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Covid-19 data
Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries
In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities
Graphic detail
JUL 15TH 2020
As covid-19 spread around the world, people have become grimly familiar with the death tolls that their governments publish each day. Unfortunately, the total number of fatalities caused by the pandemic may be even higher, for several reasons. First, the official statistics in many countries exclude victims who did not test positive for coronavirus before dying—which can be a substantial majority in places with little capacity for testing. Second, hospitals and civil registries may not process death certificates for several days, or even weeks, which creates lags in the data. And third, the pandemic has made it harder for doctors to treat other conditions and discouraged people from going to hospital, which may have indirectly caused an increase in fatalities from diseases other than covid-19.
One way to account for these methodological problems is to use a simpler measure, known as “excess deaths”: take the number of people who die from any cause in a given region and period, and then compare it with the recent historical average. Many Western countries, and a handful of nations and regions elsewhere, publish such data regularly. The table below shows that, in most places, the number of excess deaths is greater than the number of covid-19 fatalities officially recorded by governments in the same period.
The chart below uses data from EuroMOMO, a network of epidemiologists who collect weekly reports on deaths from all causes in 24 European countries, covering 350m people. These figures show that, compared with a historical baseline of 2009-19, Europe has suffered some deadly flu seasons since 2016—but that the death toll this year from covid-19 is far greater. Overall, the number of excess deaths across the continent since March is about 170,000. Though most of those victims have been older than 65, the number of deaths among Europeans aged 45-64 was 40% higher than usual in early April.
For some of the countries that publish data on excess deaths, we have been able to break the numbers down by region. The chart below allows you to explore these regional trends. The full data for each country and region, as well as our underlying code, can be downloaded from our GitHub repository.
Below are a second set of charts, comparing the number of excess deaths and official covid-19 deaths over time in each country. The lines on each chart represent excess deaths, and the shaded area represents the number of fatalities officially attributed to coronavirus by the government.
America has some of the largest regional disparities of any country. Big cities on the east coast were hit hard by covid-19 in March and April, but most other states locked down quickly enough to prevent major outbreaks. Overall, America’s’ rate of excess deaths per 100,000 people is lower than that of many western European countries.
However, the most recent weeks of excess-mortality data in America should be interpreted cautiously. Some states take at least a month to process death certificates, which means that the initial numbers they publish for a given week are substantial undercounts, creating the false impression of “negative” excess deaths.
At the same time that covid-19 was devastating New York, cities in western Europe were also suffering severe outbreaks. Britain, Spain, Italy and Belgium have some of the highest national excess-death rates in the world, after adjusting for the size of their populations. France and Portugal locked down comparatively early, given the number of positive tests at the time, and suffered fewer deaths.
European countries that are farther east and north have tended to have lower death rates. Governments in Germany and Austria ordered people to stay at home when they had relatively few confirmed cases. Sweden was one of the few countries that did not enforce a lockdown at all. It has endured a lower death rate than Britain or Spain, but a higher one than neighbouring Norway or Denmark, which enacted more stringent policies.
As western Europe and America’s eastern states managed to slow down the spread of the coronavirus in May, death rates soared in Latin America. Most countries imposed some sort of lockdown, either nationally or regionally, and saw a sharp decline in fatalities by July. Ecuador and Chile both seem to have passed their first wave; neither Brazil nor Mexico publishes national figures for excess deaths, but data from a few major cities show a similar pattern. Peru, however, suffered more fatalities in July than any previous month.
Outside western Europe and the Americas, only a handful of places release data about excess deaths. No such information exists for large swathes of Africa and Asia, where most civil registries only produce annual statistics after a considerable delay, and certificates for many deaths are never issued at all. Among the places where we have found recent data on excess deaths, the biggest spike has been in Moscow—which recorded 11,100 more fatalities than usual between April and June, compared with an official covid-19 toll of 3,800.
