilson Lo, at which point the city might be dealing with a different government at Parliament Hill.
That will provide time for the city — and municipalities across the country — to sharpen their arguments, said Gower.
"I think we have a really good justification," he said. "Transit is essential to the economy … Stage 2 and Stage 3 is about opening up new land for housing."
Barrhaven was initially expected to be among the first Ottawa communities to have access to light-rail transit, but in 2006, the council under then-mayor Larry O'Brien, opted to cancel a $778-million contract for a southern extension, forcing the city to pay out $37 million to contractors Siemens-PCL/Dufferin.
Barrhaven East Coun. Wilson Lo said people in his ward were once slated to be among the first communities connected to light-rail transit. (Jean Delisle/CBC)
"A lot of residents who bought in this community especially for the original O-Train, they still talk about it," said Lo. "They still talk about how this is the community that was supposed to get LRT first and now we're likely to never get it, or not get in their lifetime."
No 'evidence' of LRT business case, says rail expert
Asked if there might come a time when the city is forced to give up on Stage 3 completely, Gower said "I don't think so."But some outside experts wonder if it's financially viable.
If Ottawa is completely reliant on other levels of government to pay for construction, then UK-based transit consultant Michael Schabas said "it sounds like it's probably not going to happen."
"Canadian cities have got the ability to raise taxes from property and from fares and they should produce a business case that shows that something's worth doing."
The recent financial update emphasized that operating Ottawa's light-rail service is much more costly than initially thought, with the annual cost for operating the Stage 3 expansion now pegged at $64.1 million.
Ridership will increase "only slightly," staff said, by 2.5 per cent or about $5 million a year.
- City has a 'final fix' for the LRT but hasn't ID'd root cause
- 'Egregious violations of public trust': LRT rushed into service, commission finds
"Ottawa had a great bus system," he said. "They picked a system with drivers and infrequent trains, big, long, infrequent trains. And so they've actually probably made transit in Ottawa worse for all the money they spent."
It's "a bit late to do anything about that," he said, suggesting that he sees "no evidence" of a strong business case for expanding the LRT and urging OC Transpo to consider a properly researched and well-financed alternative.
Bus rapid transit an interim solution
Gower, Lo, and Barrhaven West Coun. David Hill all agree that bus rapid transit (BRT) service is enough "for now" —so long as it works."We don't want people who are out in the new developments like on The Ridge and in Quinn's Pointe who have to walk two kilometres to get to their first stop and then have a one-and-a-half hour commute to Carleton," said Hill.
"The short term for LRT Phase 3 is a couple of decades. Let's be clear. I think in the shorter term the need for reliable, safe transit is now. And I don't see why we can't have both."
Transit commission chair Glen Gower said he can't imagine a future where Stage 3 is cancelled. (Jean Delisle/CBC)
Jacob Wasserman, a research project manager at the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies, said providing affordable rapid transit to the suburbs is a challenge that's common to many U.S. and Canadian cities.
Buses can work, but you have to make the system align with light-rail standards.
"So, you have stations instead of just stops. You can pay your fare at the station instead of lining up as you get on the bus. You get priority at traffic lights or even crossing gates," he said.
The problem, he said, is that political pressure often forces compromises like removing segregation and crossings that "eat away and eat away" until a BRT looks almost exactly like ordinary bus service.
He and Hill said the difference in service also creates challenging optics.
"We have been investing significant development charge monies and tax revenues from Barrhaven into transit and we need to see some return on investment," said Hill.
Coun. David Hill, who represents Barrhaven West, said his residents pay for transit and deserve a reliable service. (Jean Delisle/CBC)
Continuing growth weighs on decision
Hill and Lo also suggested that decisions on bus routes have failed to keep up with the pace of Barrhaven's growth.The city is now beginning to consider a new phase of "route optimization" aimed at finding efficiencies in the face of this year's $40 million operating deficit.
Finding ways to bolster the existing rapid transit network would not only help residents, said Lo, it would strengthen a future business case for LRT expansion.
