今明两年渥村的房价只会向下, 稳住的可能性都不大

[movingsale123]

it is a crazy world. unemployment is going up (-45,000 statistic Canada), personal bankruptcy is going up (+50%, statistic Canada), mortgage rate is going up (0.75%, major banks), ... and now old house price is going up (1.2%, oreb). It is crazy enough.

oreb,
The average sale price of a residential-class property was $322,795, an increase of 1.2 per cent over July 2008.

那是加拿大的统计数据。渥太华就业市场是不一样的。

 

[movingsale123]

我只留意KANATA的二手房. 上两周看过一个在LAKES的房子. MODEL PLAN和装修都属于惨不忍睹的那种. 就是你看过一次就不想再看的那种. (估计这里有朋友肯定知道我说的是哪一间). 上周竟然也卖掉了!40万以下的楼上4睡房的, 再烂的房子你也得抢. 真是疯狂啊.

非常同意。mls数字要不就是特小的，要不就是最新的。中间几个月的房子都卖没了。剩下的就是有点问题的房子。

 

[又红又专]

经济规律嘛. 涨得太高就会跌得很残, 跌得很残便会涨得很凶. 房子, 股票, 都一样, 只是周期, 幅度不同而已.

However, the market values are irrational for the most time, because they are based on expectation. Expectation is always exaggerated.

 

[Iiris]

房市延后于人力市场。最近渥村全职的招聘广告很少，就业形势不太妙，年底就知道了。

 

[BigBang]

But the government actually recruited more this year.

房市延后于人力市场。最近渥村全职的招聘广告很少，就业形势不太妙，年底就知道了。

 

[苦逼热狗]

自从5月份一来. 现在新房基本上是每月一涨(3000到8000不等)! 我是彻底看不懂了. 这么下去, 房价的涨幅远远高于GDP涨幅或者收入涨幅. 难道渥村的房价永远不会跌吗?

夏天是热季，入冬以后销量就会降低了。
此外明年就推出HST了，所以大家都赶着今年搞定，明年7月前closing。

 

[yycivang]

难道渥村的房价永远不会跌吗?

Expectation.

 

[yycivang]

我只留意KANATA的二手房. 上两周看过一个在LAKES的房子. MODEL PLAN和装修都属于惨不忍睹的那种. 就是你看过一次就不想再看的那种. (估计这里有朋友肯定知道我说的是哪一间). 上周竟然也卖掉了!40万以下的楼上4睡房的, 再烂的房子你也得抢. 真是疯狂啊.

A couple with annual family income of $136,654 can afford a mortage of $1,043,551 ($813,883 + $229,668). To be able to afford a 40W house, all you need is a income of annual family income of 54661.6. most people in Ottawa can do achieve the same.

Couple drowning in real estate debt - The Globe and Mail

keep the party going.

 

[苦逼热狗]

I would not purchase a house of 400k with 55k annual income.
That could only lead to almost zero penny saving for the future.

 

[qbonline]

To avoid the CHMC premium, your annual family income should be at least 10W if you want to borrow 40W from the bank. Otherwise, the bank gives you high-ratio mortgage.

 

[苦逼热狗]

我公司10个月内跳槽了2个去政府
一个软件QA，一个软件开发

 

[BigBang]

1）前一段我看了报纸的统计，说是政府部门招聘职位还增加了；

2）面向大学刚毕业不久学生的招聘Pool仍在不断招人；

3）内部招聘仍很活跃；

4）上个月我认识的某人同时拿到两个Offer；

5）夏季主管多去度假，属于招聘淡季这也是正常的。

BigBang朋友, 不知道你是怎么得出这个结论的. 我从今年2月分起就一直留意政府的工作(没办法, 公司前景大大不妙, 找份铁饭碗好啊, HE HE), 我看到的是每个月POST的工作逐步减少, 尤其是进入夏天以来几乎就没有出过什么新的职位.

我有不少在政府部门工作的朋友, 从跟他们的闲聊中也证实了我的观察.

大家可以去政府招工网站: Job Search.

选择
Where: National Capital and Eastern Ontario Region
Job Categories and Classifications: Computer Related, Technical and Scientific

看看有多少工作出来? 我在2月份看时还有上百个职位. 不过我听说有好多职位不是向外招聘的, 要请熟人网里头递简历. 不知道是真是假.

 

[yycivang]

I would not purchase a house of 400k with 55k annual income.
That could only lead to almost zero penny saving for the future.

When your house is your main investment, The house is your saving for the future.

 

[苦逼热狗]

wow, I guess you are those financial experts who have no cash-flow issue at all, bravo.

 

[mathguy]

从没见有谁提起渥村的失业% compare that with the average in Canada and US.
I think the 房价 should be related to local job condition as well.
While the average jobless rate of all Canada in July was still 8.6%, Ottawa kept the 5.9% which is unbelievable in this global recession time.
OttawaBusinessJournal.com - UPDATE: Unemployment falls to 5.9% in July

The difference was not too much in last 8 months.
Most job cuts from IT in Ottawa have been consumed by the government opportunities soon in this recession time.
That's the beauty of Ottawa...

市场经济, right? Doesn't matter what you say about it, but it does matter about the people have the income and want to buy it. Oh yeah, plus so low a mortgage rate now...