2020年美国选举：众议院选举，民主党获得222席，共和党获210席，佩洛西再次当选众议院议长；参议院选举，形成民主党50：50共和党局面；国会正式认证，拜登以选举人团306票当选总统
- 主题发起人 ccc
- 开始时间
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
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- 238,978
- 荣誉分数
- 37,375
- 声望点数
- 1,393
too early to tell.
茶马盐铁
我想看看自定义头衔到底能有多少字。继续加，看系统什么时候把这个字符串截断。呃，居然还有？那就继续吧。
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- 2015-08-14
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- 声望点数
- 273
没啥悬念了
- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 238,978
- 荣誉分数
- 37,375
- 声望点数
- 1,393
早着呢!
9 p.m. — Will the Democrats widen their map into Arizona and Texas?
- Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Kansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming and most of Nebraska likely will be projected for Trump, giving him between 99 and 109 votes depending on how his night is going. That could include a call in Missouri if his numbers look good there.
The networks might hold off for a little while on a call in Colorado, though it is very likely to go to Biden.
Arizona and Texas, however, could be very close. Though the count there is not expected to be overly slow, a projection will take some time if these are tight races. If Biden is able to flip Arizona, he will have a very good shot at winning the presidency. If he is able to win Texas, then he is heading toward a landslide.
A closer race between Biden and Trump early in the night, on the other hand, keeps Trump in the game — especially since the early returns in Arizona and Texas are likely to be Democratic-leaning. But Wisconsin could look fairly red early on, before swinging blue some time after midnight.
Michigan won't be giving us complete results for days but, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it could start out leaning more Republican.
10 p.m. — Iowa and Nevada start counting as trends start getting clearer
- Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.
Virginia and Colorado should be projected for Biden by this point, while Missouri and Utah go to Trump. That puts the electoral count at 134 for Biden and 115 for Trump.
We's still a long way from the 270 needed to win at this point. Iowa, Nevada and (if it's close) Montana might take some time before a call can be made.
11 p.m. — West coast swings for Biden, but is it enough?
- Polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
That's a big boost in the electoral college vote for Biden. If the night is going well for him, New Hampshire and Minnesota might also be called in his favour by now, boosting his vote to 222, with Trump well behind at 119.
If the night is not going well for Biden, the networks might be holding off on a call in Minnesota and could instead be calling states like Georgia, Texas and Florida for Trump. That would be a turning point in the night for the president, as a win in Florida and Georgia would open up a path back to the White House for him.
But even if all of these were called for him, Trump would still be at just 205 electoral college votes.
After midnight — Time to decide whether you want to stay up for this
- Polls close in Hawaii (midnight) and Alaska (1 a.m.).
Hawaii will be called for Biden at this point and, if he is having a good night, Florida and North Carolina might be called or about to be called for him as well. That would put him at 270 electoral college votes and make him the projected winner. If the calls are coming a little more slowly, then it could be a few more hours before he technically crosses that finish line — with lots of swing states yet to be called one way or the other.
The question is, do you want to stay awake long enough to see how these states turn out?
If the night is going Trump's way, you might as well head to bed. Even if states like North Carolina and Ohio are called for him — nudging him ahead of Biden in the electoral college count — too many other states would remain uncalled (and uncallable) for Trump to get to 270.
By morning, final calls might be made in all but the closest states and those that will take days to report final results, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. If Biden is winning, he probably doesn't need these. If Trump is still in the running, then it will come down to the results in these states.
The morning (or days) after — Either it's all over, or it's just beginning
Biden and Trump both have paths to the presidency, but they're very different. Biden's is clear enough and wide enough to get him to 270 electoral college votes before the sun rises on Wednesday. Trump's path, however, runs almost exclusively through states that might not have enough votes counted before the end of the week to make a call — particularly if it's close.
As in 2016, a Trump victory in 2020 likely would be due to a very close election. In such a close election, where the margins in a number of swing states are less than two points, it might not be possible to call important states like Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Arizona or Florida.
If it does get to that point, either candidate could narrowly come out on top — but it might take days to find out which one.
That could mean a busy few days and weeks for vote counters. And judging by America's history with contested elections and the statements from President Trump and his team, the lawyers would be kept busy as well.
