安省进步保守党领导人竞选: Doug Ford获胜
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The Pollcast: Breaking down the Ontario PC leadership race
Host Éric Grenier is joined by Conservative insider Chad Rogers
CBC News Posted: Feb 15, 2018 5:31 PM ET Last Updated: Feb 15, 2018 5:31 PM ET
Caroline Mulroney is one of four registered candidates for the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leadership, along with Tanya Allen, Christine Elliott and Doug Ford. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
With little more than three weeks to go before the Ontario Progressive Conservatives choose their next leader, there isn't much time for the candidates to make an impression on party members — or for anyone to quite pin down who has the best chance of winning on March 10.
A lot of factors are at play, including who signs up the most new members in a short timeframe, what the pre-existing membership thinks about the candidates and how the preferential ballot will affect the count.
So far, four candidates are running: Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney. The cut-off for entering the race — and registering as a member able to vote — is Friday.
Mulroney and Elliott both have a long list of endorsements behind them, including MPPs, MPs and nominated candidates. On Thursday, Mulroney boasted that she has raised $486,000. That puts her well ahead of the $70,000 that Ford said he had raised as of Wednesday.
But with a preferential ballot, equally-weighted ridings and such a short time frame, the ability to raise a lot of money is only one factor of many — and though Mulroney claims to have raised nearly seven times as much money as Ford, she has done it from only 1.4 times as many donors.
It's a lot to sift through. To help do it, Pollcast host Éric Grenier is joined by Conservative insider Chad Rogers, a partner at Crestview Strategy.
Host Éric Grenier is joined by Conservative insider Chad Rogers
CBC News Posted: Feb 15, 2018 5:31 PM ET Last Updated: Feb 15, 2018 5:31 PM ET
Caroline Mulroney is one of four registered candidates for the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leadership, along with Tanya Allen, Christine Elliott and Doug Ford. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)
With little more than three weeks to go before the Ontario Progressive Conservatives choose their next leader, there isn't much time for the candidates to make an impression on party members — or for anyone to quite pin down who has the best chance of winning on March 10.
A lot of factors are at play, including who signs up the most new members in a short timeframe, what the pre-existing membership thinks about the candidates and how the preferential ballot will affect the count.
So far, four candidates are running: Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney. The cut-off for entering the race — and registering as a member able to vote — is Friday.
Mulroney and Elliott both have a long list of endorsements behind them, including MPPs, MPs and nominated candidates. On Thursday, Mulroney boasted that she has raised $486,000. That puts her well ahead of the $70,000 that Ford said he had raised as of Wednesday.
But with a preferential ballot, equally-weighted ridings and such a short time frame, the ability to raise a lot of money is only one factor of many — and though Mulroney claims to have raised nearly seven times as much money as Ford, she has done it from only 1.4 times as many donors.
It's a lot to sift through. To help do it, Pollcast host Éric Grenier is joined by Conservative insider Chad Rogers, a partner at Crestview Strategy.
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Justin Giovannetti
MISSISSAUGA, Ont.
Published February 18, 2018Updated 2 hours ago
Three weeks ago, Patrick Brown faced the cameras alone, shaken and in tears, with his resignation imminent.
On Sunday, the former leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party – and current candidate in the race to replace himself – stood at a small podium bearing his name, flanked by his two sisters and 18 PC candidates running in the looming provincial election. On the floor was a crowd far above the small room's capacity, brandishing signs and often wild with cheers.
When one candidate called him the party's "former leader" during his introduction, another stepped forward and grabbed the microphone. "Our existing leader!" he yelled.
The crowded room erupted in screams of joy.
As Mr. Brown began to speak, he was interrupted. "My leader," someone yelled. Moments later came a chant of "People's Guarantee," the name Mr. Brown gave to his platform for the general election when he still led the party. They supported him during his hardest moment, as he told them about the allegations he's faced and the steps he's taken to clear his name. His entourage yelled encouragements: They trusted him, not the accusers. People in the room nodded and cheered more.
Mr. Brown told the crowd he is ready to take back the job he resigned from only three weeks ago under a cloud of sexual misconduct allegations. The 39-year-old old said he should lead Ontario's official opposition into a June election and denied allegations of sexual misconduct brought forward by two young women in late January. He also lashed out at the media for reporting the story that threw the PC Party in chaos.
"To be vilified without due process is absolutely gutting. To be shunned as an outcast from the party that I love over fabricated news reports, it hit me like a ton of bricks," said the Barrie-area politician.
Before the allegations surfaced against Mr. Brown, polls showed he was likely to unseat Premier Kathleen Wynne in June.
In the weeks since Mr. Brown resigned from the job he had held for nearly three years, the interim leader of Ontario's PC Party has reported that membership numbers were inflated under Mr. Brown, declared that "rot" had been allowed to grow in the party and called new nomination races amid allegations of ballot stuffing under the former leader. On Friday, Mr. Brown was expelled from his party's caucus and will have to sit in Ontario's legislature as an independent.
