2020年美国选举:众议院选举,民主党获得222席,共和党获210席,佩洛西再次当选众议院议长;参议院选举,形成民主党50:50共和党局面;国会正式认证,拜登以选举人团306票当选总统

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结果还没最后出来但已经很出人意料,充分说明了美国人要钱不要命。
 
最后结果得等几天。
 
大选之后才是混乱的开始 司法大战将一触即发

大选之后才是混乱的开始 司法大战将一触即发
京港台:2020-11-4 01:58| 来源:东网



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拜登(左图)及川普(右图)或不承认选举结果。


美国总统选举日在即,总统川普及候选人拜登斗得难分难解之际,英国《泰晤士报》分析6个可能结果情境,不论哪一方败选,都有可能会采取法律行动。

拜登险胜 ●失去佛罗里达州,但重夺宾夕凡尼亚州、俄亥俄州及威斯康辛州等北部、中西部州份。川普可能会指控民主党控制的城市,以邮寄投票舞弊,并把纠纷移师至法庭解决。

川普险胜 ●重演上届大选结果,输掉普选票但取得足够选举人票,在宾夕凡尼亚州及亚利桑那州以微弱优势胜出。民主党或批评选举制缺乏代表性,拜登团队可能考虑诉诸司法。

拜登大胜 ●重夺参议院控制权及拿下铁锈带州份,包括密歇根州、威州及俄亥俄州;南部阳光带由加州(专题)至佛罗里达州,同样成为囊中物,并拿下共和党票仓北卡罗莱纳州及乔治亚州。

川普大胜 ●打破民调预测,取得阳光带及中西部州份,共和党仍在参议院占多数优势。

争持不下 ●双方票数相近或需时数周才确认正式结果;倘宾夕凡尼亚州选票出现争议,双方可能就邮寄投票、选民登记及选举舞弊展开攻防,抗议者走上街头。

川普自行宣布当选 ●川普可能在点票当晚领先,并提早宣布当选;而邮寄投票较迟才完成点票,拜登可能会后来居上甚至反胜。即使最终落败,川普可能拒绝离开白宫,并发起法律诉讼质疑关键州份邮寄选票的有效。po
 

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When will we know the US election result?
Due to increased postal voting some states will not consider counting of the presidential ballots complete until Friday

Donald Trump’s false claim to have already won the US presidential election while millions of votes remain to be counted has focused the spotlight once more on one of the big uncertainties of the 2020 race: when will we know the result?

It could take days, weeks or even months, depending on what happens.

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What usually happens?

US presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote. The winner in each state collects its electoral college votes – and needs a total of 270 to take the White House.

In most elections the result is clear – although not officially confirmed – by the end of the night. Major American media outlets “call” each state for one of the candidates. While not based on the final vote count, that projection is almost invariably accurate.

This means an accurate tally of electoral college votes can be made and a winner declared. In 2016, that happened at 2.30am in Washington when Trump reached the required 270.

Why is that not happening this time?

Mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters – about 68% of the total, compared with 34% in 2016 – cast their ballots early, including by post.

Counting postal votes is slower because voter and witness signatures and addresses must be checked, and ballots smoothed out before being fed into counting machines.

Some states start that verification process long before election day, meaning the count itself can get under way as soon as polls close. Others, however, do not allow that.

Which states are we talking about?

The states that could decide this year’s race. Trump’s victories in Florida, Ohio and Texas have kept alive his hopes of re-election, but a key state, Arizona, has been called for Biden. If the Democratic challenger wins Michigan and Wisconsin, he could afford to lose Georgia and Pennsylvania and still win the election by two electoral college votes.

Millions of postal votes still remain to be counted in these undecided states, and Democratic voters are known to have been more likely to vote by post than Republican ones.

In Georgia, where rules allowed absentee ballots to be pre-processed, several big counties reported long delays and sent counters home late on Tuesday evening rather than finish counting overnight.

Neither Wisconsin, where Biden is seen as having a narrow lead, or Pennsylvania, where Trump is ahead for now, allow postal votes to be prepared for counting before election day.

In Wisconsin, a call could be coming soon. In Pennsylvania – where the count started at 7am on election day – officials have said the process could take up to two days.

In Michigan, processing was allowed to begin 24 hours before election day in cities, but officials have said that was not soon enough to expect an early result either.

What else is complicating matters?

Roughly half of all states will accept postal votes that arrive after election day as long as they carry a postmark of no later than 3 November, so postal delays may mean some ballots are not processed until days later: Pennsylvania has said results will not be considered complete until the deadline of Friday.

There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional ballots cast by people who asked for a postal vote but then decided to go to the polling station in person instead. These need careful checking to make sure no one has voted twice.

