预测只是一种猜测，一种可能性趋势。
房价在短期（几个月到一年多的时间）内下降是肯定的了，但究竟会下降多少呢？
希望你能举出推测的前因后果。（遵守公共道德，不要乱扔“垃圾”。）
个人认为,20% -40% 之间, 也就是30%左右最有可能. 当然有很多条件和因素都会改变房价的走向.
1. Unemployment rate. A lot of people is talking about the government employment, but the affect of government is always very limited in a economic recession in the history. The "unemployment" wind will reach the capital region soon if the price of oil and metal kept as current low for another several months. The only hope for Canada is that the price of oil and metal will go back to high enough in 6 months, otherwise the unemployment rate will be 8% in Ottawa. There is no hope for US and most of Europeans countries so far.
2. Cost & supply. The price of a new house has increased from 200K to 400K in about 9 to 10 years. But the cost of building a house has not changed so much and the average house income has not increased a little. There must be an adjustment for the "over heat". I guess the price will go back to about 280k based on the price of Hull. The market of the crossing river is less "over heat" and more reasonable. The builders will continue to build new houses if the price makes sense because they can still make money(maybe still a lot) on it. So, we don't need worry about the supply.
3. Foreclosure. Some owner (none Chinese!) will enter into foreclosure if it they lost their jobs and they have bought very expensive house in the last two or three years. (more to be added). This activity will add a lot of used houses into the inventory and accelerate the price dropping.
4. Inflation. The mortgage rate is so low that nobody can imagine that it can reach 7%, 10%, 15% or more in a few years. Look back the history chat, the average is 7%. Also the inflation is inevitable almost based on the current circumstance and the historical analysis. Do you know what a 8% mortgage rate means? It is a double of 4% and the monthly payment will be increased dramatically.
5. The real Depression. All my assumption is based on that now we are entering into a depression and at the beginning of the depression. I hope my assumption is wrong, but more and more evidences are coming out.
Wait to see.
（打字太累，我的慢慢补充。）
房价在短期（几个月到一年多的时间）内下降是肯定的了，但究竟会下降多少呢？
希望你能举出推测的前因后果。（遵守公共道德，不要乱扔“垃圾”。）
个人认为,20% -40% 之间, 也就是30%左右最有可能. 当然有很多条件和因素都会改变房价的走向.
1. Unemployment rate. A lot of people is talking about the government employment, but the affect of government is always very limited in a economic recession in the history. The "unemployment" wind will reach the capital region soon if the price of oil and metal kept as current low for another several months. The only hope for Canada is that the price of oil and metal will go back to high enough in 6 months, otherwise the unemployment rate will be 8% in Ottawa. There is no hope for US and most of Europeans countries so far.
2. Cost & supply. The price of a new house has increased from 200K to 400K in about 9 to 10 years. But the cost of building a house has not changed so much and the average house income has not increased a little. There must be an adjustment for the "over heat". I guess the price will go back to about 280k based on the price of Hull. The market of the crossing river is less "over heat" and more reasonable. The builders will continue to build new houses if the price makes sense because they can still make money(maybe still a lot) on it. So, we don't need worry about the supply.
3. Foreclosure. Some owner (none Chinese!) will enter into foreclosure if it they lost their jobs and they have bought very expensive house in the last two or three years. (more to be added). This activity will add a lot of used houses into the inventory and accelerate the price dropping.
4. Inflation. The mortgage rate is so low that nobody can imagine that it can reach 7%, 10%, 15% or more in a few years. Look back the history chat, the average is 7%. Also the inflation is inevitable almost based on the current circumstance and the historical analysis. Do you know what a 8% mortgage rate means? It is a double of 4% and the monthly payment will be increased dramatically.
5. The real Depression. All my assumption is based on that now we are entering into a depression and at the beginning of the depression. I hope my assumption is wrong, but more and more evidences are coming out.
Wait to see.
（打字太累，我的慢慢补充。）
