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GG would invite NDP, Libs to form government if Tories defeated on SFT: Ned Franks
If the Conservatives win a minority government on Oct. 19 and the opposition parties decide to defeat the government on the Throne Speech, Governor General David Johnston would not agree to call another election immediately and would instead invite other parties to form government if they can, experts say.
Mr. Johnston “would not call an election because the Throne Speech is so early in the session that somebody else has the right to try to prove they enjoy the confidence of the House,” said Prof. Ned Franks, a professor emeritus of political science at Queen’s University, in an interview with The Hill Times.
Prof. Franks said that regardless of the election outcome, Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Heritage, Alta.) would have the first right to form government. But if he fails to win the confidence of the House, Mr. Johnston, a former professor of securities regulation, information technology and corporate law would invite the other parties to seek the confidence of the House before agreeing to call another election.
“If Harper is returned with a minority or a majority or even if he has lost clearly, he’s still entitled to meet the House of Commons,” said Prof. Franks.
Most public opinion polls have been showing the Conservatives, New Democrats and Liberals locked in a tight, three-way contest. And if the governing Conservatives fail to dramatically increase their support before election day, they’re highly unlikely to win the required 170 seats for a majority government in the 338-seat House.
To continue governing without a majority, the Conservatives would need the support of at least one major federal party, but both the NDP and Liberal leaders have said they would not support the Conservatives.
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) told reporters last week that there “isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell” that his caucus would prop up a Conservative-led minority government.
“I think that anybody who has attended a single Question Period over the course of the last several years would be able to tell you that there is no likelihood that the NDP would ever, under any circumstance, be able to support Mr. Harper,” Mr. Mulcair told reporters last week.
Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) echoed that view.
“There are no circumstances in which I would support Stephen Harper to continue being prime minister of this country,” Mr.Trudeau told reporters in Montreal last week.
The New Democrats have expressed interest in forming a coalition government with the Liberals but the Liberals have rebuffed the offer. But Mr. Trudeau has not ruled out the possibility of working with the NDP without forming an official coalition in case no party emerges as a clear winner on Oct. 19.
“One of the nice things about elections is that it is Canadians who get to decide who sits in their Parliament, and the Liberal Party has always been open in minority situations to working with other members of the House to pass legislation that serves Canadians,” said Mr. Trudeau in Montreal last week.
Contrary to the opinion of most constitutional scholars, Prime Minister Harper has said in media interviews before and during the campaign that the party that wins the most seats has the right to form government.
Because of the close polling numbers, the possibility of a minority government and who would support whom has become a hot topic among politicos, especially in the nation’s capital. Depending on the election outcome, political parties could face a number of minority government scenarios.
One of the key reasons political parties are reticent about making any firm commitment on how they would operate in a minority government is that they would want to have a clear idea about how many seats each party wins and don’t want to prejudge the election outcome.
The ruling minority party would also have a number of political tools at its disposal to entice the support of opposition parties or to invite individual MPs from other parties to cross the floor.
In the 2004 minority government, Paul Martin’s Liberals successfully wooed then-deputy Conservative leader Belinda Stronach to join their party and save the government in a crucial confidence vote. And right after the 2006 federal election, the Conservatives convinced Liberal MP David Emerson to join their party. Not surprisingly, both Ms. Stronach and Mr. Emerson were included in the Martin and Harper Cabinets.
University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman told The Hill Times that he does not expect another federal election for at least 18 months, because Canadians would react negatively against any political party that tried to trigger one. He also pointed out that after a lengthy election campaign, most political parties will not have enough money to run another one.
“They don’t have the money, the public doesn’t want it, they will be exhausted and whoever triggers it is going to get punished,” said Prof. Wiseman.
In the current election campaign, the spending limit for a political party that runs candidates in all 338 ridings is around $50-million. Based on the publicly available fundraising numbers for the national parties, only the Conservatives appear to have enough money in the bank to spend to the maximum limit without borrowing money from financial institutions.
After the campaign, political parties receive 50 per cent of their money back and individual candidates get 60 per cent from Elections Canada. This means only the Conservatives would likely have adequate funding to run another 37-day campaign right after the Oct. 19 election.
In last week’s interview, Prof. Wiseman also disagreed with Mr. Harper that the party with the most seats has the right to form government and “losers don’t get to form coalitions.” To back up his point, he referred The Hill Times to a quote by the Governor General: “I think that most jurisdictions that have a system of first-past-the-post or proportional representation will from time to time have coalitions or amalgamation of different parties,” said Mr. Johnston just months after taking office in 2010, “and that’s the way democracy sorts itself out.”
