22 min ago
Can Biden become only the second Democrat to flip Arizona since 1948?
From CNN's Dan Merica
Voters wait in line outside a polling station, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Tempe, Arizona. Matt York/AP
Arizona has long been a Republican stronghold, but a growing Latino population and an influx of voters from more liberal areas has Democrats believing they could flip the state with Joe Biden atop the ticket.
Trump carried the state by over 3 percentage points in 2016, but Democrats won one of the state’s Senate seats in 2018 and carried both Maricopa and Pima County, where about 75% of the election’s votes are expected to be cast.
Trump remains markedly popular in the state’s rural areas, so the key to the race will be how big he wins counties like Pinal, Yavapai and Mohave, while Biden looks to boost turnout in Maricopa and Pima.
Arizona represents an insurance policy for Biden. It’s not a must win for the Democrat and a loss would not spell doom for Trump, but a blue Arizona could signify broader changes for Republicans. Polls show the race is narrow: A recent CNN survey found a race within the poll's margin of sampling error, with Biden at 50% support to Trump's 46%.
The state is also home to one of the most hotly contested Senate contests between Republican incumbent Martha McSally and Democrat Mark Kelly, who has consistently had a fundraising advantage and a recent CNN poll found the Democrat with a 7 percentage point lead.