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文/霍金斯（华盛顿）By Charles F. Hawkins
3月20日的台湾“总统”选举，在一片沸腾的气氛中结束。岛上80％的选民前往投票，陈水扁以0.2％或者少过3万张选票的微差，击败挑战者连战，连任“总统”。不过，只有少过50％的选民对备受争议的公投议题投了票。
总的来说，我认为选举结果对北京利大于弊。陈水扁只是险胜连战，没有获得选民强大的委任来进行任何改革。两项公投均不获支持，更显示人们希望维持现状。
北京却不这么认为。选举后的头几天，人们根本无法猜测中国领导人的看法。当我在济南、北京和沈阳的时候，我在新加坡和上海的一些通讯员朋友和同事，纷纷通过电邮，向我询问北京对选举结果的立场。我的答案是“没什么”。
大约一个星期后，人们对北京的反应才有了点头绪。当泛蓝支持者展开示威，质疑选举舞弊后，中国大陆含糊地表示如果台湾局势失控，“危害台海地区的稳定”，北京将不会坐视不管。
布什政府向陈水扁发出祝贺声明后，中国便把矛头转向美国，指责华盛顿干预中国的内政。
当我抵达上海时，根据中国大陆的“勉强”反应，一些朋友和同事开始对台湾选举提出意见。上海是我最近到中国两个星期行程里的最后一站。
一名上海《东方早报》的年轻记者问我，台湾的选举结果和北京的反应，会对中美关系造成什么影响？我的答案依然是“没什么”。她一再追问，我的答案还是一样。
北京对于台湾选举所发出的两项声明，都不是针对选举的结果，而是和选后的局势发展有关。
台湾人有走上街头示威的权力，台湾政府也允许人们在不违法的情况下示威。北京却对此作出反应。
布什总统出于礼貌祝贺陈水扁当选，并没有什么不妥的地方，也受到北京的批评。
如果一个民选总统向另一个民选总统表示祝贺也算是干预内政，那一小块冰而不是一座冰山，就足以击沉铁达尼号。
事态接下来会如何发展呢？台湾的局势应该会逐渐平息。选票大概会重算，台湾的三大政党已经对此达成理性的共识。不过，陈水扁之后能不能够保住“总统”宝座，对北京来说并没有什么特别意义。
因为陈水扁只是险胜，两项公投也都不通过，在接下来的四年，北京可能会发现，和陈水扁打交道，并不如一般人（包括我自己）选前所预测的那么困难。
同样的，尽管北京不满美国向陈水扁发出祝贺声明，中美将一如以往保持良好的关系，双方也会进一步改善关系。
这只是一场选举，四年后还会有另一次选举。让我们预先祝贺下一任的“总统”。
・作者是美国资深防务问题分析家，曾在美军步兵作战部队服役，广泛游历亚洲。此文专供本报发表，叶琦保译。（来源：联合早报）
Taiwan election outcomes a net plus for Beijing
Taiwan's presidential campaign came to a boiling close on Saturday, March 20, as 80 per cent of the island's electorate went to the polls and selected Chen Shui-bian over challenger Lien Chan by the narrowest of margins―less than 0.2 percent, or under 30,000 votes.
Fewer than 50 per cent of voters, however, cast ballots for or against Chen's controversial referendum initiative, so there it remained, stillborn at the polling booths.
All in all, I would call the election outcomes a net plus for Beijing. Chen squeaked past Lien, which hardly gives him an unassailable mandate for change. Failure of referendum votes to even be counted reinforces the widely held wish on the island to maintain the status quo.
Beijing doesn't see it that way.
In fact, for the first few days after the election it was difficult to tell what, if anything, Beijing was thinking.
Correspondents and colleagues from Singapore to Shanghai were sending e-mail asking if I was learning anything about Beijing's position on the election. My answer, from Jinan, to Beijing, to Shenyang, was a uniform “not a thing.”
It took a week to get a glimpse of Chinese Communist Party thinking. After Pan-Blue protests had mounted over presumed election irregularities, leaders in Zhongnanhai offered the vague notion that they would intervene if the protests got out of hand and “threatened cross-strait stability.”
