PRIME RATE 6.7% 了

CFC250

知名会员
注册
2008-10-15
消息
1,484
荣誉分数
340
声望点数
193
同意这个说法。其实几年前就开始用王理论炒房的现在压力应该不大
王的理论是建立在房价永远上涨的基础上的。。这样refinance 才能套现接着买下一套,形成滚雪球效应。。其实很多人根本不知道他是谁也是这么做的。。

房价下降甚至持平王的理论就完全不成立了。。而房价持平或是下降随着这一波的连续加息起码会持续至2024年。

疫情前买的房,价位相对不高,但如果在房价高点refinance ,按揭容量(负债率)也会增大,利率攀升,对这些人肯定会有影响。。
 

Vivien2001

知名会员
注册
2002-10-07
消息
509
荣誉分数
120
声望点数
153
王的理论是建立在房价永远上涨的基础上的。。这样refinance 才能套现接着买下一套,形成滚雪球效应。。其实很多人根本不知道他是谁也是这么做的。。

房价下降甚至持平王的理论就完全不成立了。。而房价持平或是下降随着这一波的连续加息起码会持续至2024年。

疫情前买的房,价位相对不高,但如果在房价高点refinance ,按揭容量(负债率)也会增大,利率攀升,对这些人肯定会有影响。。
正确,美国次债危机前所有人从买房的,银行,投行,央行,债券投资者都认同房价只会永远上涨,那时候次级债的信用评级全部是AA。后来呢?
 

奶夕

资深人士
注册
2010-09-07
消息
12,098
荣誉分数
60
声望点数
208
王的理论是建立在房价永远上涨的基础上的。。这样refinance 才能套现接着买下一套,形成滚雪球效应。。其实很多人根本不知道他是谁也是这么做的。。

房价下降甚至持平王的理论就完全不成立了。。而房价持平或是下降随着这一波的连续加息起码会持续至2024年。

疫情前买的房,价位相对不高,但如果在房价高点refinance ,按揭容量(负债率)也会增大,利率攀升,对这些人肯定会有影响。。
王大师自己早期先抛房了。。机智
 

ert0000

本站元老
VIP
注册
2005-12-07
消息
20,763
荣誉分数
5,373
声望点数
373
加拿大等世界主流媒体说,到23年底加拿大房市打75折




Canadian home prices set to drop by almost 25% by end of 2023: Desjardins​

But prices are still expected to be above the pre-pandemic level at the end of 2023
Author of the article:
Gigi Suhanic

Gigi Suhanic

Publishing date:
Aug 11, 2022 • August 11, 2022 • 3 minute read • 9 Comments
Desjardins says it's expecting a sharp correction in the housing market.
Desjardins says it's expecting a sharp correction in the housing market. ASHLEY FRASER, POSTMEDIA PHOTO BY ASHLEY FRASER/POSTMEDIA

Article content​

The average home price in Canada is expected to fall 23 per cent by the end of next year, predicts Desjardins Economics, in a significant downgrade to its earlier forecast.



“Canada’s housing market is correcting quickly, and faster than we anticipated in our downbeat June forecast,” Desjardins said. In the previous forecast, the Montreal-based financial services company predicted national home prices would fall 15 per cent during the same period.

However, Desjardins economists Randall Bartlett, Helène Begin and Marc Desormeaux said in their report Thursday that average housing prices have already dropped 15 per cent, or more than four per cent in “each of the three months through June.”



Add in rapidly falling home sales and rising borrowing costs as the Bank of Canada hikes rates, and the Desjardins team said their “gloomier” outlook was a done deal.



This adjustment is helping to bring some sanity back to Canadian real estate
DESJARDINS ECONOMICS
But the housing correction won’t be even across the country.



“We continue to believe that home prices will generally fall the most over the forecast in provinces that saw the largest gains during the pandemic,” the economists said.



Desjardins predicts New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and P.E.I. will bear the brunt of a sharply correcting market with prices falling by 29, 27 and 25 per cent, respectively, from the peak in February 2022 to December 2023 after having risen 71, 67 and 62 per cent from December 2019 to February 2022.



“We continue to believe that provinces that saw the biggest price gains during the pandemic are most likely to see the largest price corrections,” the economists wrote.



In B.C. and Ontario, Canada’s housing juggernauts, where “the correction … has been more abrupt than elsewhere,” Desjardins estimates that prices will fall 22 and 24 per cent, respectively, from the peak to December 2023. From December 2019 to February 2022, they rose 43 per cent and 58 per cent on an average basis.


For Ontario, Desjardins sees the “biggest price swings” in the Greater Toronto Area.



“However, we expect the pace of price decline to slow as international immigration, return to work and improved affordability provide tailwinds to the housing market going forward,” the economists said.



