今明两年渥村的房价只会向下, 稳住的可能性都不大

[fungmaomao]

really?

don't see any signs of downward trend in housing prices in ottawa

 

[sailingman]

I‘m not telling any trend here. But the LS graph recalled me the graph of NT.TO in 1999. No sign... really? I am buying a house now because the boss likes the trend of house price shown here despit any possibility of the down trend. The boss is always righ, hopefully.

 

[苦逼热狗]

In the last 20 years or maybe 10 years(I cant recall), the housing price at Ottawa was always increasing, with exception of the Great Depression and .com bubble explode.

 

[yycivang]

wow, I guess you are those financial experts who have no cash-flow issue at all, bravo.

That was the America style, and now it is becoming the Canadian style. In Ottawa, most people work at the Government has stable job AND salary, they cannot ask for a salary increase from their manager AND do not have bonus as in the private sector. Many of those new owner must wish the mortgage rate stays at 4.09% forever. If the rate goes to 6.5%, :blowzy:

 

[BigBang]

So What?

The avg income in Ottawa-Gartineau area is no less than other cities like Toronto. AND people have much more stable jobs.

Potential buyers here are simply qualified for the same or even higher amount of mortgage, while avg house price is much much lower.

That was the America style, and now it is becoming the Canadian style. In Ottawa, most people work at the Government has stable job AND salary, they cannot ask for a salary increase from their manager AND do not have bonus as in the private sector. Many of those new owner must wish the mortgage rate stays at 4.09% forever. If the rate goes to 6.5%, :blowzy:

 

[hooper]

Awesome!! It is my first time to see Bloomberg in this forum. hehehe...... You guys are getting serious about this discussion on housing price.

De-leveraging might be a factor to change consumer behavior, resulting in a downward trend of the local housing price. However, as BigBang said, job stability may mitigate its impact.

The recent local housing market hike could be caused by the expected inflation and HST, probably because the Gov't wants to stablize the housing market before the economy recovers. And no doubt, builders have a very successful marketing strategy.

Ottawa is still a growing city. As long as more people come to this city, the housing market should be ok. Historical data also shows no significant drop on Ottawa's housing price ever. Nortel was totally different. Orange production and US stock market return are highly correlated; in statistics, we say it is spurious. (Statisticians, please do not laugh at me.)

Before the US housing market crashed, articles on housing bubble had already been published on magazines (such as Fortune) in 2005 and 2006. Fortune had a cover picture with a house on the edge of a cliff. Finance gurus in this forum may still remember that article. Yet I have not seen any Canadian articles talking about housing bubble.

A couple of month ago, Metro (a local newspaper) had an article, saying housing cost was higher than before; it did not say any words like "overvalued" or "bubble".

Personally, I would say, if the housing price in Ottawa does not go up in a long term, it will at least stablize at the current level. As I always said, if you like a house, buy it because the cost will be amortized for a long long time (ten maybe twenty years).