要通胀了，房价将在一段时间后大跌

[US$]

The mortgage rate is low now, very low, historic low. Why is the government offering this? Because the house price is dropping and the bubble is bursting. So how can the interest rate save the house price? The affordability.
The affordability is monthly payment divide by monthly income. The monthly payment is P*(1.0+Int) |25year /12month*25year. P is the price of house, and Int is the interest rate. This action help house buyers saving monthly money and reduce the total cost. It looks perfect for now.
However, the government thinks this is not enough because the house price is still falling and the economy is still shrinking. The government decided to take some other actions to stimulates the economy. They are pumping more money into the market. You will get more salary, so the monthly income will be improved. This will make house more affordable (monthly payment divide by monthly income).
This looks more perfect now.
When will our (your and my) salaries get a big raise? I guess it will be two or three years from now. It is a happy thing. Anyway, I can wait for it. Wait a second, where will the interest rate go in the next five years? It will jump up in 10 to 18 months. There is a period in which houses are unaffordable, because monthly payment is increased a lot and the stimulates package has not reached your pocket yet. The reason is that it always takes time for the (salary) raise/s because it is a raise. And we never get the whole raise(=inflation rate), that's why it is called inflation. The mortgage will become so expensive that most people cannot afford it. The owner gonna sell the property or have a foreclosure if the mortgage cannot be renewed. Buyers will feel very painful to take it over unless they have cash. The price of house will drop like a rock at that period. Cash will be the king, the real king at that moment.
A bubble is shrinking. What are we doing now to stop shrinking? Blowing it up again. What will happen for the next. Bang!
The market will be stabilized until most people(here) get multiple raises.
You know what I like to do now? I am going check out the price of some fancy BMW or Lexus. Life is enjoyable and should be enjoyed.


(Don't count on me seriously because I am not an economist. You have your own brain. I do hold some secrets.)

 

[CFCBUG]

通胀的直接影响就是不动产价格上涨. 自住房, 有钱买,有需要, 能买得起就买吧. 等来等去浪费自己的享受跟精力太不值得.
想投资房地产的倒是需要多研究. 经济学家的预测也不一定是对的. 房价的上涨跟下跌也是个缓慢的过程.

 

[US$]

Is there any silver light ahead? Yes.
Check the price monthly. Lock the interest rate frequently. Count the money in your pocket clearly.
The chance is coming when most people are running away.

通胀的直接影响就是不动产价格上涨. This is not always true. Some conditions apply:
1. which surge comes first, interest rate or raising rate (because of inflation)? Interest rate should be more sensitive. I guess the reason is that banks are more smart than bosses.
2. what caused the bubble? If there is already a bubble in real estates, then the interest rate is not able to save the market.
3. The price eventually will go up during the inflation settle down, but there will a long struggling time.

等来等去浪费自己的享受跟精力太不值得. I live in a house owned by myself now. You are absolutely right. You need to take a risk for any investment. You need to take a bill for any enjoyment. There is nothing free in this world. Condoms market becomes better and better in US since the economy is melting down. Hah hah...

The current bursting of US market is caused by the same thing--interest rate. The rate went up from 2.0% to about 4.x% in 2006 because of worries of inflation. Immediately they heard of some abnormal sound which is called subprime. The owners were not able to renew a mortgage. The rate dropped back to 2.0% but the bursting sound did not stop, so the rate dropped again and again.
There is no inflation, but why could it still happen? The real-estates market is too fragile to support any interest rate change. Every American's family could have and was having a house if they want.

Could somebody help me to check out the interest rate and the subprime relationship?

 

[blue1]

房价将大跌，大家千万不要买房， 卖房的赶快低价卖。
希望大家能相信， 我买房就可以拿到好的deal了

The mortgage rate is low now, very low, historic low. Why is the government offering this? Because the house price is dropping and the bubble is bursting. So how can the interest rate save the house price? The affordability.
The affordability is monthly payment divide by monthly income. The monthly payment is P*(1.0+Int) |25year /12month*25year. P is the price of house, and Int is the interest rate. This action help house buyers saving monthly money and reduce the total cost. It looks perfect for now.
However, the government thinks this is not enough because the house price is still falling and the economy is still shrinking. The government decided to take some other actions to stimulates the economy. They are pumping more money into the market. You will get more salary, so the monthly income will be improved. This will make house more affordable (monthly payment divide by monthly income).
This looks more perfect now.
When will our (your and my) salaries get a big raise? I guess it will be two or three years from now. It is a happy thing. Anyway, I can wait for it. Wait a second, where will the interest rate go in the next five years? It will jump up in 10 to 18 months. There is a period in which houses are unaffordable, because monthly payment is increased a lot and the stimulates package has not reached your pocket yet. The reason is that it always takes time for the (salary) raise/s because it is a raise. And we never get the whole raise(=inflation rate), that's why it is called inflation. The mortgage will become so expensive that most people cannot afford it. The owner gonna sell the property or have a foreclosure if the mortgage cannot be renewed. Buyers will feel very painful to take it over unless they have cash. The price of house will drop like a rock at that period. Cash will be the king, the real king at that moment.
A bubble is shrinking. What are we doing now to stop shrinking? Blowing it up again. What will happen for the next. Bang!
The market will be stabilized until most people(here) get multiple raises.
You know what I like to do now? I am going check out the price of some fancy BMW or Lexus. Life is enjoyable and should be enjoyed.


