Nortel是完蛋了吗？

[kitaro]

CEO被fire了，股票跌了近30％，我都快哭死了！

 

[Wanderer]

最初由 kitaro 发布
CEO被fire了，股票跌了近30％，我都快哭死了！

Revolution is coming.

 

[gdntfrank]

I am also worrying. Cause Nortel has just started hiring new graduates and
some of my friends got offer. I don't know how long these chances can last.

 

[LostRabbit]

最初由 kitaro 发布
CEO被fire了，股票跌了近30％，我都快哭死了！

When NT jumped to C$11, someone on the stock forum encourage people to look good on NT even though this guy sell all NT at around C$11. My wife wanted to buy at that time, I told her that commen sense told me NT was not so good as this BULL guy said.

Now NT is C$5.5. Commen sense told me it is NOT so bad as most people think now. But wait for a couple of days till stable, if you want to buy back this cheap baby.

 

[CA2000]

I think Nortel may announce another round of lay off to get the money back.

最初由 gdntfrank 发布
I am also worrying. Cause Nortel has just started hiring new graduates and
some of my friends got offer. I don't know how long these chances can last.

 

[gdntfrank]

No, they already laid off too many people and not enough people to get
the job done. That's why optical department start hiring.

 

[Shamanlord]

............

 

[土鳖虫]

实际情况倒应该是不坏的。我应该指出的是下面的重要信息来自公司的独立审核结果：

a reduction of approximately 50 percent in previously announced net earnings
for 2003; these amounts will largely be reported in prior periods, resulting
in a reduction in previously reported net losses for such periods including
2002 and 2001;
a reported net loss for the first half of 2003 compared to the previously
announced net earnings for that period;
no material impact to prior period revenues; and
no material impact to the Company's cash balance as at Dec. 31, 2003.

请大家注意这几点：2003年的盈利应该减少50%，但原来伸报的这多出来的50%应该属
于前面两年2001，2002年的盈利，也就是说：2001，2002年多报了将进50%的损失。

最后，最重要的一点是：公司的Cash Balance 没有实质的影响. 这也是我以前说的，
无论你的帐目数字怎么改，你存在银行里的钱不可能多出来，也不可能少下去。所
以，北电在银行里面的金钱仍然是40亿美元左右。即使减掉2004年第一季度的花费
(因第一季报表未出，如果第一季盈利的话，还能增加公司现金储备)，还有36亿美
元的现金。

一定有人会问：即然公司的最后现金结余没变，为什么公司管财务的总监还要把每年
的盈利数字变来变去呢？这主要跟一个公司自己的盈利政策有关。因为NT规定了，
只要公司盈利了，公司所有员工都可得到按百分比的盈利提成。所以，一种可能的
做法是：与其把几年的盈利分摊成很少的盈利(这样分成就很少)，不如把几年的盈
利放到一年(这样盈利分成就很多)，而把其他几年报成亏损。不管上面这种做法是
有意还是为无意，它都违反了SEC的规定，虽然这不影响公司真正的业绩。所以，NT的
情况是和ENRON和WORLDCOM 有本质的区别。

 

[LostRabbit]

您好象就是那位在NT快到11块时出手赚了一个BMW的先生吧。非常敬佩您在NT11块时激流勇退的勇气。以及对股民们表示出来的您对NT的信心(尽管你已经抛掉)。

能否请您解释上次在NT跌到8元平台时仍然出来站台，鼓励人们对NT充满信心
现在在8元附近买进的人又套牢20-30%，跌到5-6元平台你两次登台，要人们对NT充满信心的理由?

您现在自己进货了吗?

最初由 土鳖虫 发布
实际情况倒应该是不坏的。我应该指出的是下面的重要信息来自公司的独立审核结果：

a reduction of approximately 50 percent in previously announced net earnings
for 2003; these amounts will largely be reported in prior periods, resulting
in a reduction in previously reported net losses for such periods including
2002 and 2001;
a reported net loss for the first half of 2003 compared to the previously
announced net earnings for that period;
no material impact to prior period revenues; and
no material impact to the Company's cash balance as at Dec. 31, 2003.