Mr. Brown said that his name had been cleared of the allegations first reported by CTV News. "My sole focus over the past three weeks has been to clear my name and I'm grateful that that's been accomplished," he said.
Many of the supporters present on Sunday echoed the former leader's contention that the allegations against him had been disproved.
"I think that given what we've seen over these past few weeks, given the qualifications we have seen to these allegations, I certainly have no hesitation supporting Patrick Brown," said Ross Romano, the MPP for Sault-Ste-Marie, who was present at the campaign launch with more than a dozen candidates supporting Mr. Brown.
While he is now in the leadership race, the party has yet to sign off on his candidacy and he still needs to be vetted.
After allegations of sexual misconduct were aired against Mr. Brown, he began waging a campaign on social media and in select interviews to rehabilitate his image. He accused CTV News of fabricating a "malicious and false report" after the network changed a key aspect of its story that aired on the evening of Jan. 24. CTV reported last week that one of the women said she was not under the legal drinking age or in high school during one of the alleged incidents, as originally reported. No changes were made to the allegations levelled against Mr. Brown by a second woman. CTV said it stands by its reporting.
Mr. Brown said his lawyers are preparing a lawsuit against CTV News and what he dismissed as "sloppy journalism" on Sunday. CTV's spokesman has said the company is prepared to defend its journalism in court.
Toby Barrett, an MPP given a senior position in the party by Mr. Brown, said that "100 per cent of the people" he has spoken with don't believe the allegations against him. "They told me that he got railroaded, he got taken out for political reasons," Mr. Barrett told The Globe.
Leadership candidate Christine Elliott said Mr. Brown "is closing in" on the goal of clearing his name in response to the allegations of sexual misconduct that he says are falsehoods.
In an interview with CTV's Question Period that aired Sunday, Ms. Elliott repeated her view that if she becomes leader, she would allow Mr. Brown to run as a PC candidate provided that he clears his name.
"Well I think he's already done a lot," she said, when asked to describe the threshold she would expect Mr. Brown to meet. "He has been conducting his own investigation. He's been on television telling his story of what happened. He's taken a lie detector test, so I think he's closing in on what he has to do, but it's not quite finished yet, and we'll see where it ends. It seems to be changing minute by minute so we'll have to see."
Three of the other candidates running for the party leadership – Doug Ford, Tanya Granic Allen and Caroline Mulroney – said they did not support Mr. Brown's entry into the race.
感觉还是佩服他的勇气虽然我不看好他。在这个民主的社会什么人都应该有机会。
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Progressive Conservative leadership candidates Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliot, Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney pose for pictures after the PC leadership candidates debate at TVO studios in Toronto last week. (Vince Talotta / Toronto Star)
By Thomas WalkomNational Affairs Columnist
Mon., Feb. 19, 2018
Ontario’s Progressive Conservative leadership hopefuls are veering to the right. This in itself is not unusual.
There is an important right wing within the party. All candidates want to capture the votes of those who identify themselves with it.
Which is why, in last week’s leadership debate, alleged moderate Christine Elliott pronounced herself opposed to Ontario’s sex education curriculum.
And which is also why Caroline Mulroney, another alleged moderate, now opposes a carbon tax she once backed.
What is unusual is the timing. Normally, a new party leader who wishes to return to the ideological centre before the next general election has plenty of time to do so. In this case, the contenders have not been accorded that luxury. The new leader is to be chosen March 10, less than three months before Ontario goes to the polls.
To win in that June 7 general election, the Tories need two things to happen. First, they have to take advantage of the unpopularity of Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne. Second, they must do so without spooking centrist voters.
In particular, they have to avoid letting the Liberals paint them as economic or social extremists.
That’s what happened in the 2014 election. The Tories were on the way to victory until then leader Tim Hudak announced plans to eliminate 100,000 public-service jobs. That plus a maladroit New Democratic Party campaign allowed the Wynne Liberals to capture a majority of seats in the Legislature.
In the run-up to this year’s general election, the Tories initially went out of their way to avoid getting caught in another Hudak trap.
Then-leader Patrick Brown recanted his early enthusiasm for social conservative policies. Among other things, he dropped his opposition to the Liberal government’s sex education curriculum.
To allay fears that the Tories were climate-change deniers, he announced support for a carbon tax. And he released a platform that promised to keep in place most of Wynne’s popular reforms — including a pharmacare plan for young people.
In effect, he was trying to reassure centrist and centre-left voters that, if elected to government, the Tories wouldn’t do anything crazy.
That in turn, it was hoped, would bleed off Liberal support to the NDP in three-way races and allow the Tories to come up the middle.
But then Brown was cashiered — the casualty of an alleged sex scandal. Unless he manages to use Friday’s last-minute leadership bid to resurrect himself, so is his platform.