In Quebec, the correction has been “less severe,” the report said, noting it expects prices to correct 17 per cent by December 2023 after rising 51 per cent from the end of 2019 to the peak in February of this year.



Desjardins expects Quebec to fare better because homes are cheaper — the average price there was $510,000 in April compared with $1 million in Ontario in February — and Quebecers are in “better financial shape.”



The energy-producing provinces of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Newfoundland are poised to fare the best during this tumultuous period.



“They’re now benefiting from post-pandemic tailwinds, largely in the form of higher commodity prices. The resulting job creation and workers it attracts from across the country will provide support to existing home sales and prices,” the Desjardins economists said.



Prices in those three provinces are forecast to drop a more modest four, nine and 11 per cent, respectively, from the peak to December 2023 after having risen 13, 23 and 26 per cent.



But there is a “silver lining” to Desjardins’ outlook.



The economists noted the pace of decline in sales has cooled since accelerating in the spring.



Also, despite the double-digit corrections across the country, prices will nonetheless remain above pre-pandemic levels.
 

lili25777

初级老帮菜
注册
2013-03-14
消息
11,281
荣誉分数
2,937
声望点数
373
王的理论是建立在房价永远上涨的基础上的。。这样refinance 才能套现接着买下一套,形成滚雪球效应。。其实很多人根本不知道他是谁也是这么做的。。

房价下降甚至持平王的理论就完全不成立了。。而房价持平或是下降随着这一波的连续加息起码会持续至2024年。

疫情前买的房,价位相对不高,但如果在房价高点refinance ,按揭容量(负债率)也会增大,利率攀升,对这些人肯定会有影响。。
这人性啊,突然发现一条无本万利或者小本暴利的道儿,尤其尝过甜头,能收的了手吗?:wall:尤其三月份前那持续一年多的疯狂劲儿,有几个把持的住,那是不栽个大跟头绝对拉不回来
 

lili25777

初级老帮菜
注册
2013-03-14
消息
11,281
荣誉分数
2,937
声望点数
373
加拿大等世界主流媒体说,到23年底加拿大房市打75折




Canadian home prices set to drop by almost 25% by end of 2023: Desjardins​

But prices are still expected to be above the pre-pandemic level at the end of 2023
Author of the article:
Gigi Suhanic

Gigi Suhanic

Publishing date:
Aug 11, 2022 • August 11, 2022 • 3 minute read • 9 Comments
Desjardins says it's expecting a sharp correction in the housing market.'s expecting a sharp correction in the housing market.
Desjardins says it's expecting a sharp correction in the housing market. ASHLEY FRASER, POSTMEDIA PHOTO BY ASHLEY FRASER/POSTMEDIA

Article content​

The average home price in Canada is expected to fall 23 per cent by the end of next year, predicts Desjardins Economics, in a significant downgrade to its earlier forecast.



“Canada’s housing market is correcting quickly, and faster than we anticipated in our downbeat June forecast,” Desjardins said. In the previous forecast, the Montreal-based financial services company predicted national home prices would fall 15 per cent during the same period.

However, Desjardins economists Randall Bartlett, Helène Begin and Marc Desormeaux said in their report Thursday that average housing prices have already dropped 15 per cent, or more than four per cent in “each of the three months through June.”



Add in rapidly falling home sales and rising borrowing costs as the Bank of Canada hikes rates, and the Desjardins team said their “gloomier” outlook was a done deal.




But the housing correction won’t be even across the country.



“We continue to believe that home prices will generally fall the most over the forecast in provinces that saw the largest gains during the pandemic,” the economists said.



Desjardins predicts New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and P.E.I. will bear the brunt of a sharply correcting market with prices falling by 29, 27 and 25 per cent, respectively, from the peak in February 2022 to December 2023 after having risen 71, 67 and 62 per cent from December 2019 to February 2022.



“We continue to believe that provinces that saw the biggest price gains during the pandemic are most likely to see the largest price corrections,” the economists wrote.



In B.C. and Ontario, Canada’s housing juggernauts, where “the correction … has been more abrupt than elsewhere,” Desjardins estimates that prices will fall 22 and 24 per cent, respectively, from the peak to December 2023. From December 2019 to February 2022, they rose 43 per cent and 58 per cent on an average basis.


For Ontario, Desjardins sees the “biggest price swings” in the Greater Toronto Area.



“However, we expect the pace of price decline to slow as international immigration, return to work and improved affordability provide tailwinds to the housing market going forward,” the economists said.



In Quebec, the correction has been “less severe,” the report said, noting it expects prices to correct 17 per cent by December 2023 after rising 51 per cent from the end of 2019 to the peak in February of this year.



