2019加拿村民回国进城记-I：北京行

[PAL]

就一付钱的手段，费牛劲写这么多，累不累? 感觉特象隔壁阿三家的二小子，拿着个新玩具满世界炫耀，可着劲和别的孩子比，一定要把别人比下去。

就一付钱的手段? 你知道信用卡对世界带来的改变吗？

 

[zhangulei]

hutu

 

[糊不糊涂]

就一付钱的手段? 你知道信用卡对世界带来的改变吗？

不要张嘴就责问别人知不知道。你知道的不一定比被你责问的人多。

既然你知道，那你就说说信用卡给世界带来了什么改变，手机支付又给世界带来了什么改变? 两者相比又如何? 你基于事实理性推导出的结论很可能和前面长文得出的结论完全相反。

 

[糊不糊涂]

hutu

这件事一目了然。想糊涂都难。

 

[Jay Wang]

圈儿哥强势回归！

 

[zhangulei]

回归? 冻死了。12月份，2月份的苦寒。求包子求安慰。

 

[urus]

要看环境， 要看土壤！
同学们， 你们争来争去的， 都没用。

如果中国有一家信用卡公司， 也可以提供盗刷以后的赔偿， 也没戏， 中国人一样继续使用手机支付。 因为那个体系已经建成了， 茫茫人海中， 人人都用手机支付， 你莫名其妙的拿个信用卡， 都没地方让你刷。 跟信用卡这好那好的各种feature无关。

如果你拿着手机， 支付宝， 微信。。 一应俱全， 到美国加拿大， 你支付宝里的钱再多，也没处儿花去。 因为没有商家支持你的手机扫码支付。 到头来，你还得去弄张银行卡或者信用卡，才能顺利消费。 这根手机支付是如何先进，中国的弄堂老太太们是如何的把手机支付玩儿的溜。。。。 一点关系也没有。

 

[Jay Wang]

回归? 冻死了。12月份，2月份的苦寒。求包子求安慰。

小声问圈儿哥，您是不是很久没回国了？

 

[zhangulei]

要看环境， 要看土壤！
同学们， 你们争来争去的， 都没用。

如果中国有一家信用卡公司， 也可以提供盗刷以后的赔偿， 也没戏， 中国人一样继续使用手机支付。 因为那个体系已经建成了， 茫茫人海中， 人人都用手机支付， 你莫名其妙的拿个信用卡， 都没地方让你刷。 跟信用卡这好那好的各种feature无关。

如果你拿着手机， 支付宝， 微信。。 一应俱全， 到美国加拿大， 你支付宝里的钱再多，也没处儿花去。 因为没有商家支持你的手机扫码支付。 到头来，你还得去弄张银行卡或者信用卡，才能顺利消费。 这根手机支付是如何先进，中国的弄堂老太太们是如何的把手机支付玩儿的溜。。。。 一点关系也没有。

你们都是在小看mobilepay。看看摩根怎么说吧。说的是mobilepay的革命之一个面而已。但是就此，已经完胜于信用支付了。

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/mobile-pay-taps-global-growth

Mobile pay represents the latest evolution and expansion of the global marketplace, with the potential to reach into all of the places lacking the amenities of modern finance, via the nearly ubiquitous tool known as the cellphone.
Morgan Stanley Blue Papers, a product of our Research Division, involve collaboration from analysts, economists and strategists across the globe and address long-term, structural business changes that are reshaping the fundamentals of entire economies and industries around the globe.

Mobile payments promise to merge one of the oldest tools of society—money—with one of its newest: smartphones. This will improve ease-of-use and security for shoppers currently carrying wallets bulging with paper and plastic. But more than that, mobile payments represent the latest evolution and expansion of the global marketplace. It has the potential to reach into all the places where there are no bank branches or ATMs distributing cash, and where credit and debit cards aren’t accepted, via the nearly ubiquitous tool known as the cellphone.

Here is the potential of mobile pay in a nutshell: The global count of active credit- and debit-card accounts is 1.3 billion, according to credit card processer First Data, compared with nearly 7.3 billion active mobile phone accounts, according to the International Telecommunications Union, of which some two billion are smartphones.

The nascent mobile payment industry can leverage these existing routes to reach a growing base of consumers, giving them access to mobile credit and currency. This in turn translates into more customers and revenue, enlarging the market for financial services and players. “Mobile payments can expand the global revenue pie from $175 billion to $250 billion, including $45 billion in developed markets and $30 billion in emerging markets,” says Smittipon Srethapramote, who covers the North American payments industry for Morgan Stanley.

Wide Open Arena
Whether mobile payments will disrupt or amplify the marketplace for financial transactions depends on the market. The current electronic payment structure—involving customers, issuers, merchants and merchant acquirers linked by card networks—has been in place for nearly a half century. Developed markets could face some disruption. In the US, for example, retail merchants who accept card-based payments paid about $67 billion in fees in 2012. This was split between card issuers, acquirers, networks and payment processors. New players could emerge as mobile payments take off, for example, IT hardware and software companies or telecommunications providers, and share part of the card-based payments revenue stream.

Meanwhile, new revenue models are emerging. Cloud-based digital payment and wallet solutions have had a head start. However, hardware-based options, which allow users to make seamless and secure payments with their mobile devices, may be ascendant right now, as major players line up behind dominant hardware makers pushing into mobile payments. There are also retailer-sponsored groups offering their own mobile payment systems to lower the cost of accepting cards.

The mobile payments arena remains fragmented and wide open. Success will largely depend on consumers and merchants, whose adoption of mobile payments will hinge on whether the system is widely accepted, makes transactions easier, has robust consumer protections and security, can target and drive sales, and has low costs for merchants.

Big Data Opportunities
Also intriguing are the opportunities for “Big Data.” Mobile pay offers a rich trove of information on consumer behavior and unprecedented direct access to shoppers. Retailers, marketing firms, Internet giants, and analytics companies that can aggregate and make sense of the data stand to be big winners. Waving a smartphone to pay for your purchases at the checkout is just the start. Based on specific consumer behavior, GPS and other data points, retailers can reach out directly to potential customers with tailored offers, rewards, loyalty programs and so on. Consumers can act on those offers right from their mobile devices.

It’s not just about impulse buying. Mobile pay could also offer consumers greater transparency into, and control over, their finances and budget planning. Instead of acting on that offer that just popped up on your phone as you passed by a store, you could check the status of your credit balance or bank account and make an informed decision. Parents could receive detailed updates on what and where their children are spending their mobile allowances.

Emerging Market Growth Potential
The most tantalizing possibilities for mobile pay are in markets that traditional forms of cash and credit have failed to penetrate. These payment infrastructures are costly to build, run and maintain. Yet, even in some of the most remote places on the planet, mobile phones and access have become commonplace. For example, sub-Saharan Africa has 60% mobile phone penetration vs. 25% banking penetration. Mobile pay systems can allow emerging markets to leapfrog the landline-based infrastructure of traditional cash and credit, and drive the adoption of electronic payments.

The spread of mobile pay could financially empower people in emerging markets. Over the next five years, new mobile point-of-sale solutions, which are already making inroads in developed markets, could double the locations around the globe that accept mobile payments. Low-fee mobile payment systems can turn anyone with a smartphone into a small business, catering to customers who are also using their phones to pay for goods or services.

As smartphone adoption rates rise in emerging markets, so does the potential for mobile pay. Globally, online commerce channels have grown four times faster than brick and mortar, and are increasingly going mobile. Juniper Research forecasts that mobile transactions via smartphones and tablets will increase to $3.2 trillion by 2017 from $1.5 trillion in 2013. The financial pie is getting bigger, and more businesses and customers will be able to get their slice of it.

Morgan Stanley Research has reported extensively on the development and potential for mobile pay in its Blue Paper “Mobile Payments: The Coming Battle for the Wallet” (Oct 1, 2014). Explore more Ideas and Research, or contact your Morgan Stanley representative for the full report. Find a Financial Advisor to discuss your investment goals and strategy.

