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安省进步保守党领导人竞选: Doug Ford获胜
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Analysis
Why Caroline Mulroney has the most at stake in PC leadership debate
Newcomer to politics takes on Doug Ford, Christine Elliott in this afternoon's debate
By Mike Crawley, CBC News Posted: Feb 15, 2018 6:00 AM ET Last Updated: Feb 15, 2018 1:06 PM ET
Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership candidates Doug Ford, left, Caroline Mulroney and Christine Elliott, right. ( Frank Gunn, Christopher Katsarov, Chris Young/Canadian Press)
There is much more on the line in today's Ontario PC leadership debate than there typically is for such an event.
Caroline Mulroney, Doug Ford, Christine Elliott and Tanya Granic Allen will go head-to-head Thursday afternoon, in the first of only two debates scheduled before Progressive Conservatives begin voting for their new leader on March 2. Granic Allen received the green light to participate in the debate from the party Thursday afternoon.
The lightning-quick timeline of the PC leadership contest and the imminence of an election in June put an added spotlight on this debate.
"As soon as this race is over, the starting gun goes off for the provincial election," said conservative political strategist Jaime Watt, executive chairman of crisis communications firm Navigator. "The proximity of the election heightens everything."
And the candidate who will get the most scrutiny is almost certainly the one who has spent the least time in the public eye.
Ontario PC Party leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney participates in a Q&A at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
"The pressure will be particularly on Caroline Mulroney," said Watt in an interview Wednesday with CBC News. "She knows what she's got to do; she's got to prove herself."
"She's the least seasoned," said Marcel Wieder, president of Aurora Strategy Group, a political communications firm with ties to the Ontario Liberals.
"This will be the first real opportunity for people to see her in a bear-pit situation," said Wieder. "We've already seen her give lacklustre responses to interviews, so no one knows how she's going to respond under fire."
While Mulroney is poised and articulate in conversation, many PCs are questioning how she would fare in the heat of an election campaign debate against Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP leader Andrea Horwath.
"I don't question her intelligence," said a party insider who's supporting Elliott. "But is she ready to lead?"
Ontario PC Party leadership candidate Christine Elliott participates in a question-and-answer session at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa on Saturday, Feb. 10, 2018. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)
Elliott is confident enough in her experience from two previous leadership campaigns and nine years in the Legislature that she is calling on the party to organize two more debates, in northern and southwestern Ontario.
"Christine Elliott has got to show that she's got some energy and enthusiasm, that she really wants this job and that her campaign this time will be different from her campaign the last two times," said Watt, who worked with Elliott on her unsuccessful leadership bids in 2009 and 2015, but is not involved in this campaign.
Ford's style is both well-known and very much his own. His opponents will be hoping for him to say something offensive or controversial that they can use against him, but he showed in debate after debate during his run for the Toronto mayoralty that he was more disciplined than that.
"He's going to have to prove he's low-risk," said Chad Rogers, a partner at public affairs firm Crestview Strategy.
"Doug is going to have to show up and try and calm people down that he doesn't have a time-bomb buried in his recent history," said Rogers, who worked on the Ontario PC election campaign in 2011.
Ontario PC Party leadership candidate Doug Ford participates in a question-and-answer session at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa on Feb. 10, 2018. Ford promised Monday to re-open a debate about the province's sex education program. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
Several party insiders who are not supporting Ford say that he has an early lead in winning over grassroots members. "He's got a clear message and it's working," says one.
The measure of success for Granic Allen — who announced her intention to run earlier this week — will be "to prove she has a serious shot at the leadership and isn't a fringe candidate," Rogers says.
Most leadership contests in Canadian politics last many months and are typically decided by who signs up the most members.
Tanya Granic Allen is running to be leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservatives. (drafttanya.com)
This contest, with the new leader to be declared on March 10, less than three months before voting day, is all about the "winnability" factor. Party members will be looking at Thursday's debate and asking themselves which candidate can finally lead the Tories to victory after four straight election losses.