Then, after the Bush Administration sent congratulations to Chen for his slender electoral success, Beijing regained some of its rhetorical fire and accused Washington of meddling in China's internal affairs.
By the time I arrived in Shanghai on the last leg of a two-week China visit, colleagues and friends were venturing their opinions on the Taiwan election based on Beijing's apparently reluctant response.
“What effect will the results of Taiwan's election and Beijing's response have on Sino-U.S. relations,” a young reporter from Oriental Morning Post in Shanghai wanted to know? My answer, echoing the early silence of Beijing, was: “Not a thing.” The reporter pressed her point, and my answer remained the same. Beijing's dual pronouncements regarding Taiwan's election, are not based on the election results, but on processes.
Taiwan's people have a right to protest, and government institutions have allowed those protests to go forward under legal guidelines. That's process.
President George W. Bush is both correct and polite to send congratulations to Chen as the re-elected leader of Taiwan. But, again, China criticises the U.S. administration based on form, not substance.
If congratulatory messages from one elected official to another constitute meddling in internal affairs, then an ice cube instead of an iceberg would have sunk the Titanic.
So, where does all this leave us?
Things will calm down on Taiwan. Ballots cast on March 20 will likely be recounted, as the three major parties have agreed to do this in a rational, measured way. Based on the recount, Chen may or may not retain the presidency, but it shouldn't make much difference to Beijing in any event.
Because of the narrow victory and the failure of referendum votes to count, Chen may turn out to be easier for Beijing to deal with in the next four years than some forecast before the election (myself included).
By the same token, Sino-U.S. relations will continue to be as strong as they have been in many years, and congratulatory messages notwithstanding, good works between China and the United States are likely to continue and improve.
It's an election. There will be another in four years. Congratulations to the next winner.
(The writer is a senior defence analyst in Washington,D.C., retired veteran of infantry combat, and a frequent visitor to Asia. He contributes this article to Lianhe Zaobao.)
3月20日的台湾“总统”选举，在一片沸腾的气氛中结束。岛上80％的选民前往投票，陈水扁以0.2％或者少过3万张选票的微差，击败挑战者连战，连任“总统”。不过，只有少过50％的选民对备受争议的公投议题投了票。
总的来说，我认为选举结果对北京利大于弊。陈水扁只是险胜连战，没有获得选民强大的委任来进行任何改革。两项公投均不获支持，更显示人们希望维持现状。
北京却不这么认为。选举后的头几天，人们根本无法猜测中国领导人的看法。当我在济南、北京和沈阳的时候，我在新加坡和上海的一些通讯员朋友和同事，纷纷通过电邮，向我询问北京对选举结果的立场。我的答案是“没什么”。
大约一个星期后，人们对北京的反应才有了点头绪。当泛蓝支持者展开示威，质疑选举舞弊后，中国大陆含糊地表示如果台湾局势失控，“危害台海地区的稳定”，北京将不会坐视不管。
布什政府向陈水扁发出祝贺声明后，中国便把矛头转向美国，指责华盛顿干预中国的内政。
当我抵达上海时，根据中国大陆的“勉强”反应，一些朋友和同事开始对台湾选举提出意见。上海是我最近到中国两个星期行程里的最后一站。
一名上海《东方早报》的年轻记者问我，台湾的选举结果和北京的反应，会对中美关系造成什么影响？我的答案依然是“没什么”。她一再追问，我的答案还是一样。
北京对于台湾选举所发出的两项声明，都不是针对选举的结果，而是和选后的局势发展有关。
台湾人有走上街头示威的权力，台湾政府也允许人们在不违法的情况下示威。北京却对此作出反应。
布什总统出于礼貌祝贺陈水扁当选，并没有什么不妥的地方，也受到北京的批评。
如果一个民选总统向另一个民选总统表示祝贺也算是干预内政，那一小块冰而不是一座冰山，就足以击沉铁达尼号。
事态接下来会如何发展呢？台湾的局势应该会逐渐平息。选票大概会重算，台湾的三大政党已经对此达成理性的共识。不过，陈水扁之后能不能够保住“总统”宝座，对北京来说并没有什么特别意义。
因为陈水扁只是险胜，两项公投也都不通过，在接下来的四年，北京可能会发现，和陈水扁打交道，并不如一般人（包括我自己）选前所预测的那么困难。
同样的，尽管北京不满美国向陈水扁发出祝贺声明，中美将一如以往保持良好的关系，双方也会进一步改善关系。
这只是一场选举，四年后还会有另一次选举。让我们预先祝贺下一任的“总统”。
・作者是美国资深防务问题分析家，曾在美军步兵作战部队服役，广泛游历亚洲。此文专供本报发表，叶琦保译。（来源：联合早报）
Taiwan election outcomes a net plus for Beijing
Taiwan's presidential campaign came to a boiling close on Saturday, March 20, as 80 per cent of the island's electorate went to the polls and selected Chen Shui-bian over challenger Lien Chan by the narrowest of margins―less than 0.2 percent, or under 30,000 votes.