 

[zhangulei]

小声问圈儿哥，您是不是很久没回国了？

小声说，有3年了。上次回去。还没有这种震撼。这次已经全面铺开了，差距不是一点半点。
CFC在这里讨论左右的时候，呵呵，不知国内新来的小同学们会不会贻笑大方呢。

 

[Jay Wang]

小声说，有3年了。上次回去。还没有这种震撼。这次已经全面铺开了，差距不是一点半点。
CFC在这里讨论左右的时候，呵呵，不知国内新来的小同学们会不会贻笑大方呢。

多被震撼几次就习惯了。
连卖油条的大妈都在笑话咱们老土。

 

[urus]

你们都是在小看mobilepay。看看摩根怎么说吧。说的是mobilepay的革命之一个面而已。但是就此，已经完胜于信用支付了。

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/mobile-pay-taps-global-growth

Mobile pay represents the latest evolution and expansion of the global marketplace, with the potential to reach into all of the places lacking the amenities of modern finance, via the nearly ubiquitous tool known as the cellphone.
Morgan Stanley Blue Papers, a product of our Research Division, involve collaboration from analysts, economists and strategists across the globe and address long-term, structural business changes that are reshaping the fundamentals of entire economies and industries around the globe.

Mobile payments promise to merge one of the oldest tools of society—money—with one of its newest: smartphones. This will improve ease-of-use and security for shoppers currently carrying wallets bulging with paper and plastic. But more than that, mobile payments represent the latest evolution and expansion of the global marketplace. It has the potential to reach into all the places where there are no bank branches or ATMs distributing cash, and where credit and debit cards aren’t accepted, via the nearly ubiquitous tool known as the cellphone.

Here is the potential of mobile pay in a nutshell: The global count of active credit- and debit-card accounts is 1.3 billion, according to credit card processer First Data, compared with nearly 7.3 billion active mobile phone accounts, according to the International Telecommunications Union, of which some two billion are smartphones.

The nascent mobile payment industry can leverage these existing routes to reach a growing base of consumers, giving them access to mobile credit and currency. This in turn translates into more customers and revenue, enlarging the market for financial services and players. “Mobile payments can expand the global revenue pie from $175 billion to $250 billion, including $45 billion in developed markets and $30 billion in emerging markets,” says Smittipon Srethapramote, who covers the North American payments industry for Morgan Stanley.

Wide Open Arena
Whether mobile payments will disrupt or amplify the marketplace for financial transactions depends on the market. The current electronic payment structure—involving customers, issuers, merchants and merchant acquirers linked by card networks—has been in place for nearly a half century. Developed markets could face some disruption. In the US, for example, retail merchants who accept card-based payments paid about $67 billion in fees in 2012. This was split between card issuers, acquirers, networks and payment processors. New players could emerge as mobile payments take off, for example, IT hardware and software companies or telecommunications providers, and share part of the card-based payments revenue stream.

Meanwhile, new revenue models are emerging. Cloud-based digital payment and wallet solutions have had a head start. However, hardware-based options, which allow users to make seamless and secure payments with their mobile devices, may be ascendant right now, as major players line up behind dominant hardware makers pushing into mobile payments. There are also retailer-sponsored groups offering their own mobile payment systems to lower the cost of accepting cards.

The mobile payments arena remains fragmented and wide open. Success will largely depend on consumers and merchants, whose adoption of mobile payments will hinge on whether the system is widely accepted, makes transactions easier, has robust consumer protections and security, can target and drive sales, and has low costs for merchants.

Big Data Opportunities
Also intriguing are the opportunities for “Big Data.” Mobile pay offers a rich trove of information on consumer behavior and unprecedented direct access to shoppers. Retailers, marketing firms, Internet giants, and analytics companies that can aggregate and make sense of the data stand to be big winners. Waving a smartphone to pay for your purchases at the checkout is just the start. Based on specific consumer behavior, GPS and other data points, retailers can reach out directly to potential customers with tailored offers, rewards, loyalty programs and so on. Consumers can act on those offers right from their mobile devices.