Why Caroline Mulroney has the most at stake in PC leadership debate
Newcomer to politics takes on Doug Ford, Christine Elliott in this afternoon's debate
By Mike Crawley, CBC News Posted: Feb 15, 2018 6:00 AM ET Last Updated: Feb 15, 2018 1:06 PM ET
Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership candidates Doug Ford, left, Caroline Mulroney and Christine Elliott, right. ( Frank Gunn, Christopher Katsarov, Chris Young/Canadian Press)
There is much more on the line in today's Ontario PC leadership debate than there typically is for such an event.
Caroline Mulroney, Doug Ford, Christine Elliott and Tanya Granic Allen will go head-to-head Thursday afternoon, in the first of only two debates scheduled before Progressive Conservatives begin voting for their new leader on March 2. Granic Allen received the green light to participate in the debate from the party Thursday afternoon.
The lightning-quick timeline of the PC leadership contest and the imminence of an election in June put an added spotlight on this debate.
"As soon as this race is over, the starting gun goes off for the provincial election," said conservative political strategist Jaime Watt, executive chairman of crisis communications firm Navigator. "The proximity of the election heightens everything."
And the candidate who will get the most scrutiny is almost certainly the one who has spent the least time in the public eye.
Ontario PC Party leadership candidate Caroline Mulroney participates in a Q&A at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
"The pressure will be particularly on Caroline Mulroney," said Watt in an interview Wednesday with CBC News. "She knows what she's got to do; she's got to prove herself."
"She's the least seasoned," said Marcel Wieder, president of Aurora Strategy Group, a political communications firm with ties to the Ontario Liberals.
"This will be the first real opportunity for people to see her in a bear-pit situation," said Wieder. "We've already seen her give lacklustre responses to interviews, so no one knows how she's going to respond under fire."
While Mulroney is poised and articulate in conversation, many PCs are questioning how she would fare in the heat of an election campaign debate against Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP leader Andrea Horwath.
"I don't question her intelligence," said a party insider who's supporting Elliott. "But is she ready to lead?"
Ontario PC Party leadership candidate Christine Elliott participates in a question-and-answer session at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa on Saturday, Feb. 10, 2018. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)
Elliott is confident enough in her experience from two previous leadership campaigns and nine years in the Legislature that she is calling on the party to organize two more debates, in northern and southwestern Ontario.
"Christine Elliott has got to show that she's got some energy and enthusiasm, that she really wants this job and that her campaign this time will be different from her campaign the last two times," said Watt, who worked with Elliott on her unsuccessful leadership bids in 2009 and 2015, but is not involved in this campaign.
Ford's style is both well-known and very much his own. His opponents will be hoping for him to say something offensive or controversial that they can use against him, but he showed in debate after debate during his run for the Toronto mayoralty that he was more disciplined than that.
"He's going to have to prove he's low-risk," said Chad Rogers, a partner at public affairs firm Crestview Strategy.
"Doug is going to have to show up and try and calm people down that he doesn't have a time-bomb buried in his recent history," said Rogers, who worked on the Ontario PC election campaign in 2011.
Ontario PC Party leadership candidate Doug Ford participates in a question-and-answer session at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa on Feb. 10, 2018. Ford promised Monday to re-open a debate about the province's sex education program. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
Several party insiders who are not supporting Ford say that he has an early lead in winning over grassroots members. "He's got a clear message and it's working," says one.
The measure of success for Granic Allen — who announced her intention to run earlier this week — will be "to prove she has a serious shot at the leadership and isn't a fringe candidate," Rogers says.
Most leadership contests in Canadian politics last many months and are typically decided by who signs up the most members.
Tanya Granic Allen is running to be leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservatives. (drafttanya.com)
This contest, with the new leader to be declared on March 10, less than three months before voting day, is all about the "winnability" factor. Party members will be looking at Thursday's debate and asking themselves which candidate can finally lead the Tories to victory after four straight election losses.
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Leadership debate leaves viewers guessing what an Ontario PC government would look like
Adam Radwanski
Published February 15, 2018Updated 11 hours ago
The much-anticipated first debate between the three contenders to lead the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario was dominated by a low-profile fourth candidate whose participation was only confirmed the day before.
While Christine Elliott, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney politely recited their talking points and tried not to talk themselves into too much trouble when forced off script, Tanya Granic Allen – an activist against Ontario's new sex education curriculum – displayed a serious chip on her shoulder.