请大家注意这几点：2003年的盈利应该减少50%，但原来伸报的这多出来的50%应该属
于前面两年2001，2002年的盈利，也就是说：2001，2002年多报了将进50%的损失。

最后，最重要的一点是：公司的Cash Balance 没有实质的影响. 这也是我以前说的，
无论你的帐目数字怎么改，你存在银行里的钱不可能多出来，也不可能少下去。所
以，北电在银行里面的金钱仍然是40亿美元左右。即使减掉2004年第一季度的花费
(因第一季报表未出，如果第一季盈利的话，还能增加公司现金储备)，还有36亿美
元的现金。

一定有人会问：即然公司的最后现金结余没变，为什么公司管财务的总监还要把每年
的盈利数字变来变去呢？这主要跟一个公司自己的盈利政策有关。因为NT规定了，
只要公司盈利了，公司所有员工都可得到按百分比的盈利提成。所以，一种可能的
做法是：与其把几年的盈利分摊成很少的盈利(这样分成就很少)，不如把几年的盈
利放到一年(这样盈利分成就很多)，而把其他几年报成亏损。不管上面这种做法是
有意还是为无意，它都违反了SEC的规定，虽然这不影响公司真正的业绩。所以，NT的
情况是和ENRON和WORLDCOM 有本质的区别。

 

[Mooney's Bay]

1, The management of NT is very bad. the company never can be good if management is bad.
2, The cash will become thin, since NT need to pay large amount for laywer suits and fine this time. Even RCMP is investigating this criminal issue.
3, credit banks may requires money back.
4, NT has no credit any more.
5, NT is going to bankrupt soon I think

 

[destro]

最初由 Mooney's Bay 发布
1, The management of NT is very bad. the company never can be good if management is bad.
2, The cash will become thin, since NT need to pay large amount for laywer suits and fine this time. Even RCMP is investigating this criminal issue.
3, credit banks may requires money back.
4, NT has no credit any more.
5, NT is going to bankrupt soon I think

Well, the management can be changed. As long as they have Cash, there is hope.

 

[Josephf]

最初由 destro 发布



Well, the management can be changed. As long as they have Cash, there is hope.

Cash flow status can change very quickly, eg, banks asked NT to pay back money. That can make their cash from 1BL to 0 within 1 day.

 

[土鳖虫]

最初由 smartrabbit 发布
您好象就是那位在NT快到11块时出手赚了一个BMW的先生吧。非常敬佩您在NT11块时激流勇退的勇气。以及对股民们表示出来的您对NT的信心(尽管你已经抛掉)。

能否请您解释上次在NT跌到8元平台时仍然出来站台，鼓励人们对NT充满信心
现在在8元附近买进的人又套牢20-30%，跌到5-6元平台你两次登台，要人们对NT充满信心的理由?

您现在自己进货了吗?

能解释一下我对我的股票运作和对NT的理解跟别人卖出买进有什么必要的联系吗？假
如我给出了错误的引导(我相信我的贴子都有事实为依据，至少是NT的财务报表为依
据)，那么你一定要相信我吗？假如你不认为我的观点是正确的，我欢迎你反驳啊，
只要你说的有理就是了。

另外，我觉得我应该告知你一点儿股市运作的常识：投资任何股票都是有风险的，
你的投资决定决不应该把后果寄托在别人的评论身上，否则，你现在在某个股票上
丢了钱你就责备别人，那将来你又赚了会来，你是否还要给别人报酬？

 

[oread]

This is turning into a full-blown scandal, and we haven't heard the really juicy stuff yet.


Asked by an analyst whether the investigation was looking into the possibility of fraud, Wilson replied that "it would be inappropriate to provide specifics."

http://www.canada.com/ottawa/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=b558b89b-4ce0-4d79-8f36-584248fb4474

 

[土鳖虫]

最初由 Josephf 发布


Cash flow status can change very quickly, eg, banks asked NT to pay back money. That can make their cash from 1BL to 0 within 1 day.

This is a wrong statement. Here what we talking abount is a Cash Balance after an independent account review results from today's annocement. A Cash Balance from an annual report reflects all the earnings less the expenses, where is the bank's payback money request coming from? Do you think some lender to NT will say: Hay, you(NT) still own me unpaid money. If you are a lender to NT, you will get your money all the day availabe not wait until NT tells you that they own you money.