(Don't count on me seriously because I am not an economist. You have your own brain. I do hold some secrets.)

 

[maple]

在渥太华买房的人多数是自住. 不象在多伦多等地, 买了装修一下,隔成一间间的租出去, 和房客和住或是倒买倒卖. 渥太华不是一个好的投资的地方. 如果想靠投资渥太华的房地产来收益的话, 期望值不要太高. 在这里买房的是真的需要改善生活. 这也是为什么渥太华的房地产一直是不温不热的原因. 房价跌涨肯定受经济的影响. 今明两年的房地产肯定是不会涨的. 但是如果是买了自住的话, 价格能承受, 地段, 房型喜欢就应该买. 因为你在一个房子里不可能只住一两年. 房价长期是看涨的. 永远没有人知道什么时候是房价的最低点, 就象股票市场一样. 但是房子和股票又不一样, 最大的不同是, 房子是可以住的, 可以让家更象一个家. 有些人看跌房价, 有些人看涨房价, 任何时候都有. 大家可以讨论, 不要吵吵闹闹, 甚至造谣中伤. 有人可能不喜欢ottawa,在不久将来要离开这个城市, 那就不要买房, ottawa房价的涨跌和你也没关系. 想在这里呆的, 如果觉得房地产还没到最低点, 那你就等, 说明你对房子的需要不是很强烈. 好多人说裁员会给ottawa带来很大的影响, 但并不是所有的被裁的家庭会离开ottawa. 更何况, 现在离开ottawa, 去其他地方会有工作吗?人口的流动是正常的, 经济好的时候我看到好多人去了美国. 因为那里好找工作, 现在硅谷还好找吗? 如果有家庭的人一般不会冒冒然的说走就走, 往往会权衡全家的意见, 本地找还是各处找, 找到后会一个人工作个大半年, 觉得不错, 然后卖房, 搬走. 已经有房的不会因为没了工作马上卖了房子, 卖了房子难道人不要住了吗?还是得租房. 租房的成本会低一点, 但是对与已经还清贷款和已经贷款几年的人来说, 这个差异会很小, 但是感觉完全会不一样, 人不到万不得以, 是不会这么做的. 房地产市场很有区域性, 我们住ottawa, 就应该看Ottawa的普遍情况, ottawa的房地产肯定受大经济影响, 但是ottawa 又有自己的特点. 通涨到底会不会发生, 谁都不知道, 通涨后房价是涨是跌, 也没人知道. 请不要杞人忧天. 生活还得继续, 想怎么活就怎么活, 只要开心. 想买房就买房, 自己的直觉最重要. 不要受别人的意见左右.

 

[PLA]

比较赞同。
偶其实寄希望的是子女自立的那些人。反正我不喜欢买新房。
很多人退休一是要换小房，二是可能到暖和点的地方去，而且他们当初购房成本低，希望这种房能降点吧。偶不贪，有个10-15%就觉得差不多了。

在渥太华买房的人多数是自住. 不象在多伦多等地, 买了装修一下,隔成一间间的租出去, 和房客和住或是倒买倒卖. 渥太华不是一个好的投资的地方. 如果想靠投资渥太华的房地产来收益的话, 期望值不要太高. 在这里买房的是真的需要改善生活. 这也是为什么渥太华的房地产一直是不温不热的原因. 房价跌涨肯定受经济的影响. 今明两年的房地产肯定是不会涨的. 但是如果是买了自住的话, 价格能承受, 地段, 房型喜欢就应该买. 因为你在一个房子里不可能只住一两年. 房价长期是看涨的. 永远没有人知道什么时候是房价
的最低点, 就象股票市场一样. 但是房子和股票又不一样, 最大的不同是, 房子是可以住的, 可以让家更象一个家. 有些人看跌房价, 有些人看涨房价, 任何时候都有. 大家可以讨论, 不要吵吵闹闹, 甚至造谣中伤. 有人可能不喜欢ottawa,在不久将来要离开这个城市, 那就不要买房, ottawa房价的涨跌和你也没关系. 想在这里呆的, 如果觉得房地产还没到最低点, 那你就等, 说明你对房子的需要不是很强烈. 好多人说裁员会给ottawa带来很大的影响, 但并不是所有的被裁的家庭会离开ottawa. 更何况, 现在离开ottawa, 去其他地方会有工作吗?人口的流动是正常的, 经济好的时候我看到好多人去了美国. 因为那里好找工作, 现在硅谷还好找吗? 如果有家庭的人一般不会冒冒然的说走就走, 往往会权衡全家的意见, 本地找还是各处找, 找到后会一个人工作个大半年, 觉得不错, 然后卖房, 搬走. 已经有房的不会因为没了工作马上卖了房子, 卖了房子难道人不要住了吗?还是得租房. 租房的成本会低一点, 但是对与已经还清贷款和已经贷款几年的人来说, 这个差异会很小, 但是感觉完全会不一样, 人不到万不得以, 是不会这么做的. 房地产市场很有区域性, 我们住ottawa, 就应该看Ottawa的普遍情况, ottawa的房地产肯定受大经济影响, 但是ottawa 又有自己的特点. 通涨到底会不会发生, 谁都不知道, 通涨后房价是涨是跌, 也没人知道. 请不要杞人忧天. 生活还得继续, 想怎么活就怎么活, 只要开心. 想买房就买房, 自己的直觉最重要. 不要受别人的意见左右.