Fewer than 50 per cent of voters, however, cast ballots for or against Chen's controversial referendum initiative, so there it remained, stillborn at the polling booths.
All in all, I would call the election outcomes a net plus for Beijing. Chen squeaked past Lien, which hardly gives him an unassailable mandate for change. Failure of referendum votes to even be counted reinforces the widely held wish on the island to maintain the status quo.
Beijing doesn't see it that way.
In fact, for the first few days after the election it was difficult to tell what, if anything, Beijing was thinking.
Correspondents and colleagues from Singapore to Shanghai were sending e-mail asking if I was learning anything about Beijing's position on the election. My answer, from Jinan, to Beijing, to Shenyang, was a uniform “not a thing.”
It took a week to get a glimpse of Chinese Communist Party thinking. After Pan-Blue protests had mounted over presumed election irregularities, leaders in Zhongnanhai offered the vague notion that they would intervene if the protests got out of hand and “threatened cross-strait stability.”
Then, after the Bush Administration sent congratulations to Chen for his slender electoral success, Beijing regained some of its rhetorical fire and accused Washington of meddling in China's internal affairs.
By the time I arrived in Shanghai on the last leg of a two-week China visit, colleagues and friends were venturing their opinions on the Taiwan election based on Beijing's apparently reluctant response.
“What effect will the results of Taiwan's election and Beijing's response have on Sino-U.S. relations,” a young reporter from Oriental Morning Post in Shanghai wanted to know? My answer, echoing the early silence of Beijing, was: “Not a thing.” The reporter pressed her point, and my answer remained the same. Beijing's dual pronouncements regarding Taiwan's election, are not based on the election results, but on processes.
Taiwan's people have a right to protest, and government institutions have allowed those protests to go forward under legal guidelines. That's process.
President George W. Bush is both correct and polite to send congratulations to Chen as the re-elected leader of Taiwan. But, again, China criticises the U.S. administration based on form, not substance.
If congratulatory messages from one elected official to another constitute meddling in internal affairs, then an ice cube instead of an iceberg would have sunk the Titanic.
So, where does all this leave us?
Things will calm down on Taiwan. Ballots cast on March 20 will likely be recounted, as the three major parties have agreed to do this in a rational, measured way. Based on the recount, Chen may or may not retain the presidency, but it shouldn't make much difference to Beijing in any event.
Because of the narrow victory and the failure of referendum votes to count, Chen may turn out to be easier for Beijing to deal with in the next four years than some forecast before the election (myself included).
By the same token, Sino-U.S. relations will continue to be as strong as they have been in many years, and congratulatory messages notwithstanding, good works between China and the United States are likely to continue and improve.
It's an election. There will be another in four years. Congratulations to the next winner.
(The writer is a senior defence analyst in Washington,D.C., retired veteran of infantry combat, and a frequent visitor to Asia. He contributes this article to Lianhe Zaobao.)
