十月CPI 2%；九月CPI 1.6%； 八月CPI 2%；七月CPI 2.5%；六月份CPI 2.7%；五月份 CPI 2.9%；四月份CPI 2.7%

[ASSISTANT]

油价，通货膨胀都是鹅乌战争惹出来的

两年了。终于看到有人意识到这点

 

[肥猫]

" CPI负增长" is miswording! 不是负增长, 应该是(同比)增长减缓. 仍在增长.

月度环比经季节调整CPI下降0.1%。“On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in October, following a 0.1% decline in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1%.”

 

[贾和平]

月度环比经季节调整CPI下降0.1%。“On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in October, following a 0.1% decline in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1%.”

The differences between disinflation and deflation. CPI fell 0.1% is CPI ease, deceleration in comparison, not " 负增长!

 

[肥猫]

The differences between disinflation and deflation. CPI fell 0.1% is CPI ease, deceleration in comparison, not " 负增长!

Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below zero, and prices generally decline throughout an economy. Disinflation is what happens when the inflation rate falls but remains positive.

So Canada is in deflation in October.

 

[ottawa_tj]

十一月份通胀率3.1%

The Daily — Consumer Price Index, November 2023

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in November, matching the 3.1% increase in October. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in November.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

 

[贵圈]

PMI

 

[贵圈]

CPI和PMI一起看。还是双痛苦。

 

[肥猫]

十一月份通胀率3.1%

The Daily — Consumer Price Index, November 2023

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in November, matching the 3.1% increase in October. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in November.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

与预测一致，土豆又立功了。这一年他立功都立麻了。

 

[ottawa_tj]

十二月份通胀率又升了，3.4%。

The Daily — Consumer Price Index, December 2023

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 3.1% increase in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in December.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

 

[MAP2012]

十二月份通胀率又升了，3.4%。

The Daily — Consumer Price Index, December 2023

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 3.1% increase in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in December.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

还能降息吗？

 

[贵圈]

CPI和PMI一起看。还是双痛苦。

 

[RareEarth]

两年了。终于看到有人意识到这点

鹅乌战争那时就是原油价格高点，以后一路走低。你只要看原油价格，就是知道鹅乌战争没有多大影响。
通胀最根本的原因，第一是新冠给供应端造成永久性的问题，第二是钞票印多了。

 

[welcomelm]

鹅乌战争那时就是原油价格高点，以后一路走低。你只要看原油价格，就是知道鹅乌战争没有多大影响。
通胀最根本的原因，第一是新冠给供应端造成永久性的问题，第二是钞票印多了。

不是新冠吧，全球产业链在重塑，由于地缘政治风险不断加大，俄乌战争导致西方企业在俄罗斯损失投资10000亿。是该想想，台海打起来，他们在中国要损失多少。

 

[RareEarth]

不是新冠吧，全球产业链在重塑，由于地缘政治风险不断加大，俄乌战争导致西方企业在俄罗斯损失投资10000亿。是该想想，台海打起来，他们在中国要损失多少。

不管如何脑补， 所有的因素都会反映在原材料价格上，原材料价格持续低迷说明商品通胀的阶段早就过去了。
新冠导致退休人口大大超过均值的。现在美加年轻人的劳动参与率都处于历史上的高水平。劳动力短缺造成的服务业通胀将长期持续。
过去 3年米国的国债增加了 8 万亿。很大一部分是直接发给老百姓消费。这种财政扩张会直接推动通胀。

 

[chatbot]

西方经济学家对于通胀的目标是保持2%，长久以来也保持得不错。近年来，新冠加鹅乌战争把原来的平衡打破了，估计要很多年才会稳定下来，而且还不一定是在2%这个level，或许3%才合理。