 

[hooper]

There is an article talking about the concern of inflation. The article was either on CFA Newsletters or Wall Street Journals. Cannot remember. A while ago, some guy on Bloomberg said: comparing to the weak economy, inflation is less of a concern right now. I am sure after the US government pumps 1 trillion dollars into the market, everybody may worry about inflations; however, the possible date for implementing this super big stimulas plan is in May. Nobody knows what will happen at that time. Sometimes, Government just wants to send out signals rather than really do it. (Correct me if I am wrong.) Besides, this is in US!! How much has Canadian government pumped into market ? 18 billion ? A very limited amount. If you check BoC's website ( Consumer Price Index, 1995 to present- Monetary Policy- Bank of Canada ), you will find YOY CPI never be higher 3% for any six consecutive months. This is Canada where the government runs conservative financial policies; we won't make big money like US guys, but we are exposed to less risk.

 

[colonel]

Is there any silver light ahead? Yes.
Check the price monthly. Lock the interest rate frequently. Count the money in your pocket clearly.
The chance is coming when most people are running away.

通胀的直接影响就是不动产价格上涨. This is not always true. Some conditions apply:
1. which surge comes first, interest rate or raising rate (because of inflation)? Interest rate should be more sensitive. I guess the reason is that banks are more smart than bosses.
2. what caused the bubble? If there is already a bubble in real estates, then the interest rate is not able to save the market.
3. The price eventually will go up during the inflation settle down, but there will a long struggling time.

等来等去浪费自己的享受跟精力太不值得. I live in a house owned by myself now. You are absolutely right. You need to take a risk for any investment. You need to take a bill for any enjoyment. There is nothing free in this world. Condoms market becomes better and better in US since the economy is melting down. Hah hah...

The current bursting of US market is caused by the same thing--interest rate. The rate went up from 2.0% to about 4.x% in 2006 because of worries of inflation. Immediately they heard of some abnormal sound which is called subprime. The owners were not able to renew a mortgage. The rate dropped back to 2.0% but the bursting sound did not stop, so the rate dropped again and again.
There is no inflation, but why can it still happen? The real-estates market is too fragile to support any interest rate change. Every american could have and was having if they want.

Could somebody help me to check out the interest rate and the subprime relationship?

Subprime problem emerged when interest rate was high I believe( the interets rate in US was 5.25% in 2007). Too many peopel can not pay interest.
Same is true if BOC jumps up interest rate. I have read prime rate will increase 2-3% next year. That is 20-30%(not the exact number) increase on your mortgage payment. Those who are waiting for a price drop(but may never happen) will pay more mortgage.

 

[US$]

There could be a big rebound in Ottawa and some parts of Canada in the next few months because of a such low interest rate and the improving commodity's price.
But the commodity's price will change the situation of inflation which will affect the interest rate. How soon?

 

[clothes]

City housing prices rise: Realty report

Metro - City housing prices rise: Realty report

 

[FromVancouver]

City housing prices rise: Realty report

Metro - City housing prices rise: Realty report

"according to a quarterly Royal LePage House Price Survey:

This survey probably done by a realty company, which I never believe, sometimes, misleading the people.
THE REPORT FRON statistics canada or Ontaril business association is more fair.

"standard two-storey homes and detached bungalows, rising an average of 2.8 per cent year-over-year to $318,500 and 1.9 per cent to $317,500 respectively."

In most Ottawa area (city), I never see house price is lower than 350,000, most is over 400,000 even if it is very poor and small lot.

So Ottawa house price is not cheap, specially the condo price, is crazy unreasonable high, almost the same high as that in Great Vancouver-the highest price in Canada.

 

[colonel]

City housing prices rise: Realty report

Metro - City housing prices rise: Realty report

But many people do not care. They may continue to rent another 7 years, waiting for the price to drop. A guy on Rolia waited from 2000 to 2007 and the price doubled. LOL

 

[Spieler]

房屋市场的价格与就业情况的好坏息息相关，但不是同步，节奏要慢些才会反应出来。通常要3-4个月才影响到房价。94年房价在谷底，就业情况已经开始好转，但好转的经济又带动了通胀，利率高企，房价一直低位徘徊。我认为今年的房价调整应该在八，九月。经济情况好转了，房价就不会降，经济情况如果继续这样糟，房价必降。

 

[ccc]

It is to some extend like the weather. There is not much you can do about the prices.

 

[liwen85]

"经济学家的预测也不一定是对的". [/quote]

房价不懂也不关心。但深信：经济学家的预测一定是不对的.

我醉欲眠卿且去，明朝有意抱琴来。