Correction: The data for deaths officially attributed to covid-19 in Chile were corrected on September 9th 2020. Apologies for this error.
www.economist.com
Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries
In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities
Graphic detail
JUL 15TH 2020
As covid-19 spread around the world, people have become grimly familiar with the death tolls that their governments publish each day. Unfortunately, the total number of fatalities caused by the pandemic may be even higher, for several reasons. First, the official statistics in many countries exclude victims who did not test positive for coronavirus before dying—which can be a substantial majority in places with little capacity for testing. Second, hospitals and civil registries may not process death certificates for several days, or even weeks, which creates lags in the data. And third, the pandemic has made it harder for doctors to treat other conditions and discouraged people from going to hospital, which may have indirectly caused an increase in fatalities from diseases other than covid-19.
One way to account for these methodological problems is to use a simpler measure, known as “excess deaths”: take the number of people who die from any cause in a given region and period, and then compare it with the recent historical average. Many Western countries, and a handful of nations and regions elsewhere, publish such data regularly. The table below shows that, in most places, the number of excess deaths is greater than the number of covid-19 fatalities officially recorded by governments in the same period.
The chart below uses data from EuroMOMO, a network of epidemiologists who collect weekly reports on deaths from all causes in 24 European countries, covering 350m people. These figures show that, compared with a historical baseline of 2009-19, Europe has suffered some deadly flu seasons since 2016—but that the death toll this year from covid-19 is far greater. Overall, the number of excess deaths across the continent since March is about 170,000. Though most of those victims have been older than 65, the number of deaths among Europeans aged 45-64 was 40% higher than usual in early April.
For some of the countries that publish data on excess deaths, we have been able to break the numbers down by region. The chart below allows you to explore these regional trends. The full data for each country and region, as well as our underlying code, can be downloaded from our GitHub repository.
Below are a second set of charts, comparing the number of excess deaths and official covid-19 deaths over time in each country. The lines on each chart represent excess deaths, and the shaded area represents the number of fatalities officially attributed to coronavirus by the government.
America has some of the largest regional disparities of any country. Big cities on the east coast were hit hard by covid-19 in March and April, but most other states locked down quickly enough to prevent major outbreaks. Overall, America’s’ rate of excess deaths per 100,000 people is lower than that of many western European countries.
However, the most recent weeks of excess-mortality data in America should be interpreted cautiously. Some states take at least a month to process death certificates, which means that the initial numbers they publish for a given week are substantial undercounts, creating the false impression of “negative” excess deaths.
At the same time that covid-19 was devastating New York, cities in western Europe were also suffering severe outbreaks. Britain, Spain, Italy and Belgium have some of the highest national excess-death rates in the world, after adjusting for the size of their populations. France and Portugal locked down comparatively early, given the number of positive tests at the time, and suffered fewer deaths.
European countries that are farther east and north have tended to have lower death rates. Governments in Germany and Austria ordered people to stay at home when they had relatively few confirmed cases. Sweden was one of the few countries that did not enforce a lockdown at all. It has endured a lower death rate than Britain or Spain, but a higher one than neighbouring Norway or Denmark, which enacted more stringent policies.
As western Europe and America’s eastern states managed to slow down the spread of the coronavirus in May, death rates soared in Latin America. Most countries imposed some sort of lockdown, either nationally or regionally, and saw a sharp decline in fatalities by July. Ecuador and Chile both seem to have passed their first wave; neither Brazil nor Mexico publishes national figures for excess deaths, but data from a few major cities show a similar pattern. Peru, however, suffered more fatalities in July than any previous month.
Outside western Europe and the Americas, only a handful of places release data about excess deaths. No such information exists for large swathes of Africa and Asia, where most civil registries only produce annual statistics after a considerable delay, and certificates for many deaths are never issued at all. Among the places where we have found recent data on excess deaths, the biggest spike has been in Moscow—which recorded 11,100 more fatalities than usual between April and June, compared with an official covid-19 toll of 3,800.
Correction: The data for deaths officially attributed to covid-19 in Chile were corrected on September 9th 2020. Apologies for this error.
Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries
In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities
