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好啦，赶紧盯住ＮＴ把，这又是一个机会。别因为辩论把机会丢了。
Nortel是完蛋了吗？
- 主题发起人 kitaro
- 开始时间
deepbluesee
新手上路
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算, 我放弃了.
Mooney's Bay
知名会员
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One more article why NT might have no more cash to bankrupt soon.
BTW NT has cash 3.6B, debt is 3.9B
Nortel's new chief inherits shaky credit situation
By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Wed, Apr 28, 2004 4:00 PM EST
The latest shake up at Nortel Networks has left the company at risk of default and of losing the financial support of Economic Development Canada, but new CEO William Olsen remains confident the company has the resources to weather the storm.
Wednesday morning, Nortel fired with cause CEO Frank Dunn, and suspended financial executives Doug Beatty and Michael Gollogly. The company postponed its Q1 results due Thursday, warned its restatements many chop last year's earnings by 50 per cent and said it will miss a May 29 filing deadline.
Missing that deadline gives the EDC the right to yank $750 million in financial support for the company. Half of that money has already been committed by EDC.
EDC has already granted Nortel a waiver that extended the financial support through May when the company failed to file its 2003 financial statements earlier this year. Nortel is in the midst of attempting to obtain another waiver from EDC.
"There can be no assurance that Nortel will receive a new waiver or as to the terms of any such waiver," Nortel said Wednesday.
To retain EDC's financial support, Nortel must also maintain a minimum credit rating of B-minus from Standard & Poor's Ratings Service and B3 from Moody's Investors Service Inc.
Wednesday afternoon, S&P cut its rating on Nortel to that key threshold.
The ratings agency cut Nortel's long-term corporate credit rating by one notch to "B-minus." S&P said its short-term rating on Nortel is unchanged but remains under review. S&P warned it could make additional changes in the near future depending on how Nortel's situation plays out.
If Nortel fails to file restated financial results by June 30, it will also be at risk of default on US$3.9 billion in notes and bonds. If one quarter of the debt holders in any one class give notice, Nortel would be forced to accelerate the repayment of its debt.
In a statement Wednesday morning, Nortel said it would be forced to find new sources of financing if that came to pass. In an interview with Reuters later in the day, Owens declined to say if Nortel would dip into its cash reserve of US$3.6 billion to meet its obligations.
"We will be working with the debt holders. We feel very confident of our ability to do the right thing with that cash. Both the CFO and I are comfortable with where we are with that. So we think there's sufficient liquidity," he said.
With its credit ratings languishing deep in junk territory, any fresh financing for the company would carry a stiff price tag.
Despite the challenges ahead, Owen said he is at the helm of Nortel for the long haul.
"You should envision me as the longer term leader of Nortel. This was not taken as a caretaker or interim CEO and my commitment is for the long term," he told Reuters.
BTW NT has cash 3.6B, debt is 3.9B
Nortel's new chief inherits shaky credit situation
By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Wed, Apr 28, 2004 4:00 PM EST
The latest shake up at Nortel Networks has left the company at risk of default and of losing the financial support of Economic Development Canada, but new CEO William Olsen remains confident the company has the resources to weather the storm.
Wednesday morning, Nortel fired with cause CEO Frank Dunn, and suspended financial executives Doug Beatty and Michael Gollogly. The company postponed its Q1 results due Thursday, warned its restatements many chop last year's earnings by 50 per cent and said it will miss a May 29 filing deadline.
Missing that deadline gives the EDC the right to yank $750 million in financial support for the company. Half of that money has already been committed by EDC.
EDC has already granted Nortel a waiver that extended the financial support through May when the company failed to file its 2003 financial statements earlier this year. Nortel is in the midst of attempting to obtain another waiver from EDC.
"There can be no assurance that Nortel will receive a new waiver or as to the terms of any such waiver," Nortel said Wednesday.
To retain EDC's financial support, Nortel must also maintain a minimum credit rating of B-minus from Standard & Poor's Ratings Service and B3 from Moody's Investors Service Inc.
Wednesday afternoon, S&P cut its rating on Nortel to that key threshold.
The ratings agency cut Nortel's long-term corporate credit rating by one notch to "B-minus." S&P said its short-term rating on Nortel is unchanged but remains under review. S&P warned it could make additional changes in the near future depending on how Nortel's situation plays out.
If Nortel fails to file restated financial results by June 30, it will also be at risk of default on US$3.9 billion in notes and bonds. If one quarter of the debt holders in any one class give notice, Nortel would be forced to accelerate the repayment of its debt.
In a statement Wednesday morning, Nortel said it would be forced to find new sources of financing if that came to pass. In an interview with Reuters later in the day, Owens declined to say if Nortel would dip into its cash reserve of US$3.6 billion to meet its obligations.
"We will be working with the debt holders. We feel very confident of our ability to do the right thing with that cash. Both the CFO and I are comfortable with where we are with that. So we think there's sufficient liquidity," he said.
With its credit ratings languishing deep in junk territory, any fresh financing for the company would carry a stiff price tag.
Despite the challenges ahead, Owen said he is at the helm of Nortel for the long haul.
"You should envision me as the longer term leader of Nortel. This was not taken as a caretaker or interim CEO and my commitment is for the long term," he told Reuters.
推荐大家一篇路透社今天关于NT的文章，多听听不同意见总是好的吧，至少它能帮助
你作出你自己的判断：
Reuters
US CREDIT-Investors split over Nortel firings
Wednesday April 28, 4:24 pm ET
NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Credit investors were
ambivalent about Nortel Networks Corp. (Toronto:NT.TO - News; NYSE:NT - News) on
Wednesday after the company fired its three top executives and
said ongoing accounting problems may run deeper than expected.
The news sent the cost of Nortel credit protection sharply
higher, suggesting that investors see a rising risk of the
company defaulting. The company's stock price plummeted almost
30 percent as investors fretted that a full-blown financial
scandal was building.
But bond investors were not quite as concerned and are
still valuing Nortel's debt around par. Many market watchers
believe that whatever near-term troubles the company has, a
blow-up of Enron proportions is unlikely.
"The company should weather this storm," said Scott
MacDonald, a bond analyst for Aladdin Capital who owns Nortel
stock but not its bonds. "We have to wait and see in terms of
their financial restating, but I think there is survivability
built into the balance sheet."
Nortel said it expected a restatement of 2003 results to
cut earnings by about 50 percent, but losses for prior years
would be reduced.
The cost of insuring Nortel against default rose to 362
basis points, or $362,000 per year for every $10 million of
principal insured, from about 250 basis points on Tuesday,
traders said.
Credit default spreads of that magnitude mean that
investors are demanding to be compensated as if there were
about a 5 percent chance of the company defaulting on its debt,
up from a 3.3 percent chance on Tuesday.
That compensation accounts for risks that fall short of the
company actually defaulting, such as the risk that the
company's bonds will fall further.
But while the credit derivatives market braced for further
bad news from the company, corporate bond investors still price
Nortel debt around par, suggesting that they are not
particularly worried about default.
"They're lulled by Nortel's liquidity and by the fact that
(Nortel) has raised money," said Margaret Patel, high-yield
portfolio manager for Pioneer Investment Management, who does
not own Nortel debt. "Also, all the restatements are referring
to history as opposed to looking forward."
Standard & Poor's took a skeptical view. It cut Nortel's
long-term corporate credit rating to "B-minus," its
sixth-highest junk rating, from "B."
Nortel said the restatement would not affect its cash
balance, which stood at about $3.6 billion on March 31. The
company does not face a major bond maturity until 2006, when
about C$2.3 billion comes due, analysts said.
Nortel's 6-1/8 percent notes of 2006 fell 2 cents on the
dollar on Wednesday to 100.75 cents on the dollar.
The accounting debacle is a disappointment to credit
investors who had cheered Nortel's comeback story. After losing
more than $27 billion in 2001 when telecommunications spending
cratered, Nortel staunched the red ink by by slashing costs and
improving its product mix.
One consolation for credit investors is that the company
apparently has not manipulated revenues, said Ping Zhao, an
analyst for independent research firm CreditSights.