His would-be successors — former Toronto councillor Doug Ford, former MPP Elliott, political celebrity Mulroney and social conservative activist Tanya Granic Allen — all say they now oppose the carbon tax that was the fiscal centrepiece of the platform.
With the exception of Mulroney all oppose the current sex education curriculum.
The old platform, Granic Allen said, “died the day Patrick Brown resigned.”
She’s right. And with it died the Conservative strategy of how to manoeuvre through the general election campaign.
Thursday’s debate did not showcase the party as a collection of fiscally responsible moderates. Indeed, thanks to Granic Allen’s bravura performance, it was as if all energy in the party came from the hard right. She dominated the debate.
Elliott and Mulroney were anemic by comparison. Even Ford seemed tame.
Given the complicated nature of the PC voting procedure, none of the leadership candidates can ignore the social conservatives that Granic Allen claims to represent. Even if she doesn’t win, her second or third ballot support could put one of the other contenders over the top.
But the more time the Tories spend pandering to the right in this leadership race, the more they risk in the soon-to-follow general election.
That is the strange quandary in which they find themselves.
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Patrick Brown is scrummed by the media after a meeting at the Conservative Party headquarters in Toronto on Friday. Brown was forced out as party leader on Jan. 25 amid allegations of sexual impropriety. He is now trying to get his old job back. (Christopher Katsarov / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief
Mon., Feb. 19, 2018
What a difference 10 weeks can make.
When MPPs rose for the winter break on Dec. 14, Patrick Brown was leader of the Progressive Conservatives.
Brown’s election team and his carefully crafted People’s Guarantee campaign manifesto were intact; the Liberal re-election effort was being led by Patricia Sorbara; and the New Democrats’ campaign hopes lay with Michael Balagus.
Fast-forward to Tuesday as parliamentarians return to Queen’s Park and all of that has changed.
Brown was forced out as leader early on Jan. 25 just hours after his senior aides resigned en masse after CTV News reported allegations of sexual impropriety involving teenage girls.
Premier Kathleen Wynne has replaced Sorbara, one of her most trusted aides and a key architect of the Liberals’ 2014 election win, in a campaign shake-up.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has placed Balagus, her chief of staff and campaign director, on a leave over accusations he did not take women’s complaints about a groping cabinet minister “seriously” while chief of staff to Manitoba premiers Gary Doer and Greg Selinger.
All of this tumult has happened against the backdrop of a looming June 7 election.
But no party is in more turmoil than the Conservatives.
The Tories have been thrust into a March 10 leadership race where former MPP Christine Elliott, runner-up to Brown in the 2015 contest, ex-Toronto councillor Doug Ford, rookie PC candidate Caroline Mulroney, anti-sex-education activist Tanya Granic Allen, and, in a bizarre twist, Brown, himself, are vying for the crown.
All except Brown oppose the carbon tax that bankrolled the big-ticket promises in the “People’s Guarantee,” including more funding for mental health, child-care breaks, and income-tax cuts.
A recent Campaign Research public-opinion survey showed that dumping Brown appears to have helped the party’s fortunes regardless of who leads them into the spring vote.
Elliott, Ford, and Mulroney each poll ahead of Wynne and Horwath, but pollster Eli Yufest said the situation is volatile.
Indeed, on Friday, interim PC leader Vic Fedeli turfed Brown from caucus.
“Shortly after becoming interim leader, I asked Patrick Brown to step aside from the PC caucus,” Fedeli said in a statement.
“The Legislature is set to resume sitting on Tuesday … following Family Day,” he said.
“Mr. Brown was notified that he has been removed from the PC caucus effective immediately.”
In part that was because the Tories did not want the distraction of a discredited former leader in the House — even one who has denied any wrongdoing and vowed to clear his name.
But Brown was having none of it and jumped into the race for his old post just two hours before the deadline for entry.
Wynne, for her part, doesn’t really want to be talking about her former rival across the floor because the Liberals are already getting precious little media attention due to the PC spectacle.
“There are lots of questions for the Conservatives that are swirling around the situation and, really, it is up to them and their leadership to answer those questions,” the premier said last week.
“We cannot answer those questions. It is up to the Conservatives to do that.”
The government is instead hoping the weeks leading up to an expected March budget will be spent talking about the Liberal “OHIP+” pharmacare program and last month’s increase to the minimum wage, which is now $14 an hour.
“We’re going into a budget cycle, as you know, so that will be very much a part of what we’ll be doing,” the premier said, adding trade issues will also be top of mind.
“One of the first things that we will be doing when we go back to the Legislature is introducing legislation that will enable us as a province to put in place policies to counteract the ‘Buy America’ policies that we see popping up in the United States,” she said.
“We’re challenged by the New York ‘Buy America’ policy that is ... narrower than they had first intended. It’s about government procurement, but the reality is that if there are those protectionist initiatives taken in the States then we have to have the ability to respond.”
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看不出， 说说
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