Decrying curriculum that she (falsely) claimed has kids spending their time learning about anal sex, picking a fight with Ms. Elliott over the former MPP's support for transgender rights, proclaiming the Tories' current policy platform dead and saying that corruption "has run this party into the ground," Ms. Granic Allen was a somewhat exhausting presence. But she certainly made the most of her opportunity to set the leadership campaign's tone.
In another party, at another time, it would be tempting to brush that off as a blip – the sort of distraction from more serious business at hand that single-issue candidates have been offering for eons. But for these PCs, it very much spoke to who they are right now – a party lacking not just a leader but a discernible identity, its recent attempts at proving ready for government going up in smoke amid divisive controversies new and long-simmering.
Before his resignation as leader three weeks ago, Patrick Brown made a concerted effort to reclaim the Red Toryism of the PCs' past, promising modest directional change from Ontario's Liberal government and no dabbling in the hot-button issues that have rallied conservative hard-liners (and alienated others) in recent decades. And he made a big show of how he was creating an energetic big-tent party loaded up with lots of new members from a diverse range of communities.
Now, it's turned out the latter claim was so dubious that the Tories are busy scrubbing bogus members and overturning nominations. And if Mr. Brown's moderate policy agenda initially seemed a little more sturdy, Thursday's debate showed just how little it counted for as well.
It wasn't just Ms. Granic Allen setting fire to the platform plan that party officials had spent the better part of two years lovingly crafting, even if she was by far the most gleeful arsonist.
Opposition to the province's updated sex-ed curriculum, the current litmus test for Ontario's social conservatives, is the sort of issue that makes other Tories cringe at the prospect of being labelled prudish or homophobic. But after Mr. Brown finally seemed to have gotten it off the table (after earlier flirting with opposition himself), Ms. Mulroney was the only candidate who would say she'd keep the curriculum in place.
Possibly the positioning on that particular issue could be chalked up somewhat to the fourth candidate's presence, since the second-choice votes of Ms. Granic Allen's supporters could be decisive in a tight race. But that consideration doesn't explain why the candidates were practically tripping over each other during the debate to express their opposition to a carbon tax – probably the single most important element of Mr. Brown's effort to project modernity.
The uniform agreement that they would push back against the federal government's carbon-pricing requirements, possibly with legal action, reflected that Mr. Brown had made compliance party policy in only the most high-level way.
Given that Mr. Brown evidently failed to bring the rank-and-file along as he claimed, this campaign might conceivably serve as a correction. Maybe the next leader could figure out how to craft an agenda that's saleable to the broader electorate without alienating the base. But that would require a level of seriousness that none of the contenders has yet mustered.
It's not just that, as again proved the case Thursday, they have no good answer for how they would do without carbon-tax revenue without forgoing spending priorities. It's also that on most issues they're incapable of distinguishing themselves with specific policy commitments.
Mr. Ford is most obviously guilty on that front, at times displaying a lack of even cursory knowledge of provincial policy, and falling back on boasts about what he and his late brother Rob did at the municipal level. But if Ms. Elliott and Ms. Mulroney at least seemed to know what the current government does, they were mostly hard-pressed to explain what they would do differently.
In fairness, leadership campaigns are often a bit like that. But usually, they're not held three months from a general election that the party has a good chance of winning. In other campaigns, optimists can focus on the selling points of each candidate – Ms. Mulroney's combination of youthfulness and professionalism, Ms. Elliott's experience, Mr. Ford's populism – and figure that their pitch can be fleshed out in the years before going to the general electorate.
Maybe one of those selling points, from whoever emerges from this, will be enough against an unpopular premier. But good luck guessing what a PC government would look like. Amid the chaos, the Ontario PC Party is a void right now. No wonder Ms. Granic Allen was able to step into it, for one day at least.
Ontario PC leadership contenders Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney say they would wait until “the facts” are in before deciding the future of former leader Patrick Brown in the party. Brown resigned amid sexual misconduct claims, which he says are false.
The Canadian Press
Adam Radwanski
Published February 15, 2018Updated 11 hours ago
The much-anticipated first debate between the three contenders to lead the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario was dominated by a low-profile fourth candidate whose participation was only confirmed the day before.