Still, there is cause for concern, she said.
"My suspicion is that there is something quite major in
cost impairment to warrant the firing," she said.
Analysts' view is that Nortel's bonds could move lower, but
not dramatically.
"You've seen this company go from having huge problems in
terms of revenues slumping on regular basis and profitability
not being there at all to moving in the right direction and
turning around," said Aladdin Capital's MacDonald.
(Additional reporting by Dan Wilchins)
你作出你自己的判断：
Reuters
US CREDIT-Investors split over Nortel firings
Wednesday April 28, 4:24 pm ET
NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Credit investors were
ambivalent about Nortel Networks Corp. (Toronto:NT.TO - News; NYSE:NT - News) on
Wednesday after the company fired its three top executives and
said ongoing accounting problems may run deeper than expected.
The news sent the cost of Nortel credit protection sharply
higher, suggesting that investors see a rising risk of the
company defaulting. The company's stock price plummeted almost
30 percent as investors fretted that a full-blown financial
scandal was building.
But bond investors were not quite as concerned and are
still valuing Nortel's debt around par. Many market watchers
believe that whatever near-term troubles the company has, a
blow-up of Enron proportions is unlikely.
"The company should weather this storm," said Scott
MacDonald, a bond analyst for Aladdin Capital who owns Nortel
stock but not its bonds. "We have to wait and see in terms of
their financial restating, but I think there is survivability
built into the balance sheet."
Nortel said it expected a restatement of 2003 results to
cut earnings by about 50 percent, but losses for prior years
would be reduced.
The cost of insuring Nortel against default rose to 362
basis points, or $362,000 per year for every $10 million of
principal insured, from about 250 basis points on Tuesday,
traders said.
Credit default spreads of that magnitude mean that
investors are demanding to be compensated as if there were
about a 5 percent chance of the company defaulting on its debt,
up from a 3.3 percent chance on Tuesday.
That compensation accounts for risks that fall short of the
company actually defaulting, such as the risk that the
company's bonds will fall further.
But while the credit derivatives market braced for further
bad news from the company, corporate bond investors still price
Nortel debt around par, suggesting that they are not
particularly worried about default.
"They're lulled by Nortel's liquidity and by the fact that
(Nortel) has raised money," said Margaret Patel, high-yield
portfolio manager for Pioneer Investment Management, who does
not own Nortel debt. "Also, all the restatements are referring
to history as opposed to looking forward."
Standard & Poor's took a skeptical view. It cut Nortel's
long-term corporate credit rating to "B-minus," its
sixth-highest junk rating, from "B."
Nortel said the restatement would not affect its cash
balance, which stood at about $3.6 billion on March 31. The
company does not face a major bond maturity until 2006, when
about C$2.3 billion comes due, analysts said.
Nortel's 6-1/8 percent notes of 2006 fell 2 cents on the
dollar on Wednesday to 100.75 cents on the dollar.
The accounting debacle is a disappointment to credit
investors who had cheered Nortel's comeback story. After losing
more than $27 billion in 2001 when telecommunications spending
cratered, Nortel staunched the red ink by by slashing costs and
improving its product mix.
One consolation for credit investors is that the company
apparently has not manipulated revenues, said Ping Zhao, an
analyst for independent research firm CreditSights.
Still, there is cause for concern, she said.
"My suspicion is that there is something quite major in
cost impairment to warrant the firing," she said.
Analysts' view is that Nortel's bonds could move lower, but
not dramatically.
"You've seen this company go from having huge problems in
terms of revenues slumping on regular basis and profitability
not being there at all to moving in the right direction and
turning around," said Aladdin Capital's MacDonald.
