[问题] 投资点房地产做出租?
- 主题发起人 LoveBaby
- 开始时间
Yes, 25 years late, you own the house. But wait, see how much you have put into this house. It is 50,000 down payment plus 108,354 for mortgage principal not covered by rental income. These figures are all from your own pocket.
The final rental income could be contributed to the house is only 41,646. Put another way, you spend 158,354 in the house investment and you get 200,000 return in 25 years. How much return do you get for every year? 
You are right. I did not count in those good things. Maybe I thought that the house price has increased too much for the past few years. Since more and more people own houses, it is tougher for a landlord to rent out his property with ideal price. Nevertheless, I am too conservative. Let me polish my data with all those nice things listed by you. Here what it could turn to be:
House value in 25 years = 200,000 * ( 1*1.03**24 ) = 200,000 * 2.032794 = 406559
Rental Income = 1,200 * ( 12-1) * ( 1 + 1*1.03 + 1*1.03*1.03 + .... + 1*1.03**24 ) = 1,200 *11* 35.45926 = 468,062
Margin for 25 years = 468,062 - ( 113,067 + 26,594 + 89,685 + 59,008 ) = 468,062 - 288,354 = 179,708
Margin left after being deducted from principal = 179,708 ? 150,000 = 29,708
25 Years Return rate = (29,708+406,559)/50,000 = 436267/50,000=872.534%
Yearly Return Rate = 9.45%
It is not bad anymore, isn’t it?
win98:我也有点被你搞晕了。一开始，我豪情万丈，结果被你几个提醒搞得有点心灰
意冷了。参考了大家的观点，仔细的算了一下。当然，计算上有不周到的地方，这
也是希望大家能仁者见仁，智者见智，共同完善。这样才更有说服力。其实，我算
的帐一点不复杂，都是各位DX劳动的再加工。
你所说的0 return，我猜是指付完monthly pay，没有再多的结余吧。至於，房子是
否一直看涨，涨幅多少，只有市场才知道。有两点想提醒一下：
(1) 一个20万的房子，5万的downpayment，25年的term: 银行的Mortgage Interest就
要十几万，从你身上白刮去啊。
(2) 一旦你通过出租房子来养房，那么，到你卖出房子所得的capital gain是要交
税的。5万放银行，Long term fix rate if at 3%, 25年后，5万也变成十万多。
All my purpose for this post is to compare the return rate between investing
in the real estate with other fields. It is for sure that we could get
some return, but is it the highest? Can we manage the risk? Hopefully,
everyone has got some idea for this topic.
CFA
新手上路
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在以上所有的计算中都忽略了Money的time value. 今天的1$和1年以后,2年,....25年以后的1$是不可直接相比的.所以正确的算法是把每年的cash flows discounted to time 0, 然后再进行比较.项目的收益率(IRR)应该是使discounted net cash flows=0的那个discount rate.如果收益率低于其它投资手段的回报率(比如债券,存款,等等),那还不如投到其它项目.在所有影响收益率的因素中,最终的房价应该是起到很大作用的.
LoveBaby,请你再从新算一边,好吗?
LoveBaby,请你再从新算一边,好吗?
Hi 白水: Thank you for contribution to my calculation as well! Do not misunderstand the way I do the calculation. It is easy for me to count the total amount for 25 years and reverse back to each year. You know, every year, mortgage interest and principal one need to pay get changed. It is hard to trace year by year and in-accurate to give a figure to represent the whole 25 years of period. Are you agree?
Yes, due to inflation. The number one wealth is our healthy body. One could get more hourly pay for the same kind of work 25 years later if one could still keep oneself healthy. Right?
Anyway, getting some knowledge here does not hurt and it is quite fun, isn't it?
CFA
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CFA=Chartered Financial Analyst.
其实这种静态的收益率的计算还是比较straightforward的,它没有考虑利率的随机变动以及yield curve的形状变化,它只是用一个flat curve,比如5%来折现所有的future cash flows.而实际的情况通常是短期利率要比长期利率低,也就是我们常提到的term structure.但作为基本的计算工具已经足够用了.
拿我们这个房子的例子,假设每年的cash flows如下:
0:-50000
1:5000
2:5000
3:5000
...
...
25:5000+300000(最终房价)
那么它的净现值是=
-50000+5000*25+300000=375000吗?
不是.因为没有将未来的现金流折现.假如折现率为5%,那么净现值应为:
-50000+5000/(1.05)^1+5000/(1.05)^2+...+5000/(1.05)^25+300000/(1.05)^25=109060.55
这与未折现前的375000相差很多.
那么内部收益率就是使净现值为0的那个折现率,用我们的例子可以得出大约等于13.14%.如果市场同样风险投资的回抱率为5%,那么这个项目的回报率远远高于5%,这就是个很好的项目.
这只是一个很简单的例子,实际应用时往往要复杂得多,要考虑很多其它的因素,尤其是要作derivatives的估价时,模型往往是很复杂的.
欢迎感兴趣的朋友们来一起讨论.
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