While Christine Elliott, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney politely recited their talking points and tried not to talk themselves into too much trouble when forced off script, Tanya Granic Allen – an activist against Ontario's new sex education curriculum – displayed a serious chip on her shoulder.
Decrying curriculum that she (falsely) claimed has kids spending their time learning about anal sex, picking a fight with Ms. Elliott over the former MPP's support for transgender rights, proclaiming the Tories' current policy platform dead and saying that corruption "has run this party into the ground," Ms. Granic Allen was a somewhat exhausting presence. But she certainly made the most of her opportunity to set the leadership campaign's tone.
In another party, at another time, it would be tempting to brush that off as a blip – the sort of distraction from more serious business at hand that single-issue candidates have been offering for eons. But for these PCs, it very much spoke to who they are right now – a party lacking not just a leader but a discernible identity, its recent attempts at proving ready for government going up in smoke amid divisive controversies new and long-simmering.
Before his resignation as leader three weeks ago, Patrick Brown made a concerted effort to reclaim the Red Toryism of the PCs' past, promising modest directional change from Ontario's Liberal government and no dabbling in the hot-button issues that have rallied conservative hard-liners (and alienated others) in recent decades. And he made a big show of how he was creating an energetic big-tent party loaded up with lots of new members from a diverse range of communities.
Now, it's turned out the latter claim was so dubious that the Tories are busy scrubbing bogus members and overturning nominations. And if Mr. Brown's moderate policy agenda initially seemed a little more sturdy, Thursday's debate showed just how little it counted for as well.
It wasn't just Ms. Granic Allen setting fire to the platform plan that party officials had spent the better part of two years lovingly crafting, even if she was by far the most gleeful arsonist.
Opposition to the province's updated sex-ed curriculum, the current litmus test for Ontario's social conservatives, is the sort of issue that makes other Tories cringe at the prospect of being labelled prudish or homophobic. But after Mr. Brown finally seemed to have gotten it off the table (after earlier flirting with opposition himself), Ms. Mulroney was the only candidate who would say she'd keep the curriculum in place.
Possibly the positioning on that particular issue could be chalked up somewhat to the fourth candidate's presence, since the second-choice votes of Ms. Granic Allen's supporters could be decisive in a tight race. But that consideration doesn't explain why the candidates were practically tripping over each other during the debate to express their opposition to a carbon tax – probably the single most important element of Mr. Brown's effort to project modernity.
The uniform agreement that they would push back against the federal government's carbon-pricing requirements, possibly with legal action, reflected that Mr. Brown had made compliance party policy in only the most high-level way.
Given that Mr. Brown evidently failed to bring the rank-and-file along as he claimed, this campaign might conceivably serve as a correction. Maybe the next leader could figure out how to craft an agenda that's saleable to the broader electorate without alienating the base. But that would require a level of seriousness that none of the contenders has yet mustered.
It's not just that, as again proved the case Thursday, they have no good answer for how they would do without carbon-tax revenue without forgoing spending priorities. It's also that on most issues they're incapable of distinguishing themselves with specific policy commitments.
Mr. Ford is most obviously guilty on that front, at times displaying a lack of even cursory knowledge of provincial policy, and falling back on boasts about what he and his late brother Rob did at the municipal level. But if Ms. Elliott and Ms. Mulroney at least seemed to know what the current government does, they were mostly hard-pressed to explain what they would do differently.
In fairness, leadership campaigns are often a bit like that. But usually, they're not held three months from a general election that the party has a good chance of winning. In other campaigns, optimists can focus on the selling points of each candidate – Ms. Mulroney's combination of youthfulness and professionalism, Ms. Elliott's experience, Mr. Ford's populism – and figure that their pitch can be fleshed out in the years before going to the general electorate.
Maybe one of those selling points, from whoever emerges from this, will be enough against an unpopular premier. But good luck guessing what a PC government would look like. Amid the chaos, the Ontario PC Party is a void right now. No wonder Ms. Granic Allen was able to step into it, for one day at least.
Ontario PC leadership contenders Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney say they would wait until “the facts” are in before deciding the future of former leader Patrick Brown in the party. Brown resigned amid sexual misconduct claims, which he says are false.
The Canadian Press
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难道比现在的省长Wynne 更吓人？
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