Editor's note: This story originally and incorrectly reported that David Johnston used to teach constitutional law. Mr. Johnston specialized in securities regulation, information technology and corporate law. The story has been updated and corrected.
arana@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
GG would invite NDP, Libs to form government if Tories defeated on SFT: Ned Franks
If the Conservatives win a minority government on Oct. 19 and the opposition parties decide to defeat the government on the Throne Speech, Governor General David Johnston would not agree to call another election immediately and would instead invite other parties to form government if they can, experts say.
Mr. Johnston “would not call an election because the Throne Speech is so early in the session that somebody else has the right to try to prove they enjoy the confidence of the House,” said Prof. Ned Franks, a professor emeritus of political science at Queen’s University, in an interview with The Hill Times.
Prof. Franks said that regardless of the election outcome, Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Heritage, Alta.) would have the first right to form government. But if he fails to win the confidence of the House, Mr. Johnston, a former professor of securities regulation, information technology and corporate law would invite the other parties to seek the confidence of the House before agreeing to call another election.
“If Harper is returned with a minority or a majority or even if he has lost clearly, he’s still entitled to meet the House of Commons,” said Prof. Franks.
Most public opinion polls have been showing the Conservatives, New Democrats and Liberals locked in a tight, three-way contest. And if the governing Conservatives fail to dramatically increase their support before election day, they’re highly unlikely to win the required 170 seats for a majority government in the 338-seat House.
To continue governing without a majority, the Conservatives would need the support of at least one major federal party, but both the NDP and Liberal leaders have said they would not support the Conservatives.
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) told reporters last week that there “isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell” that his caucus would prop up a Conservative-led minority government.
“I think that anybody who has attended a single Question Period over the course of the last several years would be able to tell you that there is no likelihood that the NDP would ever, under any circumstance, be able to support Mr. Harper,” Mr. Mulcair told reporters last week.
Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) echoed that view.
“There are no circumstances in which I would support Stephen Harper to continue being prime minister of this country,” Mr.Trudeau told reporters in Montreal last week.
The New Democrats have expressed interest in forming a coalition government with the Liberals but the Liberals have rebuffed the offer. But Mr. Trudeau has not ruled out the possibility of working with the NDP without forming an official coalition in case no party emerges as a clear winner on Oct. 19.
“One of the nice things about elections is that it is Canadians who get to decide who sits in their Parliament, and the Liberal Party has always been open in minority situations to working with other members of the House to pass legislation that serves Canadians,” said Mr. Trudeau in Montreal last week.
Contrary to the opinion of most constitutional scholars, Prime Minister Harper has said in media interviews before and during the campaign that the party that wins the most seats has the right to form government.
Because of the close polling numbers, the possibility of a minority government and who would support whom has become a hot topic among politicos, especially in the nation’s capital. Depending on the election outcome, political parties could face a number of minority government scenarios.
One of the key reasons political parties are reticent about making any firm commitment on how they would operate in a minority government is that they would want to have a clear idea about how many seats each party wins and don’t want to prejudge the election outcome.
The ruling minority party would also have a number of political tools at its disposal to entice the support of opposition parties or to invite individual MPs from other parties to cross the floor.
In the 2004 minority government, Paul Martin’s Liberals successfully wooed then-deputy Conservative leader Belinda Stronach to join their party and save the government in a crucial confidence vote. And right after the 2006 federal election, the Conservatives convinced Liberal MP David Emerson to join their party. Not surprisingly, both Ms. Stronach and Mr. Emerson were included in the Martin and Harper Cabinets.
University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman told The Hill Times that he does not expect another federal election for at least 18 months, because Canadians would react negatively against any political party that tried to trigger one. He also pointed out that after a lengthy election campaign, most political parties will not have enough money to run another one.
“They don’t have the money, the public doesn’t want it, they will be exhausted and whoever triggers it is going to get punished,” said Prof. Wiseman.
In the current election campaign, the spending limit for a political party that runs candidates in all 338 ridings is around $50-million. Based on the publicly available fundraising numbers for the national parties, only the Conservatives appear to have enough money in the bank to spend to the maximum limit without borrowing money from financial institutions.
After the campaign, political parties receive 50 per cent of their money back and individual candidates get 60 per cent from Elections Canada. This means only the Conservatives would likely have adequate funding to run another 37-day campaign right after the Oct. 19 election.
In last week’s interview, Prof. Wiseman also disagreed with Mr. Harper that the party with the most seats has the right to form government and “losers don’t get to form coalitions.” To back up his point, he referred The Hill Times to a quote by the Governor General: “I think that most jurisdictions that have a system of first-past-the-post or proportional representation will from time to time have coalitions or amalgamation of different parties,” said Mr. Johnston just months after taking office in 2010, “and that’s the way democracy sorts itself out.”
Editor's note: This story originally and incorrectly reported that David Johnston used to teach constitutional law. Mr. Johnston specialized in securities regulation, information technology and corporate law. The story has been updated and corrected.
arana@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
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