(Additional reporting by Dan Wilchins)
关于ＮＴ的问题看了各位网友的评论，作为一个普通的投资者，我只是想把自己的想
法和各位分享，如有不对，欢迎各位指正。
我们中国有一句话叫做“保垒是最容易从内部攻破的”。凡是投资ＮＴ的人都会关
注ＮＴ的发展史。ＮＴ在２０００年濒于破产的边缘换上了前任总裁ＦＲＡＮＫ
ＤＵＮＮ。ＦＲＡＮＫ ＤＵＮＮ在接任总裁之前是ＮＴ的财务总监。根据ＯＴＴ
ＡＷＡ市民报对这位前总裁的采访，我们得知：ＦＲＡＮＫ自己是不愿意当这个总
裁的，只是临危受命，被推到了这个位置上。虽然ＦＲＡＮＫ是不情愿地当了ＮＴ
总裁来收拾一个烂摊子，但在ＦＲＡＮＫ当值的三年多中，ＮＴ从一个濒于破产的
企业逐步变成了一个扭亏为盈的企业（虽然现在ＮＴ被独立查帐，但昨天公布的第
一次查帐结果已经说明ＮＴ在２００３年仍然是盈利的，虽然盈利数字应减一半，
原因见我前面的贴子）。当然，这里面一定得罪了很多人，很多人失去了工作，下
面的许多基本员工就不用说了，仅是最上层的ＮＴ ＣＥＯ内阁里就有一些付总裁
丢掉了工作。
就在ＯＴＴＡＷＡ市民报在今年二月采访ＦＲＡＮＫ时把ＦＲＡＮＫ说成了英雄似的
人物，紧接着就传出了ＮＴ董事会一致同意要对ＮＴ进行独立的会计审查。请读者
注意：这里对ＮＴ的财务查帐不是像ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ和ＥＮＲＯＮ的情况，那两
个公司造假是由外部发现再导入查帐的。而ＮＴ的财务查帐却是自己董事会自愿导
入的。记得我当时就发过一个贴子，我说，我看不懂ＮＴ发生了什么。因为，ＦＲ
ＡＮＫ自己在当ＮＴ总裁前就是ＮＴ财务总监。这里做个假设，假如你当财务总监
时故意作了假帐，到后来你会自己自愿让别人来查自己的帐吗？这就好比你自己埋
了个地雷，以后你自己再往上踩。这在逻缉上不通。所以，唯一在逻缉上说得通的
理由就是：ＮＴ的最高层发生了不同意见。当然，对我们股民来说，对ＮＴ查帐是
为了把ＮＴ的帐目更为透明，从长远看，对企业是有好处的。现在大家已经知道，
查帐的结果告诉我们：ＮＴ的实际盈利并没有改变，现金储备也没有改变，问题只
是把不应有的盈利和亏损放错了年代。像这一类的问题，已经有网上文章指出，在
ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ和ＥＮＲＯＮ事件发生之前，许多公司的财务帐上都普遍存在这
种情况。现在如果真要对每个企业都查，没准８０％都难逃这一关。只是在ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ和ＥＮＲＯＮ事件发生之后，２００３年美国政府
和加国政府都对大企业作了更严格的规定：凡是延期递交财务报告的，ＳＥＣ和Ｏ
ＳＣ都有权介入调查。其实今年被美国ＳＥＣ介入调查的企业就在十家以上，只是
ＮＴ比较引人注目。
现在，对ＮＴ的查帐已经导致了包括ＦＲＡＮＫ在内的ＮＴ几位高层人士的被开除，
对ＮＴ心怀怨恨的人应该出了一口气了。但是，受到伤害的更多的恐怕还是广大股
民。我同意某些网友的说法：ＮＴ的信誉受到了损害。但是，我不同意某些人的扩
大了的想像，按照这些人的说法（大意）：ＮＴ走到今天还是ＮＴ的技术或市场有
问题。我不相信这种论断是因为这些论断没有事实为依据。帐目问题和技术领域是
不相干的，即使如ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ的财务丑闻也不能掩盖它的市场占有率，这是
两个不同的概念。在北美投资股票的朋友都会对自己投资的公司在技术领域和市场