Desjardins expects Quebec to fare better because homes are cheaper — the average price there was $510,000 in April compared with $1 million in Ontario in February — and Quebecers are in “better financial shape.”



The energy-producing provinces of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Newfoundland are poised to fare the best during this tumultuous period.



“They’re now benefiting from post-pandemic tailwinds, largely in the form of higher commodity prices. The resulting job creation and workers it attracts from across the country will provide support to existing home sales and prices,” the Desjardins economists said.



Prices in those three provinces are forecast to drop a more modest four, nine and 11 per cent, respectively, from the peak to December 2023 after having risen 13, 23 and 26 per cent.



But there is a “silver lining” to Desjardins’ outlook.



The economists noted the pace of decline in sales has cooled since accelerating in the spring.



Also, despite the double-digit corrections across the country, prices will nonetheless remain above pre-pandemic levels.
这要一年前说,呼啦啦都是板砖:buttrock:这帮预测机构疯狂时期都咋说的?
 

HappyWorld

新手上路
注册
2015-07-10
消息
167
荣誉分数
35
声望点数
38
及时75折也还是比疫情前贵不少,房多的地主还是赚很多
 

ert0000

本站元老
VIP
注册
2005-12-07
消息
20,763
荣誉分数
5,373
声望点数
373
及时75折也还是比疫情前贵不少,房多的地主还是赚很多

75折说法很客气啦。

看看很多22年2月卖80万的TOWNHOUSE, 疫情前很多也就50-55万, 如果按75折的说法,就是60万。其实现在很多都跌破了60万,正在往55万挺进
 

CFC250

知名会员
注册
2008-10-15
消息
1,484
荣誉分数
340
声望点数
193
75折说法很客气啦。

看看很多22年2月卖80万的TOWNHOUSE, 疫情前很多也就50-55万, 如果按75折的说法,就是60万。其实现在很多都跌破了60万,正在往55万挺进
跌破60万的,就是年初也卖不到80万。。

你家周围RR 的townhouse下70万了吗?low 70都没有
 

lili25777

初级老帮菜
注册
2013-03-14
消息
11,281
荣誉分数
2,937
声望点数
373
跌破60万的,就是年初也卖不到80万。。

你家周围RR 的townhouse下70万了吗?low 70都没有
大明白都在你们坎屯呢,这瑞士信贷和德意志银行快爆了,谁给讲讲和加拿大的金融以及咱投资房的关系?想着咬紧牙关干挺着过两年的不在少数,别跟国内查税一样,开始说倒查三年,现在都倒查十年了:wall:别挺着挺着真挺不住了
 

说不得的微博

新手上路
注册
2014-03-31
消息
202
荣誉分数
86
声望点数
38
大明白都在你们坎屯呢,这瑞士信贷和德意志银行快爆了,谁给讲讲和加拿大的金融以及咱投资房的关系?想着咬紧牙关干挺着过两年的不在少数,别跟国内查税一样,开始说倒查三年,现在都倒查十年了:wall:别挺着挺着真挺不住了

加拿大五大银行保守,这种事不参与。最近地产界好象跟政府讲,一要重新订stress test 标准,百分之二时定的杠杠已不适用,二要Amortization延长到四十年,否则整个产业躺平,给银行color see see.最后依次类推到土豆面前。应该年底前有结果,当然也要看数据。
 

奶夕

资深人士
注册
2010-09-07
消息
12,098
荣誉分数
60
声望点数
208
明年继续打折,买房一时爽,明年政府出手查你。。。。。。
 

MAP2012

知名会员
注册
2012-10-18
消息
1,190
荣誉分数
329
声望点数
193
加拿大五大银行保守,这种事不参与。最近地产界好象跟政府讲,一要重新订stress test 标准,百分之二时定的杠杠已不适用,二要Amortization延长到四十年,否则整个产业躺平,给银行color see see.最后依次类推到土豆面前。应该年底前有结果,当然也要看数据。
现在的投资方式,只要是大银行都跑不了。严重程度不同而已
 

说不得的微博

新手上路
注册
2014-03-31
消息
202
荣誉分数
86
声望点数
38
现在的投资方式,只要是大银行都跑不了。严重程度不同而已
这属金融体系的风险,不是经营风险,如果加息上去一定有国家和金融机构爆雷,看看刚才新闻,联合国都出动了。个人觉得美联储今年因为中期选举操之过急,上轮加息还沒发挥作用,又开始下一轮加息。所以马斯克确实沒说错,联储依赖的数据有问题,老鲍或者耶伦可能要走人了。
 

MAP2012

知名会员
注册
2012-10-18
消息
1,190
荣誉分数
329
声望点数
193
我的意思是单一银行的经营风险会有传递效应
 
顶部