不光是缺人手,更大的问题是缺可以做决定的人,气象部门这种能力是长期训练的结果,不是临时三刻找个人就能顶上的。换句话说,你莫名其妙把能做这个事儿的人裁了,现在这就是后果。
另外一个方面,不仅砍人,还砍科研经费,如何研发新的预测技术?
Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the NWS employees’ union, told CNN that the Austin-San Antonio office is missing a warning coordination meteorologist — a role that serves as a crucial, direct link between forecasters and emergency managers. This vacancy in the Austin-San Antonio office, along with other key roles, were the result of early retirement incentives offered by the Trump administration to shrink the size of the federal government, a NOAA official told CNN. Several NWS offices around the country are worse off than San Angelo or Austin-San Antionio, working with such thin staffing that they no longer operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Many NWS forecast offices have ceased launching their twice-a-day weather balloons, which provide critical data that can alert forecasters to the potential for flooding and other hazardous weather.
The Kerr County tragedy also shines a spotlight on the limitations of current forecasting technology: It is simply not yet possible to predict that a cluster of thunderstorms dumping months’ worth of rain would stall out over a specific spot. Research efforts to find answers to these forecasting questions could soon slip backwards, experts warn, if the Trump administration’s 2026 budget proposal is enacted — just as the country needs to push the limits on what weather models are capable of. The budget seeks to eliminate all of NOAA’s weather and climate research labs along with institutes jointly run with universities around the country. The entire research division of NOAA would be eliminated under the proposal, which is subject to congressional approval. This would shut down research and development of new forecasting technologies, including computer modeling and severe weather warning scenarios, and hamper prediction of hazards including flash floods.