渥太华的房价已经跌了,不是涨了

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有几个关于房价的帖子实在太长,不易浏览,故另辟新帖。

首先,中国人所说的涨跌是指最近的价格变动. 如一个鸡蛋现在是19分,而一两个月以前是20分,我们就说鸡蛋的价格最近跌了.而如果鸡蛋的价格在一两年以前是17或18分,我们说的是比一两年以前涨了.如果你不加范围的比较,比二三十年以前肯定是涨了,谁明白你说的是什么呢. 所以,国内发明了一些"同比", “环比”等词。

其次,最近这三个月渥太华的房价报导都是量价齐跌,而且是大跌。不同的报纸(后面是不同的利益团体)用的是不同的题目,这只能忽悠那些粗心人或本地的阅读恐惧症患者。下面文章里的数字非常明显。2008年的平均房价是 $289,766,最高价是在六月份,是 $298,484。此后一路下跌,但一直比去年同期还是涨的,但是,到十二月,已经跌到$272,192, 比2007年的12月还低1.2%。短短的五六个月已跌去两万六千多,至少跌去8%,岂不是大跌。跌8%的题目竟然写成“涨6,3%”,民不可愚呀。更避而不谈量的大跌。

还有,有人说,买房用的是首付25%(杠杆),投资小,收益大。房子涨25%,收益就是100%。那房子跌了10%,收益是多少呢?当然,你太有钱了(像老赖),那是例外。有多套房子在手里的,也是例外。

Home sales slip in 2008, prices up 6.3%

Ottawa market retains underlying confidence despite national, international concerns

By Paula McCooey, The Ottawa CitizenJanuary 7, 2009

Real estate sales were down sharply in Ottawa in 2008, but prices are expected to remain strong and steady throughout 2009.
The Ottawa Real Estate board reported 467 residential units sold in December, a decrease of 18.8 per cent compared to the same month in 2007, when there were 575 units sold.
During the year, 13,733 properties were sold, a 5.7-per-cent drop from a record-setting 14,565 in 2007. However, the average price for residential properties, including condominiums, for 2008 was $289,766, an increase of 6.3 per cent over 2007.
"We are seeing the effect of consumer concerns about the national and international economy reflected in the Ottawa market, but the fact that the average sale price is fairly stable shows the underlying confidence in the local marketplace," said board president Rick Snell.
Mr. Snell added that Ottawa's resale housing market is still in "fairly good shape" compared to many areas of Canada, due to the strong job market related to the government sector.
One segment that had a notable drop in December was two-storey homes, with 209 sales, a decline of 17.4 per cent from December 2007.
Two-storey condominiums took an even bigger hit with a 21.5-per-cent drop -- or 51 sales in 2008 compared to 65 the same month the year prior.
The average price of residential properties sold in December in the Ottawa area was $272,192, a marginal drop of 1.2 per cent over December 2007.
While some consumers may be reluctant to buy and sell right now, some local brokers believe the fact Ottawa's prices have not fluctuated like those in the West will help jumpstart sales.
"Ottawa has not seen the exuberant increases over the past couple of years that other markets, such as Calgary and Edmonton, have experienced," said Pierre de Varennes, Ottawa Royal LePage broker/owner. "Ottawa's house price appreciation trend is more sustainable and shelters the city from the nervousness and negative fluctuations felt in other areas of the country."
Mr. de Varennes added that competitive interest rates will also likely "open many doors" this year for buyers and investors who may have been reluctant in 2008.
 
http://www.canadian-housing-price-charts.235.ca/

Deleted because the table can't be displayed correctly.
This original info can be found at the above link or the following post.

 
渥太华的房价已经跌了,不是涨了

I think so too.
 
Thank you for clarify.

Home price is forecast to decline eight per cent, 8%, more in 2009 in Canada. Ontario will be harder hit, drop more, than other province.

This is from a report of CREA, Canadian Real Estate Association, a definite 利益团体 of real estate industry, this week.

If a 利益团体 like CREA make public of 8%, you know it is going to be more.

It used terms like eight per cent to 忽悠那些粗心 as you suggested.

The original report was here, http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/crea_forecast_feb09.pdf. Very soon, CREA will no longer issue forecast.

The downturn just began as many of you just noticed, it will take no less than 2 years before the market stabilized. Look at US, UK, Spain, China, Japan. Look, look, look.

one last word, Canadian personal bankruptcy rate gone up by 50% in December 2008 compare to December of 2007.
 