占有上作自己的分析，何况是投资ＮＴ这类高科技股，要用不同的概念的问题来混
淆ＮＴ问题的本质，明眼人还是比较容易判断的。
法和各位分享，如有不对，欢迎各位指正。
我们中国有一句话叫做“保垒是最容易从内部攻破的”。凡是投资ＮＴ的人都会关
注ＮＴ的发展史。ＮＴ在２０００年濒于破产的边缘换上了前任总裁ＦＲＡＮＫ
ＤＵＮＮ。ＦＲＡＮＫ ＤＵＮＮ在接任总裁之前是ＮＴ的财务总监。根据ＯＴＴ
ＡＷＡ市民报对这位前总裁的采访，我们得知：ＦＲＡＮＫ自己是不愿意当这个总
裁的，只是临危受命，被推到了这个位置上。虽然ＦＲＡＮＫ是不情愿地当了ＮＴ
总裁来收拾一个烂摊子，但在ＦＲＡＮＫ当值的三年多中，ＮＴ从一个濒于破产的
企业逐步变成了一个扭亏为盈的企业（虽然现在ＮＴ被独立查帐，但昨天公布的第
一次查帐结果已经说明ＮＴ在２００３年仍然是盈利的，虽然盈利数字应减一半，
原因见我前面的贴子）。当然，这里面一定得罪了很多人，很多人失去了工作，下
面的许多基本员工就不用说了，仅是最上层的ＮＴ ＣＥＯ内阁里就有一些付总裁
丢掉了工作。
就在ＯＴＴＡＷＡ市民报在今年二月采访ＦＲＡＮＫ时把ＦＲＡＮＫ说成了英雄似的
人物，紧接着就传出了ＮＴ董事会一致同意要对ＮＴ进行独立的会计审查。请读者
注意：这里对ＮＴ的财务查帐不是像ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ和ＥＮＲＯＮ的情况，那两
个公司造假是由外部发现再导入查帐的。而ＮＴ的财务查帐却是自己董事会自愿导
入的。记得我当时就发过一个贴子，我说，我看不懂ＮＴ发生了什么。因为，ＦＲ
ＡＮＫ自己在当ＮＴ总裁前就是ＮＴ财务总监。这里做个假设，假如你当财务总监
时故意作了假帐，到后来你会自己自愿让别人来查自己的帐吗？这就好比你自己埋
了个地雷，以后你自己再往上踩。这在逻缉上不通。所以，唯一在逻缉上说得通的
理由就是：ＮＴ的最高层发生了不同意见。当然，对我们股民来说，对ＮＴ查帐是
为了把ＮＴ的帐目更为透明，从长远看，对企业是有好处的。现在大家已经知道，
查帐的结果告诉我们：ＮＴ的实际盈利并没有改变，现金储备也没有改变，问题只
是把不应有的盈利和亏损放错了年代。像这一类的问题，已经有网上文章指出，在
ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ和ＥＮＲＯＮ事件发生之前，许多公司的财务帐上都普遍存在这
种情况。现在如果真要对每个企业都查，没准８０％都难逃这一关。只是在ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ和ＥＮＲＯＮ事件发生之后，２００３年美国政府
和加国政府都对大企业作了更严格的规定：凡是延期递交财务报告的，ＳＥＣ和Ｏ
ＳＣ都有权介入调查。其实今年被美国ＳＥＣ介入调查的企业就在十家以上，只是
ＮＴ比较引人注目。
现在，对ＮＴ的查帐已经导致了包括ＦＲＡＮＫ在内的ＮＴ几位高层人士的被开除，
对ＮＴ心怀怨恨的人应该出了一口气了。但是，受到伤害的更多的恐怕还是广大股
民。我同意某些网友的说法：ＮＴ的信誉受到了损害。但是，我不同意某些人的扩
大了的想像，按照这些人的说法（大意）：ＮＴ走到今天还是ＮＴ的技术或市场有
问题。我不相信这种论断是因为这些论断没有事实为依据。帐目问题和技术领域是
不相干的，即使如ＷＯＲＬＤＣＯＭ的财务丑闻也不能掩盖它的市场占有率，这是
两个不同的概念。在北美投资股票的朋友都会对自己投资的公司在技术领域和市场
占有上作自己的分析，何况是投资ＮＴ这类高科技股，要用不同的概念的问题来混
淆ＮＴ问题的本质，明眼人还是比较容易判断的。
投资股票不是一件简单的事。有的人到死也不明白这个道理。