The really big unknown: a disputed result

In the 2000 race, the Democratic candidate, Al Gore, famously lost Florida by just more than 500 votes out of a total of nearly 6m, costing him the election. After a disputed recount and a supreme court ruling, George W Bush was declared the winner.

More than 300 lawsuits have already been filed over alleged breached of electoral law in the 2020 election, according to reports, and more can be expected over accusations of postal voting irregularities and changes to voting rules due to the pandemic.

Recounts have to be a strong possibility in one or more of the key swing states, and Trump said in his first post-election address late on Tuesday that he would be going to the supreme court in an attempt to stop ballot counting. While it is far from clear how feasible such a move would be, anything like it could delay a final vote for weeks.
 

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The ingredients have now been assembled for a combustible post-election aftermath in the United States. And Donald Trump has begun flinging matches.

Uncertainty had been predicted for months and early returns confirmed that voting day would indeed pass without a clear winner.

As in 2016, Trump outperformed the polls, forcing a state-by-state duel with Democratic challenger Joe Biden that could conceivably culminate in Trump winning a second term.

The result could become clearer within hours, or perhaps days.

States are still counting mail-in ballots, which tend to skew Democrat, and Biden is quickly narrowing gaps in the count in several states; in some cases, he's possibly set to overtake Trump.

The chaotic finale illustrates the country's bitter polarization; the parties are arguing about which types of ballots are legitimate.

The president has eagerly fanned that polarization. Early Wednesday morning, he falsely claimed that he had already won. Trump did so in an unusual rally from the White House, a seat of government not typically used for election events.

"This is a fraud on the American public. This is an embarrassment," Trump said from the executive residence. "We did win this election."

Trump promised to head to court to try cutting off the counting of votes.

In Pennsylvania, for example, Republicans have been trying to cancel the counting of ballots that are postmarked before election day but arrive after. It's one of more than 350 such cases this year over pandemic-related voting measures.

This is different from 2000

This year has already been far more litigious than the 2000 election, which became notorious for its Florida recount battle. Political-risk analysts fear this year's battles might not only play out in courtrooms but also in clashes on the street.
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Trump himself has used language unlike anything George W. Bush or Al Gore would have employed in 2000 — on Monday, Twitter censored a Trump tweet for appearing to warn of post-election violence.

Ben Ginsberg, a longtime Republican election lawyer who just retired, said he'd never heard this kind of language from a president. "No. Not even close," he told CNN early on Wednesday morning.

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Some of Trump's usual defenders sounded aghast at his election-night rhetoric.

"He went a step too far," said Fox News's Dana Perino, who read out a tweet calling the president's statement deeply irresponsible.

Trump ally Chris Christie also criticized the president, and former senator Rick Santorum told CNN, "I was very distressed by what I just heard the president say."

Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, the rare Republican lawmaker who occasionally rebukes Trump, said, "Stop. Full stop. The votes will be counted and you will either win or lose. And America will accept that."

The Trump chapter in U.S. history

One reason we're entering these choppy waters is the pandemic, and the polemic it has triggered between blue America and red America on mail voting. But it goes far beyond that.

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What's pushed this election to the vote-by-vote brawl at the finish line is a strong showing from Trump that has preserved for all of history some lessons about American politics.

It has illustrated that a large share of voters have an unflappable loyalty to Trump, despite behaviour his critics decry as unpresidential and anti-democratic.

It now appears official, after two elections, that Trump will never receive the widespread voter repudiation his many detractors have yearned to see.

Trump might even enter that most hallowed pantheon in what is sometimes described as the world's oldest democracy: the club of two-term U.S. presidents.

He not only registered high turnout from his white working-class base, he also ate into Democrats' support among Black and Latino voters.

Trump's victory is by no means assured; as of this writing, Biden could win and is arguably still slightly favoured.

Democrats got a huge relief by apparently winning Arizona. (Ironically, Trump made clear he wants the vote count to continue there, where it might help him.)

"We're feeling good about where we are," Biden said, cautioning that results might take a while but adding that he expected a boost from mail ballots.

"It's not my place or Donald Trump's place to declare who's won this election — that's the decision of the American people. But I'm optimistic about this outcome."

Democrats' Senate dreams start to dim

Even if Biden wins the presidency, it might prove a tarnished chalice. His party appears more likely than not to fall short of winning the Senate.

A hostile Senate would be likelier to thwart Biden's legislative agenda of expanded public health care, political reforms and a massive green-infrastructure program.

Republicans with control of that chamber would also be far likelier to spend the coming years investigating Biden. Investigations have already been launched by Republicans into the Biden family's business dealings.

Whatever the ultimate result of this presidential election, the odds have just grown longer against the American republic sailing into a less-turbulent era.
 


 
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