上面贴的一个表格无法阅读,现改为图片。也有链接:Welcome ~ Canadian Housing Price Charts and Real Estate Valuator Blog

略加声明,本人无房可租售,又无房要买,也无需升级之嫌。现居于2001年自置屋,有2700呎,4卧室供3口之小家。
但本人认为,相比于2000年房价还是太高了,因为收入并没有很大的提高。对于新移民或新新移民,甚为不公。一个自由的市场最终会把价格调整到趋向合理。
我确实有几个朋友近几年刚迁到渥村,属于中产阶级,准备买房,但都颇感吃力。这也应该是房价须要下调的一个内因。祝愿他们能于今年或明年乔迁新居。
 

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上面贴的一个表格无法阅读,现改为图片。也有链接:Welcome ~ Canadian Housing Price Charts and Real Estate Valuator Blog

略加声明,本人无房可租售,又无房要买,也无需升级之嫌。现居于2001年自置屋,有2700呎,4卧室供3口之小家。
但本人认为,相比于2000年房价还是太高了,因为收入并没有很大的提高。对于新移民或新新移民,甚为不公。一个自由的市场最终会把价格调整到趋向合理。
我确实有几个朋友近几年刚迁到渥村,属于中产阶级,准备买房,但都颇感吃力。这也应该是房价须要下调的一个内因。祝愿他们能于今年或明年乔迁新居。

着实有理!:cool:
 
根据CREA报告, 和2001年比较, 房价大涨, 和2007年12月比较, 房价轻微下调1.2%, 从长远(例如, 5年期)来看, 房价还是会涨上去.

http://bbs.comefromchina.com/forum79/thread665114.html

住房产业今年1月份下降11%, 住房开工比去年下降40%.

盖了100套,计划卖出100套, 供求平衡.现在卖了89套(下降11%,), 然后就只盖60套(下降40%), 如果市场依然需求89套, 就会供不应求. 看来开发商利用减产来提高房价.
 
刺激经济的计划一定会带来通货膨胀的,哪怕通货膨胀的程度被控制在不是很高的水
平,投资在房子上也比投资在其它方面,或者存在银行里合算的多。最近我的几个
本地人同事都在看投资房准备买了出租。他们都是从小在渥太华长大目前年龄50
多的。这样做肯定有道理吧。
很多统计数据是用成交价格的中值,经济不好时高端房产价格会下跌或者成交量大
幅度减少,所以拉低了成交价格的中值。中低价位的房子估计影响不大吧。
 
投资者,肯定在经济恶化的形势下,买物业。搞其他投资,风险肯定过高。
 
明白了

跌了也是涨了,反正就是涨了。
涨了跌了就是该买了,不买了,你的钱就没了。

我本想列出点数据,给一些中产阶级,有钱又不是很有钱,要买房有点犹豫的朋友看的。没想到被几位中介,或特有钱的爆发户(渥太华也出?)看到。当然对我们这些中产是很不以为然的了。但还是请你别闲着,忙着去买你的房子吧,否则,明天又涨了,后天又涨了。三个月以后回头一看,买晚了亏了一大笔呢。所以,地主(Lanlord 好像是这么翻译的),你走吧,你走好。

Sorry for the bad mood.
 
To those who are not landlord:
Some people are considering this bad time as a recession.
But this will be a depression. There are some fundamental differences between recession and depression. If you are thinking about Nortel or some local impacts only, then you are very likely to be wrong.
The depression 2.0 just started.
The depression 1.0 has lasted more than 12 years. How long will it take for the whole 2.x release? Nobody knows.
What will be tested? Everybody and all the markets.
 
搬来这么多中产,这房价能跌才怪呢

说明房子供不应求导致房价过去几年节节上升.

某著名企业从2000年以来从近2万名员工减少到2009年大约4千名员工,房价却节节上升, 说明该著名企业缩减生产规模对房价毫无影响,反倒有提升房价的作用.

当然自2001年以来, 房屋租金几乎一成不变. Bayshore附近的Apartment一室一厅的2009年的房屋租金和2000年的房屋租金几乎不变. 但是Bayshore附近的房价却一路攀升.

认识的几位有房的朋友搬往其他城市发展,他们并没有出售房子,而是选择委托中介将他们的房子出租. 也许这就是近10年房价节节上升, 而房租却原地踏步的原因.

因搬迁可能卖房的业主选择将房屋出租, 这样一来, 市场上买房就可能多于卖房或者大抵持平. 在这种情况下, 房地产商对房价就会起决定性的作用. 新房的价格将会对未来房价的走向起到根本性的影响. 近几年,很多人投资房产,很多新房动工,导致盖房原材料价格飞涨. 房地产商不会作亏本生意, 最终导致房价大幅上涨. 现在金融危机来了, 房产投资减少, 新房动工减少, 原材料价格应该会缓慢下跌, 房地产商的成本下降, 应该会对新房的价格作出适当调整.

总而言之, 新房价格取决于盖房原材料价格和购房需求.
盖房原材料价格上涨或者购房需求增加,都会导致新房价格上涨.
盖房原材料价格和购房需求必须同时下跌,才会导致新房价格下跌, 因为房地产商不会盖无利可图的房子.
购房需求下跌, 新房动工减少, 原材料价格应该会下跌,最终房地产商就可能下调新房价格.
新房价格一旦下调,大部分二手房价格就会跟着下调.

未来几个月, 盖房原材料价格会不会下跌呢? 只能由市场来决定.
如果盖房原材料价格真的下跌了, 房地产商的成本就下降, 房地产商会不会下调新房价格呢?还是由市场来决定.
 
今年一月的二手房价比去年一月涨了 1.5%
新房涨得跟多。
 
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