It’s not just about impulse buying. Mobile pay could also offer consumers greater transparency into, and control over, their finances and budget planning. Instead of acting on that offer that just popped up on your phone as you passed by a store, you could check the status of your credit balance or bank account and make an informed decision. Parents could receive detailed updates on what and where their children are spending their mobile allowances.

Emerging Market Growth Potential
The most tantalizing possibilities for mobile pay are in markets that traditional forms of cash and credit have failed to penetrate. These payment infrastructures are costly to build, run and maintain. Yet, even in some of the most remote places on the planet, mobile phones and access have become commonplace. For example, sub-Saharan Africa has 60% mobile phone penetration vs. 25% banking penetration. Mobile pay systems can allow emerging markets to leapfrog the landline-based infrastructure of traditional cash and credit, and drive the adoption of electronic payments.

The spread of mobile pay could financially empower people in emerging markets. Over the next five years, new mobile point-of-sale solutions, which are already making inroads in developed markets, could double the locations around the globe that accept mobile payments. Low-fee mobile payment systems can turn anyone with a smartphone into a small business, catering to customers who are also using their phones to pay for goods or services.

As smartphone adoption rates rise in emerging markets, so does the potential for mobile pay. Globally, online commerce channels have grown four times faster than brick and mortar, and are increasingly going mobile. Juniper Research forecasts that mobile transactions via smartphones and tablets will increase to $3.2 trillion by 2017 from $1.5 trillion in 2013. The financial pie is getting bigger, and more businesses and customers will be able to get their slice of it.

Morgan Stanley Research has reported extensively on the development and potential for mobile pay in its Blue Paper “Mobile Payments: The Coming Battle for the Wallet” (Oct 1, 2014). Explore more Ideas and Research, or contact your Morgan Stanley representative for the full report. Find a Financial Advisor to discuss your investment goals and strategy.

圈儿哥， 你还是落入了科技决定论的窠臼里去了。

人类社会啊， 是个合作协同的体系， 孤木不成林，单丝不成线。

假设你现在拥有一个最最先进，各方面都毫无瑕疵的mobilepay 工具吧。 好吧？你也得依靠环境， 才能顺利消费。

你拿着这个先进工具， 跑到火星殖民地， 没法消费， 因为人家可能使用某矿石作为通用货币；
你拿着这个先进工具， 穿越到某个修真世界， 没法消费， 因为人家使用所谓的上品灵石作为通用货币；
你拿着这个先进工具， 跑到大航海时代的东印度公司爪哇驻地， 没法消费， 因为人家根本没办法使用你这个先进工具；
你拿着这个先进工具， 回到1969年的中国， 也没法消费， 不但没法消费， 你拿着这么一个奇怪工具， 搞不好就是敌特，给抓起来了；
你拿着这个先进工具， 回到唐宋， 还是没法消费， 因为人家把金、银、铜币作为通用货币；
你拿着这个先进工具， 来到当下，但是进入了一个与世隔绝的亚马逊部落里， 还是没法消费 ；
。。。


所谓的先进支付手段，只有在那个合适的时刻， 那个合适的地点， 才能顺利成为先进支付手段。
无论是时间不合适， 还是地点不合适， 都不可能被市场和消费者认可而接受。

 

[zhangulei]

革命，什么是革命。老贵族往往拒不接受。但是最终谁能逃过?

 

[urus]

革命，什么是革命。老贵族往往拒不接受。但是最终谁能逃过?

关键力量在人民。

如果人民不愿意接受， 或者人民现在觉得挺舒服， 不愿意动弹。

无论是贵族、老贵族， 还是革命者， 都无法改变现状。

 

[zhangulei]

关键力量在人民。

如果人民不愿意接受， 或者人民现在觉得挺舒服， 不愿意动弹。

无论是贵族、老贵族， 还是革命者， 都无法改变现状。

问题是西方常年居于上位，理念里实际是全民贵族。哈哈。革命面前，全民被席卷不是不可能。且看。