It would also save money.
While bus rapid transit can only handle 9,000 passengers an hour, or half the capacity of light rail, Gower said it can be built quicker at 20 to 30 per cent of the cost.
Eventually, the councillors believe population changes will make the multi-billion dollar expansion the more viable option.
"We need rapid transit in our communities in Kanata, in Stittsville, there's so much growth happening," said Gower. "There is not an option where we don't invest in higher order transit."
Corrections
- A previous version of this story said the east-west extension would cost $4 billion and the Barrhaven extension would cost $2.5 billion. In fact, the east-west extension would cost $2.5 billion and the Barrhaven extension would cost $4 billion.
Sep 23, 2023 10:24 AM ET
metropolis
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好消息是与第1，2期工程不同，第3期不用渥村出钱，安省和联邦政府各出一半，第1，2期，渥太华出了略高于3分之一的资金。
坏消息是省长说，你们不有效地修复现有的各种问题，不再给钱。
你说的那个坏消息其实是好消息
metropolis
本站元老
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阿蹄65亿的第三期延申计划，包括东西线延申至卡屯和奥尔良25亿，南线延申至巴屯40亿，这个计划已经提出了8年，总共比以前的预算高出7亿，至少在未来的25年内负担不起。
英国交通专家认为，市里不出钱，仅靠省和联邦政府出资的计划听起来难以实现。市里拿不出可行的商业报告，运营成本过高。政治上有必要，经济上不现实，有人比喻为购买辆一支法拉利车队接孩子上下学用。
巴屯建阿蹄线路是最早计划的，Larry市长取消了7.78亿的合同，付罚款3700万。巴屯的罗议员说，很多居民在这个社区安家，阿蹄是原因之一，但是他们可能永远不会实现，至少在他们有生之年见不到。
渥太华现在依靠的BRT - Bus Rapid Transit 是很好的公交系统，现在是够用了。阿蹄即使建成，也是几十年以后的事，BRT起码可以起到临时的过度作用，最好是能够两者并存，乘客不希望需要步行2公里才能到达车站，尤其是在寒冷的冬天。BRT 每小时可以运送乘客 9000人，是阿蹄运力的一半，但是可以比阿蹄建成快2，3成，需要建造站台 station 而不仅是 stop，可以在站台是完成购票，有专线行驶，避免交通灯等候延迟时间。
英国交通专家认为，市里不出钱，仅靠省和联邦政府出资的计划听起来难以实现。市里拿不出可行的商业报告，运营成本过高。政治上有必要，经济上不现实，有人比喻为购买辆一支法拉利车队接孩子上下学用。
巴屯建阿蹄线路是最早计划的，Larry市长取消了7.78亿的合同，付罚款3700万。巴屯的罗议员说，很多居民在这个社区安家，阿蹄是原因之一，但是他们可能永远不会实现，至少在他们有生之年见不到。
渥太华现在依靠的BRT - Bus Rapid Transit 是很好的公交系统，现在是够用了。阿蹄即使建成，也是几十年以后的事，BRT起码可以起到临时的过度作用，最好是能够两者并存，乘客不希望需要步行2公里才能到达车站，尤其是在寒冷的冬天。BRT 每小时可以运送乘客 9000人，是阿蹄运力的一半，但是可以比阿蹄建成快2，3成，需要建造站台 station 而不仅是 stop，可以在站台是完成购票，有专线行驶，避免交通灯等候延迟时间。
metropolis
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Fontaine Bleu
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查出一二期问题上的渎职行为，学习北欧的lrt的经验，而不是南欧或者其他比渥太华暖的地方
chicago666
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伪命题，拿大想做的事，钱不是问题。乌克兰那么多钱都给了
加拿大为什么每有这个选择权？地铁也不是什么敏感项目，连美国自己有的城市都是中国大陆生产的地铁。
就是钱的问题，土豆最近在外面洒的钱怎么也几百上千亿吧，当然没钱给太华修地铁拉。
